UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #204
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #247
Pace 66.5 #244
Improvement +1.9 #96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #216 C- C D+ C+ F
Defense #205 C- C+ C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #358 1.13 #206 -6.1 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% #2 0.83 #80 +8.4 #1
Three Pointers 33% #335 1.06 #122 -3.7 #307
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #224 -1.5 #224
Freethrows 0.34 #66 69% #288 0.24 #121
Second Chance 29.1% #223 1.07 #138 0.31 #188
Turnovers 18.0% #282
Total Offense -1.9 #216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.17 #186 -3.4 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #214 0.88 #333 -0.7 #232
Three Pointers 37% #293 0.99 #145 +2.7 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #223 -1.4 #223
Freethrows 0.32 #246 68% #25 0.22 #177
Second Chance 31.2% #207 0.94 #52 0.29 #113
Turnovers 15.5% #234
Total Defense -0.9 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.0% #364 1.1% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #125 1.5% #207
Possession Length 18.7 #312 17.4 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #279 0.20 #260
Improvement +0.8 #137 +1.1 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 6.7% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 12.9% 13.4% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 80.6% 41.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four2.8% 2.7% 4.6%
First Round5.7% 5.7% 4.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 411 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 99 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 15% -4  0 - 1 -9 -9 F A+ F -1 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 245 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 46% +1  0 - 2 -5 +3 C+ B F+ -7 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 169 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 53% +4  1 - 2 +1 +1 B+ B- F +1 A C C
 Wed, Nov 19 274 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 52% -1  1 - 3 -10 +3 B+ F D -14 C D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 229 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 65% +3  1 - 4 -9 -8 A+ D- F -1 B- D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 200 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 61% +8  2 - 4 +6 -1 D+ A F +9 B B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 305 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 71% +0  3 - 4 -3 +8 C+ B C -11 F C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 24 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  3 - 5 +7 +1 D+ C C+ +6 A- D- A
 Wed, Dec 10 91 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 29% -6  3 - 6 -0 +4 B C- C+ -4 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 128 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 43% -13  3 - 7 -22 -12 F+ C- F -11 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 118 @UAB L 47 - 72 21% -13  3 - 8 -19 -19 F F F+ -2 D+ A F+
 Wed, Dec 31 96 High Point L 69 - 87 30% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -15 -3 F+ C+ A+ -14 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 3 234 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 44% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -4 +8 F A+ C+ -12 F F A
 Wed, Jan 7 257 Longwood W 72 - 61 71% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +3 +2 C D+ C+ +2 C+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 10 253 @Radford W 91 - 72 48% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +17 +11 A+ F C +5 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 269 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 51% -6  5 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +1 F C C -5 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 126 Winthrop L 67 - 69 43% -6  5 - 12 2 - 4 -3 -7 F D- B +4 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 61% +6  6 - 12 3 - 4 +8 +14 B+ D C+ -4 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 66 96%
 Sat, Jan 31 126 @Winthrop L 71 - 79 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 307 South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 66 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @Longwood L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 269 Presbyterian W 72 - 66 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 96 @High Point L 72 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 Radford W 80 - 75 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 81 - 69 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 234 Charleston Southern W 77 - 73 66%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -3 -2 C- C D+ -1 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.3 15.9 16.4 3.9 0.1 39.6 3rd
4th 1.2 12.4 10.9 1.5 0.0 26.1 4th
5th 0.2 6.1 9.0 1.2 0.0 16.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 6.1 1.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.1 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.2 14.5 25.9 28.1 18.7 5.6 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 22.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.6% 18.9% 18.9% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-5 5.6% 11.5% 11.5% 14.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 5.0
10-6 18.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 17.0
9-7 28.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.2 1.8 26.1
8-8 25.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.4 24.5
7-9 14.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.6 13.9
6-10 5.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-11 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.6 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.4 62.5 37.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%