IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Harvard
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-1.4	#178
Expected Predictive Rating	-3.1	#218

Pace	61.7	#347
Improvement	+3.2	#53

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#185	B-	D+	D+	D	C+
Defense	#193	C-	C	C	B-	D+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#114	1.15	#183	+1.3	#134
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#226	0.77	#154	-0.9	#230
Three Pointers	41%	#183	1.13	#48	+2.2	#107
1st FG Attempt			1.07	#107	+2.6	#105
Freethrows	0.22	#360	81%	#3	0.18	#321
Second Chance	27.6%	#263	0.98	#265	0.27	#276
Turnovers					18.0%	#280
Total Offense					-0.7	#185

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#60	1.16	#183	-2.7	#274
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#253	0.77	#208	+0.8	#126
Three Pointers	39%	#242	1.03	#195	+0.9	#145
1st FG Attempt			1.04	#209	-1.1	#214
Freethrows	0.27	#68	73%	#216	0.20	#86
Second Chance	30.9%	#196	1.01	#126	0.31	#162
Turnovers					16.4%	#180
Total Defense					-0.8	#193

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.0%	#118	1.3%	#291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	4.0%	#111	0.7%	#198
Possession Length	18.2	#264	18.7	#339
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#272	0.15	#124
Improvement	+2.4	#62	+0.9	#132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.3%	7.9%	4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.4	14.9

.500 or above	39.1%	53.9%	20.8%
.500 or above in Conference	61.8%	77.8%	42.0%
Conference Champion	3.7%	5.8%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	9.1%	2.0%	17.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	6.3%	7.9%	4.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 6	5 - 10
Quad 4	8 - 5	13 - 14

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sun, Nov 9	314 New Hampshire	W	86 - 75	85%	-6	1 - 0		-1	+9	A+	F	B-	-11	F	C+	B-
Tue, Nov 11	252 Northeastern	L	60 - 77	74%	-9	1 - 1		-25	-16	F	F+	F	-10	C	D+	F
Sat, Nov 15	334 @Army	W	75 - 52	74%	+9	2 - 1		+15	+4	B+	F	F	+14	B+	C	A+
Sun, Nov 16	159 @Marist	W	56 - 54	33%	+1	3 - 1		+5	-4	C-	D+	F	+9	B-	A	A+
Wed, Nov 19	116 @Penn St.	L	80 - 84	24%	-2	3 - 2		+2	+15	A	A+	D+	-14	D	D+	D-
Sat, Nov 22	286 Boston University	L	74 - 75	71%	+2	3 - 3		-8	+2	B	C-	F	-10	F	C-	A
Wed, Nov 26	131 @Boston College	L	60 - 73	28%	-9	3 - 4		-8	-2	C	D+	C-	-8	F	A+	F+
Sat, Nov 29	348 Bryant	W	56 - 53	90%	+2	4 - 4		-12	-11	D+	F	F+	-1	A-	D-	D
Wed, Dec 3	170 @Massachusetts	L	71 - 78	36%	-10	4 - 5		-5	-3	D+	D+	C-	-1	F	A+	B
Sat, Dec 6	160 @Furman	L	69 - 79	33%	-7	4 - 6		-7	-1	B-	F	C+	-7	F	F+	A-
Sat, Dec 20	323 Holy Cross	W	81 - 53	86%	+16	5 - 6		+15	+13	B+	A+	F+	+6	A+	D+	F
Tue, Dec 23	19 @St. John's	L	59 - 85	3%	-9	5 - 7		-5	-2	B	F	D	-4	D+	C+	A-
Sun, Dec 28	214 @Colgate	W	78 - 69	45%	+2	6 - 7		+9	+5	A+	F+	C	+4	B	C	B-
Mon, Jan 5	235 Dartmouth	L	68 - 76	71%	-3	6 - 8	0 - 1	-15	-2	F	A	D+	-14	F+	F+	D+
Sat, Jan 10	169 @Columbia	W	79 - 54	36%	+13	7 - 8	1 - 1	+27	+19	A+	C	D	+12	A+	B	B
Sat, Jan 17	213 Princeton	W	87 - 80 OT	68%	-7	8 - 8	2 - 1	+1	+15	B+	D-	A+	-14	B-	F	F
Mon, Jan 19	192 Penn	W	64 - 63	64%	+1	9 - 8	3 - 1	-4	-4	C	D-	F+	+0	C+	A+	C+
Sat, Jan 24	174 Cornell	L	79 - 86	61%	+2	9 - 9	3 - 2	-11	+3	D	B+	C	-15	C-	D	C-
Fri, Jan 30	265 @Brown	W	65 - 64	55%
Sat, Jan 31	71 @Yale	L	66 - 78	12%
Sat, Feb 7	235 @Dartmouth	L	72 - 73	49%
Fri, Feb 13	265 Brown	W	68 - 61	75%
Sat, Feb 14	71 Yale	L	69 - 75	27%
Sat, Feb 21	174 @Cornell	L	80 - 83	39%
Fri, Feb 27	213 @Princeton	L	66 - 67	44%
Sat, Feb 28	192 @Penn	L	71 - 73	41%
Sat, Mar 7	169 Columbia	W	72 - 70	58%
Totals						13 - 14	7 - 7	-1	-1	B-	D+	D+	-1	C-	C	C

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0	Total
1st									0.1	0.9	1.6	0.9	0.2			3.7	1st
2nd								1.4	9.4	9.7	3.0	0.2				23.7	2nd
3rd							0.4	9.6	9.4	1.1						20.6	3rd
4th						0.0	4.9	10.4	1.3							16.6	4th
5th						1.1	10.1	2.4	0.0							13.6	5th
6th					0.2	5.7	4.7	0.0								10.7	6th
7th				0.0	2.6	5.3	0.3									8.1	7th
8th				0.9	1.9	0.3										3.0	8th

Total				0.9	4.7	12.4	20.3	23.9	20.2	11.7	4.7	1.1	0.2				Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2	100.0%	0.2	0.2
11-3	84.4%	0.9	0.5	0.4
10-4	34.8%	1.6	0.5	0.9	0.2
9-5	7.5%	0.9	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1
8-6	0.4%	0.1				0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	3.7%	3.7	1.3	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2	0.2%	51.3%	51.3%		12.4												0.1	0.0				0.1
11-3	1.1%	19.3%	19.3%		13.3													0.1	0.1			0.9
10-4	4.7%	19.2%	19.2%		13.7												0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2		3.8
9-5	11.7%	14.3%	14.3%		14.3													0.2	1.0	0.5	0.0	10.0
8-6	20.2%	10.5%	10.5%		14.9													0.0	0.3	1.6	0.2	18.1
7-7	23.9%	5.3%	5.3%		15.4															0.8	0.5	22.7
6-8	20.3%																					20.3
5-9	12.4%																					12.4
4-10	4.7%																					4.7
3-11	0.9%																					0.9
2-12
1-13
0-14

Total	100%	6.3%	6.3%	0.0%	14.6																	93.7	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	12.4												60.0	40.0
Lose Out	0.9%