South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #307
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #315
Pace 69.8 #153
Improvement -5.7 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 D+ D+ C- C- C
Defense #243 C- C- D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.02 #323 -1.3 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #110 0.73 #215 +0.7 #148
Three Pointers 35% #307 1.01 #201 -3.1 #292
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #286 -3.8 #291
Freethrows 0.30 #207 70% #257 0.21 #238
Second Chance 27.6% #264 0.97 #281 0.27 #282
Turnovers 17.3% #243
Total Offense -6.4 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #34 1.15 #167 -3.2 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.74 #136 +0.8 #134
Three Pointers 35% #329 1.09 #278 +1.7 #118
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #219 -0.8 #202
Freethrows 0.32 #232 72% #150 0.23 #221
Second Chance 31.2% #208 1.09 #245 0.34 #237
Turnovers 14.3% #306
Total Defense -2.2 #243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #224 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #289 1.6% #209
Possession Length 17.1 #143 15.8 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.17 #167
Improvement -3.5 #343 -2.2 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.3% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 5.0% 15.9%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 48 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 140 @California Baptist L 75 - 87 12% -8  0 - 1 -8 +5 B- C+ F -12 F A- F
 Wed, Nov 5 149 @Fresno St. W 67 - 66 13% -4  1 - 1 +5 -2 B B- F +6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 121 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 73 10% -8  1 - 2 -7 -2 D C+ F -8 C- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 338 Tennessee Tech L 84 - 88 71% -3  1 - 3 -18 -3 C F B+ -15 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 328 @West Georgia L 64 - 72 45% -4  1 - 4 -15 -14 F F+ C -1 C F A
 Tue, Nov 25 343 NC Central W 82 - 67 73% +10  2 - 4 +0 +3 A- D+ F -3 A- D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 13 @Nebraska L 63 - 72 1% -2  2 - 5 +13 -0 C C- A+ +13 A+ C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 236 Coastal Carolina W 85 - 78 OT 45% -7  3 - 5 -0 -1 C D- D+ -0 C A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 274 Western Carolina W 78 - 67 53% +4  4 - 5 +2 -3 D- C- F+ +5 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 28 @North Carolina L 62 - 80 2% -8  4 - 6 -0 +2 C B- B+ -4 C B- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 72 63% +6  5 - 6 -6 +3 C+ C- D+ -9 F D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 221 @Youngstown St. L 65 - 74 23% -8  5 - 7 -10 -8 F C- D+ -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 253 Radford L 69 - 76 49% -4  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -13 F C- D+ -2 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 3 269 @Presbyterian L 77 - 86 30% -4  5 - 9 0 - 2 -12 +3 B D F+ -15 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 126 Winthrop L 50 - 71 23% -15  5 - 10 0 - 3 -22 -22 F D F+ -1 D+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 234 @Charleston Southern W 86 - 81 OT 24% -1  6 - 10 1 - 3 +4 +3 D- B+ B- -0 D- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 96 @High Point L 69 - 89 7% -7  6 - 11 1 - 4 -11 -1 F B- D- -12 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 204 UNC Asheville L 69 - 83 39% -6  6 - 12 1 - 5 -20 -3 C+ F A- -18 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 23 363 @Gardner-Webb L 65 - 67 74% +3  6 - 13 1 - 6 -17 -12 F F D -6 C D- D
 Thu, Jan 29 257 Longwood L 73 - 74 49%
 Wed, Feb 4 204 @UNC Asheville L 66 - 75 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 234 Charleston Southern L 75 - 76 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 96 High Point L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @Longwood L 71 - 77 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 126 @Winthrop L 68 - 82 10%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 Presbyterian W 69 - 68 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 253 @Radford L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 82 - 69 88%
Totals 9 - 19 4 - 12 -9 -6 D+ D+ C- -2 C- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.4 4.4 2.1 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 7.9 6.8 0.3 17.1 7th
8th 5.9 19.1 25.3 14.9 1.9 0.0 67.1 8th
9th 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.2 4.0 9th
Total 0.9 7.8 20.2 27.5 23.1 13.4 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-8 1.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
7-9 5.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.1
6-10 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-11 23.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 23.0
4-12 27.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 27.4
3-13 20.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.2
2-14 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%