Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#308
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#312
Pace71.5#130
Improvement-3.1#343

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#253
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks-3.1#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#328
Freethrows+6.0#2
Improvement+0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#335
First Shot-6.2#349
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#112
Layups/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#357
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement-3.2#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.3 15.9
.500 or above 7.8% 27.1% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 23.5% 37.2% 23.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 7.8% 14.0%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round0.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 107 @Pittsburgh L 60-78 9%     0 - 1 -11.1 -11.2 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 182 James Madison W 82-72 36%     1 - 1 +5.4 +4.3 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 356 Binghamton W 90-82 80%     2 - 1 -9.2 +3.4 -13.0
  Tue, Nov 18 345 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82-83 2OT 73%     2 - 2 -15.7 -7.3 -8.3
  Sun, Nov 23 137 @Columbia L 70-95 12%     2 - 3 -20.4 -2.9 -16.7
  Fri, Nov 28 165 Siena L 63-70 22%     2 - 4 -7.3 -6.3 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 29 336 Maine W 65-61 59%     3 - 4 -6.8 -2.5 -3.9
  Sun, Nov 30 249 @American L 66-92 27%     3 - 5 -27.9 -8.8 -18.4
  Sat, Dec 6 359 @Morgan St. W 84-80 63%     4 - 5 -7.6 -0.8 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 13 349 Delaware St. L 76-81 74%     4 - 6 -20.0 +2.6 -22.9
  Wed, Dec 17 42 @Wake Forest L 67-90 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 350 @NC Central W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Dec 31 112 Winthrop L 76-85 21%    
  Sat, Jan 3 105 @High Point L 74-89 7%    
  Wed, Jan 7 222 @UNC Asheville L 72-80 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 263 Presbyterian W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 255 @Radford L 78-84 28%    
  Wed, Jan 21 357 Gardner-Webb W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 267 Charleston Southern W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Jan 29 262 @South Carolina Upstate L 72-78 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 105 High Point L 77-86 20%    
  Wed, Feb 4 357 @Gardner-Webb W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 112 @Winthrop L 73-88 9%    
  Thu, Feb 12 222 UNC Asheville L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 262 South Carolina Upstate W 76-75 50%    
  Thu, Feb 19 263 @Presbyterian L 65-71 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 267 @Charleston Southern L 73-79 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 255 Radford L 81-82 50%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.4 4.5 0.6 0.0 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.8 4.9 0.6 0.0 20.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 6.1 7.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 7.4 9th
Total 0.3 1.6 4.6 9.2 13.7 16.0 16.9 14.2 10.5 6.9 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 73.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-4 31.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 6.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.2% 18.9% 18.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-5 1.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
10-6 3.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.3
9-7 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
8-8 10.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.3
7-9 14.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.0
6-10 16.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.7
5-11 16.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.9
4-12 13.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
3-13 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
2-14 4.6% 4.6
1-15 1.6% 1.6
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%