South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.5 #67
Expected Predictive Rating +7.4 #76
Pace 78.1 #15
Improvement +1.4 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 C A B- B+ A
Defense #86 C+ B- B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.11 #244 +2.9 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.61 #347 -5.4 #362
Three Pointers 47% #69 0.96 #255 +1.5 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #209 -1.0 #208
Freethrows 0.37 #21 74% #141 0.27 #27
Second Chance 38.9% #12 1.21 #26 0.47 #10
Turnovers 14.9% #84
Total Offense +5.3 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.05 #61 +2.8 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #79 0.73 #129 -1.0 #262
Three Pointers 39% #242 1.05 #230 +0.6 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #107 +2.4 #106
Freethrows 0.33 #284 69% #49 0.23 #242
Second Chance 29.8% #145 0.90 #32 0.27 #68
Turnovers 18.7% #59
Total Defense +3.2 #86

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #7 -1.0% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #281 -3.7% #110
Possession Length 15.2 #25 17.2 #162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #49 0.14 #74
Improvement +1.1 #125 +0.3 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 32.2% 25.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 45.6% 53.9% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round29.6% 31.8% 25.0%
Second Round6.5% 7.4% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 25 - 46 - 7
Quad 39 - 415 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 96% +15  1 - 0 +23 +12 C+ A- D+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 65 George Washington L 95 - 99 49% -1  1 - 1 +5 +7 F A+ B+ -2 D+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  2 - 1 +27 +18 C- A+ B +10 A+ D+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 153 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 69% +9  3 - 1 +22 +23 B- A+ A- -3 B F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 63 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 37% -2  3 - 2 +4 +13 A+ C+ C- -8 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 42% -3  3 - 3 -2 -6 F C A+ +5 A B+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 166 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 80% -5  4 - 3 +5 +3 D B- C+ +1 D B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 102 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 63% -8  4 - 4 -10 -4 F B- B+ -6 F B+ B+
 Thu, Dec 4 38 Utah St. W 74 - 61 43% +15  5 - 4 +23 +4 B C D +19 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 160 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 86% +2  6 - 4 +3 +8 C- A- C -5 B+ D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 16 @Alabama L 93 - 104 12% -8  6 - 5 +10 +17 C A+ F+ -5 B- C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 258 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 93% +15  7 - 5 +17 +12 B- A+ B +4 B+ D+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 118 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 80% +3  7 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 C B+ B -6 C A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 144 @North Texas W 74 - 70 67% +0  8 - 6 1 - 1 +8 +10 C+ A+ F+ -2 D C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 70 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 40% +8  9 - 6 2 - 1 +26 +17 B+ A+ B- +8 A A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 262 East Carolina W 82 - 71 93% +11  10 - 6 3 - 1 +2 +3 C- F A+ -1 C+ B- D-
 Sun, Jan 18 99 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 73% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +6 C C+ B- -5 C- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 118 @UAB W 82 - 69 60% +8  11 - 7 4 - 2 +19 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ C- B-
 Sun, Jan 25 101 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 73% +2  12 - 7 5 - 2 +16 +16 D- A+ B+ -0 A+ C- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 175 @Tulane W 97 - 83 74% +11  13 - 7 6 - 2 +16 +18 D A+ A -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 147 @Temple W 81 - 76 67%
 Wed, Feb 4 341 Texas San Antonio W 92 - 69 99%
 Sun, Feb 8 70 Tulsa W 86 - 83 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 99 @Wichita St. W 78 - 77 52%
 Sun, Feb 15 101 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 82 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 100 Memphis W 81 - 75 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 230 @Rice W 83 - 74 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 175 Tulane W 85 - 72 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 100 @Memphis W 79 - 78 52%
 Sun, Mar 8 165 Charlotte W 84 - 72 87%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 5 +8 +5 C A B- +3 C+ B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 8.3 19.0 13.8 3.9 45.6 1st
2nd 0.2 5.8 14.1 5.0 0.3 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.0 3.3 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.2 2.9 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.2 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.5 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 0.7 3.6 9.3 18.4 25.8 24.0 14.1 3.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.9    3.9
15-3 98.1% 13.8    11.8 2.0 0.0
14-4 79.0% 19.0    9.7 8.0 1.2
13-5 32.4% 8.3    1.2 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.6% 45.6 26.6 13.6 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.9% 47.5% 39.7% 7.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 2.0 13.0%
15-3 14.1% 40.2% 38.2% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.3 4.5 0.9 8.4 3.2%
14-4 24.0% 34.2% 33.9% 0.3% 11.3 0.1 5.6 2.5 0.0 15.8 0.4%
13-5 25.8% 30.2% 30.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 3.8 3.9 0.0 18.0 0.1%
12-6 18.4% 23.4% 23.4% 11.7 1.4 2.9 0.1 14.1
11-7 9.3% 17.1% 17.1% 11.9 0.3 1.2 0.1 7.7
10-8 3.6% 12.7% 12.7% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.2
9-9 0.7% 4.9% 4.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.9% 29.2% 0.7% 11.3 70.1 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 10.1 0.3 1.6 3.6 24.9 25.6 44.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 17.5% 10.6 6.5 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 15.9% 10.8 0.7 1.3 13.9