Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #264
Pace 70.6 #134
Improvement +4.8 #18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #242 D+ C D- B- C
Defense #258 D- B- C C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.15 #184 +0.2 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #132 0.73 #205 +0.5 #153
Three Pointers 38% #245 0.90 #323 -3.8 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #268 -3.0 #268
Freethrows 0.33 #110 76% #70 0.25 #82
Second Chance 33.6% #95 0.95 #314 0.32 #170
Turnovers 19.5% #339
Total Offense -2.6 #242

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #160 1.34 #353 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #331 0.81 #265 +1.7 #67
Three Pointers 45% #61 1.08 #269 -3.7 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #344 -6.1 #344
Freethrows 0.34 #288 70% #73 0.24 #259
Second Chance 30.0% #153 0.92 #37 0.28 #83
Turnovers 17.0% #146
Total Defense -2.8 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #220 1.5% #310
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #272 10.4% #339
Possession Length 17.1 #145 17.3 #169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.18 #235
Improvement +1.9 #83 +2.9 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 33.2% 47.0% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 84.3% 54.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round2.6% 3.1% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 412 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 92 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  0 - 1 -9 -10 F D A+ +1 D+ B+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 210 James Madison W 82 - 72 53% +8  1 - 1 +4 +4 F+ D B- +0 C- A C-
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Binghamton W 90 - 82 90% +14  2 - 1 -11 +3 D C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 332 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 78% -3  2 - 2 -15 -6 F B- F -9 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 170 @Columbia L 70 - 95 23% -13  2 - 3 -23 -5 B+ F F -17 F D D+
 Fri, Nov 28 173 Siena L 63 - 70 33% -3  2 - 4 -8 -8 F+ B F -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 336 Maine W 65 - 61 71% +3  3 - 4 -7 -2 A F+ F -5 C- F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 233 @American L 66 - 92 34% -8  3 - 5 -27 -8 F F A- -18 F D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 356 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 71% +1  4 - 5 -7 +0 D B F -8 F+ B C
 Sat, Dec 13 357 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 86% -5  4 - 6 -22 +3 C D+ F -26 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 68 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  4 - 7 +8 -2 F+ C+ B+ +10 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 343 @NC Central W 74 - 72 63% +2  5 - 7 -7 -4 D B F -3 C- B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 126 Winthrop W 82 - 70 33% +7  6 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +11 B+ A+ D +1 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 3 96 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  6 - 8 1 - 1 -4 -1 C C+ D- -4 C- C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 204 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  6 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -5 D- D- C -7 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 269 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 64% +10  7 - 9 2 - 2 -2 +8 B B C- -10 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 253 @Radford L 83 - 85 38% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +7 C+ A+ F -11 F A C-
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  8 - 10 3 - 3 +14 +8 C+ A+ D- +6 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 234 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 57% +6  9 - 10 4 - 3 -5 -6 C- F+ F +1 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 96 High Point L 76 - 84 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 83 - 73 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 126 @Winthrop L 73 - 83 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 204 UNC Asheville W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 307 South Carolina Upstate W 77 - 71 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 269 @Presbyterian L 70 - 72 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 @Charleston Southern L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 Radford W 83 - 80 59%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -5 -3 D+ C D- -3 D- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 12.6 12.4 4.4 0.4 32.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 11.9 9.5 1.1 0.0 23.9 4th
5th 0.5 8.0 9.3 1.0 18.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 7.9 1.2 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.5 1.2 7.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.7 0.4 1.3 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 2.4 9.2 18.4 25.2 23.2 14.1 5.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 70.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-4 14.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 23.3% 23.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 1.4% 10.2% 10.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-5 5.7% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.4
10-6 14.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 13.5
9-7 23.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.2 0.5 22.4
8-8 25.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 24.5
7-9 18.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 18.1
6-10 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.1
5-11 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-12 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.6 97.0 0.0%