High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#161
Pace74.1#62
Improvement-5.3#361

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#65
First Shot+4.5#66
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement-2.6#346

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#208
First Shot-1.5#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#163
Layups/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#331
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-2.7#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 41.6% 34.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.1% 97.9%
Conference Champion 56.1% 57.3% 48.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round40.4% 41.5% 34.0%
Second Round4.2% 4.5% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 4
Quad 419 - 323 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 151 Furman W 97-71 63%     1 - 0 +26.6 +19.5 +6.0
  Tue, Nov 11 305 Jacksonville W 85-64 91%     2 - 0 +10.1 +8.9 +1.5
  Fri, Nov 14 119 @UAB L 74-91 42%     2 - 1 -10.8 -4.4 -4.7
  Mon, Nov 17 340 Canisius W 93-50 95%     3 - 1 +28.8 +20.5 +10.6
  Thu, Nov 20 189 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 71%     4 - 1 +8.2 +11.9 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 22 191 Incarnate Word W 91-80 72%     5 - 1 +9.1 +20.4 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 29 296 Western Carolina W 93-73 90%     6 - 1 +9.6 +10.6 -2.1
  Wed, Dec 3 129 Southern Illinois L 84-86 69%     6 - 2 -3.0 +6.6 -9.5
  Fri, Dec 5 352 NJIT W 89-72 96%     7 - 2 +1.1 +7.2 -7.0
  Sun, Dec 14 231 Appalachian St. L 78-86 OT 78%     7 - 3 -12.0 -1.2 -10.3
  Fri, Dec 19 239 La Salle W 81-70 86%    
  Mon, Dec 22 297 Bryant W 83-69 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 222 @UNC Asheville W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 308 Longwood W 89-74 93%    
  Wed, Jan 7 357 Gardner-Webb W 94-73 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 267 @Charleston Southern W 83-76 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 112 @Winthrop L 84-86 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 262 South Carolina Upstate W 86-73 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @Radford W 88-82 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 263 Presbyterian W 78-65 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 308 @Longwood W 86-77 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 267 Charleston Southern W 86-73 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 255 Radford W 91-79 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 262 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-76 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 357 Gardner-Webb W 94-73 97%    
  Thu, Feb 19 222 UNC Asheville W 85-74 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 112 Winthrop W 87-83 62%    
  Thu, Feb 26 263 @Presbyterian W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 6.7 14.1 17.5 11.8 4.0 56.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 8.1 10.0 6.3 1.7 29.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.7 12.6 17.4 20.4 19.2 11.8 4.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
15-1 100.0% 11.8    11.4 0.4
14-2 91.2% 17.5    14.3 3.2 0.0
13-3 69.0% 14.1    9.1 4.8 0.2
12-4 38.7% 6.7    3.0 3.2 0.5 0.0
11-5 13.9% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
10-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 56.1% 56.1 42.2 12.5 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.0% 62.9% 62.8% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.5 0.2%
15-1 11.8% 55.1% 55.1% 12.5 0.3 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.3
14-2 19.2% 49.9% 49.9% 13.1 0.0 1.8 5.1 2.5 0.1 0.0 9.6
13-3 20.4% 43.2% 43.2% 13.5 0.6 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.6
12-4 17.4% 36.2% 36.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.1 0.0 11.1
11-5 12.6% 29.7% 29.7% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.1 8.9
10-6 7.7% 23.9% 23.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 5.9
9-7 4.0% 19.9% 19.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.2
8-8 1.9% 18.0% 18.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
7-9 0.7% 12.4% 12.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6
6-10 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 40.5% 40.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.6 14.2 12.9 4.6 0.7 59.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 11.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.9 52.0 41.3 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 0.5% 11.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%