Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Pace70.9#150
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#140
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#123
Layup/Dunks+1.7#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#100
Freethrows-3.6#344
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#140
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#96
Layups/Dunks-3.4#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#75
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+0.3#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 21.1% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 98.7% 99.7% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 89.6% 82.9%
Conference Champion 19.5% 24.6% 18.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.6% 2.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.5% 21.1% 16.6%
Second Round1.4% 2.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 20.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 337 @New Haven W 71-53 81%     1 - 0 +10.2 +1.4 +10.1
  Mon, Nov 10 6 @Connecticut L 62-89 3%     1 - 1 -3.4 +4.2 -9.0
  Thu, Nov 13 302 Umass Lowell W 86-72 87%     2 - 1 +3.2 +8.7 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 18 288 Boston University W 54-49 86%     3 - 1 -5.0 -17.9 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 21 309 @Lehigh W 82-67 75%     4 - 1 +9.7 +8.7 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 308 Longwood W 95-70 88%     5 - 1 +13.7 +12.4 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 26 294 @Fairfield W 106-77 72%     6 - 1 +24.6 +29.5 -5.3
  Wed, Dec 3 114 Hofstra W 72-70 55%     7 - 1 +2.3 +3.9 -1.5
  Sat, Dec 6 328 Albany W 93-65 91%     8 - 1 +14.9 +14.5 +0.9
  Tue, Dec 9 197 @Stony Brook L 73-77 OT 54%     8 - 2 -3.4 -8.0 +5.0
  Sun, Dec 21 81 @California L 70-79 21%    
  Sun, Dec 28 344 @North Florida W 86-76 83%    
  Mon, Jan 5 164 @Cornell L 84-85 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 Harvard W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 218 @Brown W 70-68 58%    
  Mon, Jan 19 79 @Yale L 74-83 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 @Dartmouth W 78-75 62%    
  Fri, Jan 30 256 Penn W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 261 Princeton W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 164 Cornell W 87-82 67%    
  Fri, Feb 13 256 @Penn W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 261 @Princeton W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 245 Dartmouth W 81-72 80%    
  Fri, Feb 27 218 Brown W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 79 Yale L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 200 @Harvard W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.3 5.5 2.5 0.5 19.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 10.5 11.5 5.4 0.9 32.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 8.8 6.2 1.2 0.0 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 8th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.8 7.9 12.7 16.0 18.0 16.4 11.8 6.5 2.5 0.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
13-1 100.0% 2.5    2.3 0.2
12-2 85.6% 5.5    3.9 1.6 0.0
11-3 53.9% 6.3    3.3 2.8 0.2
10-4 22.1% 3.6    1.1 1.9 0.6 0.0
9-5 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 11.2 6.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.5% 52.6% 52.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-1 2.5% 41.3% 41.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.2%
12-2 6.5% 35.2% 35.2% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.2
11-3 11.8% 29.6% 29.6% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 8.3
10-4 16.4% 23.3% 23.3% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 12.6
9-5 18.0% 20.3% 20.3% 13.5 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.3 14.3
8-6 16.0% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.8
7-7 12.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.9
6-8 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 7.9
5-9 4.8% 4.8
4-10 2.0% 2.0
3-11 0.7% 0.7
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.3 4.9 1.2 0.0 82.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 4.5 4.5 86.4 4.5