Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.1 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +29.4 #3
Pace 64.2 #303
Improvement -4.5 #340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #26 A- B+ C+ C B
Defense #5 A+ B+ B C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.35 #15 +6.6 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #292 0.90 #32 -0.8 #221
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.07 #109 +1.6 #128
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #20 +7.3 #19
Freethrows 0.31 #145 71% #220 0.22 #159
Second Chance 36.2% #37 1.13 #76 0.41 #38
Turnovers 15.8% #142
Total Offense +9.0 #26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 0.87 #2 +4.7 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #51 0.70 #88 -1.1 #270
Three Pointers 34% #344 0.79 #4 +7.3 #3
1st FG Attempt 0.80 #2 +11.0 #2
Freethrows 0.32 #258 72% #163 0.23 #248
Second Chance 25.9% #38 0.89 #20 0.23 #16
Turnovers 19.1% #50
Total Defense +11.1 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #59 -0.9% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.2% #21 -20.7% #2
Possession Length 18.0 #238 18.1 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #124 0.10 #19
Improvement -2.3 #301 -2.2 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.7% 5.6% 2.2%
#1 Seed 30.3% 34.1% 18.9%
Top 2 Seed 71.9% 76.5% 58.0%
Top 4 Seed 98.7% 99.3% 96.9%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 82.7% 86.5% 71.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.8% 98.1% 97.0%
Sweet Sixteen68.3% 69.7% 64.2%
Elite Eight37.9% 39.3% 33.7%
Final Four18.9% 20.1% 15.3%
Championship Game9.0% 9.5% 7.4%
National Champion3.7% 4.0% 2.9%

Next Game: Creighton (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 25 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 3
Quad 210 - 121 - 4
Quad 35 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 333 New Haven W 79 - 55 100% +12  1 - 0 +10 +6 C B+ D+ +5 C A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 319 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  2 - 0 +51 +24 A+ A+ C +22 A+ A A+
 Mon, Nov 10 170 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  3 - 0 +23 +18 A+ A A- +6 A+ A- C-
 Sat, Nov 15 14 BYU W 86 - 84 56% +9  4 - 0 +21 +16 A+ B+ F +5 C+ D A+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 45% -4  4 - 1 +17 +12 A+ D+ A+ +5 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 344 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  5 - 1 +8 -1 D- C+ B- +11 A B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 6 Illinois W 74 - 61 47% +10  6 - 1 +34 +12 A+ B- D- +22 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kansas W 61 - 56 47% -2  7 - 1 +26 +7 B- A+ F +20 A+ A+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 311 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  8 - 1 +12 +12 C+ C A+ +1 C- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 5 Florida W 77 - 73 46% +2  9 - 1 +25 +17 A+ B B +8 B A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 33 Texas W 71 - 63 80% +6  10 - 1 +19 +3 A+ B- F +16 A+ A- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 60 Butler W 79 - 60 90% +10  11 - 1 1 - 0 +25 +8 A- A+ F +17 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 95 @DePaul W 72 - 54 86% +5  12 - 1 2 - 0 +27 +7 B- A D +20 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 83 @Xavier W 90 - 67 83% +18  13 - 1 3 - 0 +33 +19 A+ A- D+ +13 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 93 Marquette W 73 - 57 94% +11  14 - 1 4 - 0 +19 +3 D B- A- +16 A+ A B+
 Wed, Jan 7 66 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 79% -5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +16 +16 A+ C- C+ +0 C- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 95 DePaul W 72 - 60 94% +15  16 - 1 6 - 0 +15 +9 A D D- +7 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 53 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 74% +7  17 - 1 7 - 0 +18 +13 A- A+ D- +6 A D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 84% +4  18 - 1 8 - 0 +11 +7 D B- A+ +5 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 36 Villanova W 75 - 67 OT 81% -2  19 - 1 9 - 0 +19 +13 D+ A+ A+ +6 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 27 66 Providence W 87 - 81 91% +4  20 - 1 10 - 0 +11 +10 B B- B- +1 B+ B B-
 Sat, Jan 31 55 @Creighton W 76 - 69 75%
 Tue, Feb 3 83 Xavier W 82 - 66 94%
 Fri, Feb 6 18 @St. John's L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 11 60 @Butler W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 89 Georgetown W 79 - 62 94%
 Wed, Feb 18 55 Creighton W 79 - 66 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 36 @Villanova W 69 - 66 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 18 St. John's W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Seton Hall W 71 - 58 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 93 @Marquette W 78 - 67 86%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +20 +9 A- B+ C+ +11 A+ B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.2 16.1 28.4 24.6 8.9 82.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 6.6 5.2 0.7 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 10.8 21.3 29.1 24.6 8.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 8.9    8.9
19-1 100.0% 24.6    24.6
18-2 97.5% 28.4    24.2 4.1
17-3 75.7% 16.1    9.9 6.2 0.0
16-4 38.9% 4.2    1.8 2.2 0.2
15-5 10.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 82.7% 82.7 69.6 12.8 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 8.9% 100.0% 59.3% 40.7% 1.3 6.1 2.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 24.6% 100.0% 54.9% 45.1% 1.6 12.1 11.1 1.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 29.1% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.9 8.6 14.6 5.3 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 21.3% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 2.4 3.0 9.4 7.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.8% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 2.9 0.5 3.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.9% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 3.4 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.1% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 0.2% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 2.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 1.2 77.0 22.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 100.0% 1.4 59.8 37.9 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.5 54.3 41.7 3.9