Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #334
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Pace 67.5 #222
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #268 C- D C D B
Defense #355 D D D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.11 #242 -2.8 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #346 0.54 #363 -4.9 #360
Three Pointers 54% #4 0.97 #236 +5.6 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #239 -2.1 #239
Freethrows 0.25 #317 72% #206 0.18 #309
Second Chance 28.9% #230 0.89 #343 0.26 #304
Turnovers 16.8% #202
Total Offense -3.5 #268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.30 #337 -2.7 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.69 #83 +1.0 #113
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.12 #307 -2.8 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.5 #314
Freethrows 0.33 #273 75% #310 0.25 #289
Second Chance 31.3% #209 1.24 #352 0.39 #328
Turnovers 13.2% #338
Total Defense -7.6 #355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #49 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #287 8.4% #326
Possession Length 18.6 #299 16.9 #97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #329 0.19 #257
Improvement +2.1 #75 -2.5 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 13.8% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 22.7% 53.0%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 137 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 8% -11  0 - 1 -3 +6 C+ F+ B- -9 B F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -34 -9 D C D -20 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 178 Harvard L 52 - 75 26% -9  0 - 3 -27 -18 F D+ F -12 F B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 174 @Cornell L 73 - 86 12% -6  0 - 4 -11 -13 F F C+ +3 C B B-
 Fri, Nov 21 159 @Marist L 65 - 76 10% -4  0 - 5 -8 +2 B F C+ -11 D+ F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 311 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 41% -10  0 - 6 -26 -7 D- F+ C- -19 F C- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 41% +2  1 - 6 -1 +8 D- C+ B+ -8 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 29 326 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 58% +3  2 - 6 -10 -5 C- F+ F+ -6 B- F D
 Tue, Dec 2 65 George Washington L 70 - 84 7% -5  2 - 7 -8 -0 A- F C+ -9 A- F C
 Fri, Dec 12 260 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 21% +5  3 - 7 +0 -8 F F+ D +8 B- B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 362 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 77% +4  4 - 7 -9 +3 B+ C- F+ -13 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 304 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 29% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +3 C- A- F -2 C- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 214 Colgate L 69 - 76 32% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A- B- -16 D+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 318 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 55% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -20 -7 F D+ A -13 C D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 286 @Boston University L 91 - 100 25% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +15 B- C+ B- -28 F D D
 Wed, Jan 14 323 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 34% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +1 D D C -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 233 American L 67 - 78 35% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -18 -1 C D+ B- -18 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 21 322 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 34% +10  6 - 12 2 - 5 -4 +13 B+ D+ D+ -16 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 175 @Navy L 56 - 84 12% -12  6 - 13 2 - 6 -26 -7 C F F+ -22 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 304 Lehigh W 67 - 64 51% +3  7 - 13 3 - 6 -8 -8 C- F+ D+ -1 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 323 Holy Cross W 74 - 72 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 214 @Colgate L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 315 Lafayette W 75 - 74 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 286 Boston University L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 233 @American L 69 - 79 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 318 @Loyola Maryland L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 Navy L 67 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 322 Bucknell W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 315 @Lafayette L 72 - 77 32%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -11 -4 C- D C -8 D D D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 1.3 6.4 2.9 0.2 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 7.5 5.2 0.6 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 9.4 1.2 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 2.0 11.0 3.7 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.8 8.7 8.0 0.3 17.8 9th
10th 1.8 8.3 8.1 1.4 19.7 10th
Total 1.8 9.1 18.9 24.5 22.1 14.5 7.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 1.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-9 7.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 6.8
8-10 14.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 14.2
7-11 22.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.9
6-12 24.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 24.1
5-13 18.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.8
4-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%