American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #208
Pace 68.7 #182
Improvement -1.8 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 C D C C- B-
Defense #200 C- C C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.12 #224 -1.4 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.75 #181 -2.5 #298
Three Pointers 48% #42 1.03 #175 +4.0 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.1 #170
Freethrows 0.26 #299 77% #37 0.20 #230
Second Chance 24.2% #336 1.00 #233 0.24 #331
Turnovers 16.6% #192
Total Offense -3.2 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.25 #291 -4.6 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.73 #125 -0.1 #190
Three Pointers 36% #322 1.02 #190 +2.7 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #248
Freethrows 0.38 #345 73% #204 0.27 #342
Second Chance 31.7% #236 0.99 #100 0.31 #169
Turnovers 17.6% #97
Total Defense -0.9 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #84 0.4% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #193 3.3% #245
Possession Length 18.1 #249 16.4 #43
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #181 0.18 #201
Improvement -2.5 #311 +0.6 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.0% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 94.6% 97.1% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.5% 94.4%
Conference Champion 12.5% 14.5% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.1% 2.9% 3.8%
First Round16.6% 17.6% 13.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 417 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 8% -9  0 - 1 -3 +2 C C+ D- -3 B D- C
 Sun, Nov 9 192 Penn W 84 - 78 54% +3  1 - 1 +1 +0 B D D+ +0 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 65 @George Washington L 67 - 107 8% -20  1 - 2 -28 -8 C- C- D -18 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 118 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 18% -1  1 - 3 -3 +0 D- D- A+ -3 C+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 336 Maine W 74 - 61 83% +12  2 - 3 -1 +3 B F A+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 172 Siena L 55 - 59 50% -1  2 - 4 -8 -19 F C- F +11 B A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 261 Longwood W 92 - 66 67% +8  3 - 4 +17 +13 B- B- C+ +4 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 201 Drexel W 75 - 73 55% -1  4 - 4 -3 +6 B F A+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 82% +10  5 - 4 +4 +10 A+ F+ B -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 6% -12  5 - 5 -9 +14 B D+ A -23 F+ F C
 Mon, Dec 22 22 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -18  5 - 6 -24 -9 D- C- C -20 F F+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 318 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 79% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +8 A+ F+ C+ -5 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 286 @Boston University W 64 - 62 50% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F D+ +0 A+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 214 @Colgate L 62 - 64 35% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A- F F+ -1 B D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 323 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 80% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C C- -16 F D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 175 Navy W 65 - 51 51% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +1 C- F A+ +11 A+ A B+
 Sun, Jan 18 334 @Army W 78 - 67 65% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +8 C+ A+ F -4 D C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 214 Colgate W 70 - 66 58% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 C- A+ F +2 B B B+
 Sat, Jan 24 323 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 61% +8  11 - 8 6 - 2 +2 +6 C D+ B+ -3 F+ B A-
 Wed, Jan 28 318 @Loyola Maryland L 68 - 77 59% -8  11 - 9 6 - 3 -15 -13 D F D+ -2 B+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 315 Lafayette W 76 - 68 78%
 Wed, Feb 4 322 Bucknell W 75 - 66 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @Navy L 66 - 72 29%
 Wed, Feb 11 304 @Lehigh W 71 - 70 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 334 Army W 79 - 69 82%
 Wed, Feb 18 322 @Bucknell W 72 - 69 60%
 Sun, Feb 22 315 @Lafayette W 73 - 71 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 304 Lehigh W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 286 Boston University W 74 - 68 71%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -4 -3 C D C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.6 5.6 2.3 12.5 1st
2nd 0.6 4.2 12.3 14.9 5.1 0.2 37.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 7.0 15.0 12.9 3.6 0.3 39.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.6 1.3 0.3 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.8 11.4 20.3 26.3 22.1 11.0 2.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 91.4% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 50.5% 5.6    2.1 3.1 0.5
13-5 16.5% 3.6    0.8 2.0 0.8
12-6 3.8% 1.0    0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 4.5 6.1 1.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.5% 33.1% 33.1% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.7
14-4 11.0% 25.3% 25.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.3 8.2
13-5 22.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.4 0.2 2.8 2.1 17.0
12-6 26.3% 16.3% 16.3% 15.6 0.1 1.6 2.7 22.0
11-7 20.3% 16.6% 16.6% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.7 16.9
10-8 11.4% 12.0% 12.0% 15.9 0.1 1.3 10.0
9-9 4.8% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.4
8-10 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 15.4 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 14.1 21.2 49.1 29.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%