Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#43
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#45
Pace77.0#30
Improvement-1.4#278

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#58
First Shot+7.1#24
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#253
Layup/Dunks+7.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#99
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement+0.4#141

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+2.1#106
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#11
Layups/Dunks+7.2#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#309
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#226
Freethrows-1.9#301
Improvement-1.8#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 45.8% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.7% 22.2% 10.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.7% 97.3%
Conference Champion 44.9% 45.3% 36.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.7% 7.8% 4.9%
First Round41.8% 42.4% 27.7%
Second Round19.2% 19.5% 10.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.3% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 26 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 114 - 6
Quad 412 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 214 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 94%     1 - 0 +18.7 +8.6 +7.8
  Thu, Nov 6 338 Chicago St. W 108-86 98%     2 - 0 +8.1 +7.9 -3.9
  Mon, Nov 10 238 Lindenwood W 109-66 95%     3 - 0 +35.8 +19.3 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 91 Grand Canyon W 78-64 80%     4 - 0 +16.8 +3.5 +12.4
  Fri, Nov 21 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 95%     5 - 0 +24.4 +12.4 +11.8
  Thu, Nov 27 74 Santa Clara W 71-70 65%     6 - 0 +8.8 +0.0 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 28 92 Stanford L 77-78 72%     6 - 1 +4.7 +4.2 +0.6
  Tue, Dec 2 134 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 75%     7 - 1 +25.7 +15.1 +8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 323 Central Michigan W 107-65 98%     8 - 1 +29.3 +28.5 +1.3
  Sat, Dec 13 95 San Francisco W 85-75 81%     9 - 1 +12.5 +12.7 -0.3
  Wed, Dec 17 227 Bethune-Cookman W 86-67 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 88-63 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 173 Saint Joseph's W 84-68 93%    
  Wed, Jan 7 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 239 @La Salle W 80-67 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 196 Fordham W 81-64 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 Richmond W 85-75 82%    
  Tue, Jan 20 138 @Duquesne W 86-79 74%    
  Fri, Jan 23 111 @St. Bonaventure W 78-73 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 82 George Washington W 87-80 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 73 Dayton W 81-74 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 127 @Davidson W 79-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 239 La Salle W 83-64 96%    
  Fri, Feb 13 287 @Loyola Chicago W 85-69 92%    
  Tue, Feb 17 115 @Rhode Island W 79-74 69%    
  Fri, Feb 20 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-76 64%    
  Tue, Feb 24 73 @Dayton W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 138 Duquesne W 89-76 88%    
  Wed, Mar 4 287 Loyola Chicago W 88-66 97%    
  Sat, Mar 7 77 @George Mason W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 8.2 13.4 12.5 6.8 1.9 44.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.5 8.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.2 7.3 11.5 16.5 18.1 17.5 13.1 6.8 1.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 99.9% 6.8    6.7 0.2
16-2 94.8% 12.5    10.6 1.8 0.0
15-3 76.6% 13.4    8.5 4.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 45.1% 8.2    2.8 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.9% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.9% 44.9 30.7 10.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 97.1% 55.2% 41.9% 4.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.6%
17-1 6.8% 89.1% 48.0% 41.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.7 79.0%
16-2 13.1% 74.9% 41.9% 33.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 2.0 0.0 3.3 56.7%
15-3 17.5% 59.8% 37.9% 21.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 5.0 0.1 7.0 35.3%
14-4 18.1% 42.8% 30.8% 12.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 5.3 0.3 10.3 17.4%
13-5 16.5% 31.2% 25.3% 6.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 8.0%
12-6 11.5% 21.4% 19.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.0 2.8%
11-7 7.3% 15.4% 14.8% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 6.1 0.7%
10-8 4.2% 9.9% 9.5% 0.3% 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.4%
9-9 1.9% 6.7% 6.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.8
8-10 0.9% 6.1% 6.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.2% 30.0% 15.2% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 3.2 5.1 10.0 19.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 54.8 21.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 3.7 6.0 13.0 25.3 31.7 15.7 6.3 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 93.9% 6.0 3.1 17.3 18.4 16.3 22.4 12.2 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 94.8% 6.5 1.0 2.1 10.3 17.5 16.5 21.6 11.3 9.3 4.1 1.0