Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.2 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -18.5 #357
Pace 74.4 #46
Improvement -0.9 #231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #358 D- D- F+ D+ C+
Defense #361 F+ D- D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.01 #335 -2.1 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.57 #356 -2.7 #307
Three Pointers 42% #157 0.92 #295 -1.4 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.2 #343
Freethrows 0.27 #276 71% #233 0.19 #281
Second Chance 24.2% #334 0.97 #280 0.23 #340
Turnovers 20.2% #350
Total Offense -9.3 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.35 #359 -5.1 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #203 0.81 #273 -0.2 #197
Three Pointers 40% #212 1.14 #332 -2.0 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #357 -7.3 #358
Freethrows 0.27 #87 73% #229 0.20 #110
Second Chance 35.7% #340 1.15 #306 0.41 #345
Turnovers 14.1% #314
Total Defense -8.9 #361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #127 0.5% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.0% #352 13.6% #360
Possession Length 16.8 #117 16.6 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #152 0.20 #279
Improvement -1.2 #244 +0.2 #182

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.8% 86.9% 96.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 42 - 132 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 72 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0 - 1 -16 -8 F+ D- C- -7 F C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 32 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0 - 2 -21 -3 C D+ F -18 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 193 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  0 - 3 -10 +2 C D- D -11 F F B+
 Tue, Nov 18 95 @DePaul L 62 - 93 2% -16  0 - 4 -22 -12 F+ C- F -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 117 @Richmond L 67 - 102 2% -28  0 - 5 -29 -8 B- F F -19 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 178 Navy L 51 - 84 7% -16  0 - 6 -34 -17 F+ F+ F -19 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 265 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 7 -14 -6 C- C+ F -8 C C D
 Sat, Nov 29 121 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  0 - 8 -20 -7 C- F F -13 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 199 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0 - 9 -33 -6 F A+ C -25 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 245 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 16% -3  0 - 10 -12 +0 C+ D- D+ -11 D- C F+
 Mon, Dec 15 211 Wofford L 57 - 83 13% -11  0 - 11 -32 -20 F F F -12 C- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 20 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  0 - 12 -22 -11 D D C -11 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 234 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 15% +1  0 - 13 0 - 1 -17 -0 F+ B D -16 D- F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 126 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  0 - 14 0 - 2 -6 +8 A- F A+ -15 F A D
 Wed, Jan 7 96 @High Point L 49 - 104 2% -38  0 - 15 0 - 3 -46 -29 F F+ F -11 C F D
 Wed, Jan 14 253 Radford L 80 - 89 17% -5  0 - 16 0 - 4 -17 +0 D+ D+ B+ -17 D+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 19% -20  0 - 17 0 - 5 -46 -22 F D- F -24 F D F
 Wed, Jan 21 257 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  0 - 18 0 - 6 -37 -18 F D F -19 F F D
 Fri, Jan 23 307 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 26% -3  1 - 18 1 - 6 -10 -6 D- C- D- -4 C+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 29 204 @UNC Asheville L 66 - 84 4%
 Sat, Jan 31 234 @Charleston Southern L 71 - 88 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 257 Longwood L 73 - 83 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 269 @Presbyterian L 65 - 80 8%
 Thu, Feb 12 126 Winthrop L 71 - 88 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 96 @High Point L 69 - 96 1%
 Thu, Feb 19 253 @Radford L 75 - 91 7%
 Thu, Feb 26 204 UNC Asheville L 69 - 81 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 69 - 82 12%
Totals 2 - 26 2 - 14 -18 -9 D- D- F+ -9 F+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 3.3 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 48.2 31.8 8.0 0.9 0.0 88.9 9th
Total 48.2 35.0 12.7 3.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.6% 0.6
4-12 3.4% 3.4
3-13 12.7% 12.7
2-14 35.0% 35.0
1-15 48.2% 48.2
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 41.1%