Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #335
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #311
Pace 67.5 #224
Improvement -0.4 #204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #274 C- D C D B
Defense #355 D D D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.11 #242 -2.8 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #345 0.54 #363 -4.9 #360
Three Pointers 54% #4 0.97 #236 +5.6 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #241 -2.2 #242
Freethrows 0.25 #319 72% #209 0.18 #307
Second Chance 28.9% #229 0.88 #344 0.26 #308
Turnovers 16.7% #200
Total Offense -3.5 #274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.30 #336 -2.7 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.70 #85 +0.9 #117
Three Pointers 42% #147 1.12 #305 -2.7 #293
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #313 -4.4 #313
Freethrows 0.33 #272 75% #309 0.25 #290
Second Chance 31.3% #213 1.24 #354 0.39 #328
Turnovers 13.2% #340
Total Defense -7.6 #355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #50 0.3% #188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #287 8.4% #325
Possession Length 18.6 #298 16.9 #94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #335 0.19 #257
Improvement +2.1 #77 -2.5 #315

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 13.6% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.2% 23.2% 52.5%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 1.0%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 128 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 8% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- F+ B -9 B F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -34 -9 D C D -20 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 177 Harvard L 52 - 75 26% -9  0 - 3 -27 -18 F D+ F -12 F B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 174 @Cornell L 73 - 86 12% -6  0 - 4 -11 -13 F F C+ +4 C B B-
 Fri, Nov 21 159 @Marist L 65 - 76 10% -4  0 - 5 -8 +2 B- F C -11 D+ F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 311 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 41% -10  0 - 6 -26 -7 D- F+ C- -19 F C- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 42% +2  1 - 6 -1 +7 D- B- A- -8 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 29 326 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 58% +3  2 - 6 -10 -5 C- F F+ -6 B- F D
 Tue, Dec 2 65 George Washington L 70 - 84 7% -5  2 - 7 -8 +0 A- F C+ -9 A- F C
 Fri, Dec 12 258 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 20% +5  3 - 7 +1 -8 F F+ D +9 B- B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 362 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 78% +4  4 - 7 -9 +3 B C- D- -13 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 304 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 29% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +3 C- A- F -2 C- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 213 Colgate L 69 - 76 32% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A- B- -16 D+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 317 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 55% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -20 -7 F D+ A -13 C D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @Boston University L 91 - 100 25% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +15 B- C+ B- -28 F D D
 Wed, Jan 14 325 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 34% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +1 D D C -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 233 American L 67 - 78 35% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -18 -1 C D+ B- -18 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 21 323 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 34% +10  6 - 12 2 - 5 -4 +13 B+ D+ D+ -16 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 178 @Navy L 56 - 84 12% -12  6 - 13 2 - 6 -26 -7 C F F+ -22 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 304 Lehigh W 67 - 64 51% +3  7 - 13 3 - 6 -8 -8 C- F+ D+ -1 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 325 Holy Cross W 74 - 72 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 213 @Colgate L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Lafayette W 75 - 74 55%
 Wed, Feb 11 283 Boston University L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 233 @American L 69 - 79 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 317 @Loyola Maryland L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 178 Navy L 67 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 323 Bucknell W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 @Lafayette L 72 - 77 33%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -11 -4 C- D C -8 D D D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 1.3 6.0 2.6 0.2 10.1 5th
6th 0.3 7.2 5.3 0.4 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 10.3 1.1 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 11.4 3.7 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.8 8.5 8.0 0.4 17.7 9th
10th 1.9 7.7 8.8 1.3 0.0 19.8 10th
Total 1.9 8.5 19.0 24.9 22.9 14.0 6.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 2.0% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.1 1.8
9-9 6.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 6.1
8-10 14.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.5 13.6
7-11 22.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 22.6
6-12 24.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 24.7
5-13 19.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.9
4-14 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%