South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#86
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#91
Pace77.6#24
Improvement-0.4#211

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#85
First Shot-1.2#208
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#6
Layup/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#365
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#246
Freethrows+2.5#56
Improvement-1.7#302

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#88
First Shot+3.5#66
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#249
Layups/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows-1.1#260
Improvement+1.3#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 25.4% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.6 11.1 11.7
.500 or above 92.8% 98.4% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 94.6% 88.9%
Conference Champion 21.0% 28.1% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.4% 1.4% 0.3%
First Round18.3% 24.7% 17.6%
Second Round4.0% 6.6% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 54 - 8
Quad 38 - 312 - 12
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 343 Florida A&M W 102-67 96%     1 - 0 +20.5 +10.0 +6.1
  Sat, Nov 8 82 George Washington L 95-99 47%     1 - 1 +3.3 +6.0 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +28.5 +19.7 +9.8
  Sun, Nov 16 162 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 63%     3 - 1 +22.0 +22.3 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 19 53 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 26%     3 - 2 +5.3 +13.7 -7.2
  Wed, Nov 26 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 34%     3 - 3 -1.1 -2.4 +1.7
  Thu, Nov 27 147 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 71%     4 - 3 +6.8 +2.3 +3.1
  Fri, Nov 28 72 Colorado St. L 68-83 45%     4 - 4 -7.1 -4.1 -3.3
  Thu, Dec 4 46 Utah St. W 74-61 43%     5 - 4 +21.3 +3.7 +17.5
  Wed, Dec 10 170 College of Charleston W 81-75 83%     6 - 4 +2.2 +7.0 -4.7
  Wed, Dec 17 15 @Alabama L 83-97 10%    
  Sun, Dec 21 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-70 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 119 UAB W 84-78 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 145 @North Texas W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 83 @Tulsa L 78-82 37%    
  Wed, Jan 14 280 East Carolina W 85-69 93%    
  Sun, Jan 18 100 Wichita St. W 78-73 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 119 @UAB W 81-80 51%    
  Sun, Jan 25 117 Florida Atlantic W 84-78 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 206 @Tulane W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 158 @Temple W 83-80 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 286 Texas San Antonio W 86-70 93%    
  Sun, Feb 8 83 Tulsa W 81-79 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 100 @Wichita St. L 75-76 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 117 @Florida Atlantic W 82-81 51%    
  Thu, Feb 19 75 Memphis W 80-78 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 208 @Rice W 79-72 72%    
  Sun, Mar 1 206 Tulane W 86-73 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 75 @Memphis L 77-81 35%    
  Sun, Mar 8 194 Charlotte W 80-68 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.2 6.3 3.8 1.3 0.3 21.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.9 4.9 1.2 0.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 7.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.2 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.2 8.6 11.9 14.6 15.4 14.1 11.8 7.5 3.9 1.3 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 97.5% 3.8    3.5 0.3
15-3 83.5% 6.3    4.5 1.7 0.1
14-4 52.5% 6.2    2.7 2.8 0.7 0.1
13-5 19.3% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 12.8 6.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 71.1% 50.0% 21.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.1%
17-1 1.3% 59.5% 47.8% 11.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 22.4%
16-2 3.9% 41.2% 37.2% 4.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.2 2.3 6.5%
15-3 7.5% 34.2% 33.1% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 5.0 1.7%
14-4 11.8% 29.0% 28.6% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 1.7 1.6 0.1 8.4 0.5%
13-5 14.1% 23.4% 23.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.1 10.8 0.1%
12-6 15.4% 17.9% 17.8% 0.0% 11.9 0.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.7 0.0%
11-7 14.6% 13.2% 13.2% 12.1 0.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 12.7
10-8 11.9% 8.3% 8.3% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.9
9-9 8.6% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0
8-10 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
7-11 3.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.5% 18.0% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 7.1 8.8 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 81.5 0.6%