Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #68
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 #74
Pace 71.8 #98
Improvement -5.2 #348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #86 C+ B B- C+ C+
Defense #65 B- C A- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.20 #123 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #260 0.96 #9 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 46% #77 1.00 #209 +2.4 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.6 #110
Freethrows 0.30 #199 76% #58 0.23 #150
Second Chance 32.2% #137 1.22 #23 0.39 #49
Turnovers 14.8% #79
Total Offense +3.9 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.21 #257 +1.5 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #301 0.69 #70 +2.1 #37
Three Pointers 49% #14 0.88 #29 -0.7 #213
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #83 +2.9 #83
Freethrows 0.31 #196 74% #292 0.23 #223
Second Chance 30.4% #173 1.03 #140 0.31 #157
Turnovers 21.0% #13
Total Defense +4.5 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #138 0.5% #213
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #112 -6.1% #69
Possession Length 16.1 #61 18.2 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.14 #68
Improvement -2.2 #296 -3.0 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 7.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 6.8% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 10.7
.500 or above 55.4% 74.9% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 12.9% 25.3% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 2.2% 9.9%
First Four2.5% 4.5% 1.5%
First Round2.3% 4.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 10
Quad 25 - 57 - 15
Quad 33 - 19 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 American W 88 - 74 92% +9  1 - 0 +7 +6 D+ A+ B+ -1 C+ F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 299 Morehead St. W 81 - 65 95% +8  2 - 0 +5 -9 F B F +12 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84 - 85 OT 7% -2  2 - 1 +24 +9 D+ A+ B+ +15 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 319 Umass Lowell W 109 - 75 96% +15  3 - 1 +22 +22 B A+ A- -3 D B+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 15 Texas Tech L 83 - 84 18% -2  3 - 2 +17 +11 B A A+ +6 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 100 Memphis W 69 - 68 62% -5  4 - 2 +6 +5 D+ A+ C- +1 D B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 207 Campbell W 99 - 51 90% +26  5 - 2 +42 +19 A A+ A+ +22 A+ A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 256 Northeastern W 86 - 73 93% +7  6 - 2 +5 +3 A B+ F +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 54 Oklahoma L 68 - 86 55% -4  6 - 3 -11 -6 F+ F+ C- -4 D D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 57 West Virginia W 75 - 66 44% +6  7 - 3 +19 +20 A+ B C +0 B F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 199 Queens W 111 - 73 90% +19  8 - 3 +32 +28 A+ A- C +3 C+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 257 Longwood W 71 - 68 93% +2  9 - 3 -5 -9 F F B+ +4 A C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 12 Vanderbilt L 67 - 98 23% -19  9 - 4 -15 -2 D+ C+ F+ -12 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 31 24 @North Carolina St. L 57 - 70 16% -7  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 -9 D F C- +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 59 Virginia Tech W 81 - 78 58% +4  10 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +7 C- A+ A- +2 C- B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 40 Miami (FL) L 77 - 81 44% +1  10 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +11 A+ C- B -5 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 28 @North Carolina L 84 - 87 18% -8  10 - 7 1 - 3 +15 +16 A+ A- F+ -1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 105 @Florida St. W 69 - 68 53% -3  11 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +4 C- A- A+ +4 B+ D A+
 Tue, Jan 20 37 SMU L 79 - 91 40% -8  11 - 8 2 - 4 -1 +3 B- C- B+ -3 D C A
 Sat, Jan 24 3 @Duke L 69 - 90 6% -9  11 - 9 2 - 5 +6 +15 A C+ A+ -11 B- D D+
 Tue, Jan 27 92 @Pittsburgh L 76 - 80 OT 48% +3  11 - 10 2 - 6 +5 +4 C C D +1 A D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 24 North Carolina St. L 76 - 81 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Louisville L 77 - 83 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 111 @Georgia Tech W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 84 Stanford W 78 - 73 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 32 Clemson L 69 - 72 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 59 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 78 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 132 @Boston College W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 76 Syracuse W 78 - 74 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 22 @Virginia L 69 - 80 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 California W 76 - 73 60%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8 +4 C+ B B- +4 B- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.5 5.0 3.6 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 3.6 6.9 1.1 11.6 10th
11th 1.1 8.7 3.6 0.1 13.5 11th
12th 0.1 5.6 7.5 0.6 13.8 12th
13th 1.4 9.3 2.2 0.0 12.9 13th
14th 0.2 5.0 5.0 0.2 10.3 14th
15th 1.3 5.8 0.8 0.0 7.9 15th
16th 0.1 2.8 2.6 0.1 5.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 17th
18th 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.3 18th
Total 0.3 2.3 7.6 15.2 21.9 22.7 17.1 9.1 3.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 66.7% 66.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 66.7%
10-8 3.1% 35.9% 0.8% 35.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.0 35.3%
9-9 9.1% 16.4% 0.3% 16.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.0 7.6 16.1%
8-10 17.1% 3.3% 0.4% 2.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 16.5 2.9%
7-11 22.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.0 0.1 22.6 0.3%
6-12 21.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 21.9
5-13 15.2% 15.2
4-14 7.6% 7.6
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 0.2% 3.6% 10.6 96.3 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%