Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#76
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#70
Pace71.2#137
Improvement+3.4#20

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#91
First Shot+3.8#77
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#205
Layup/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#17
Freethrows-2.0#297
Improvement+3.0#18

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#64
First Shot+0.3#159
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#6
Layups/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#26
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement+0.3#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 19.6% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.6% 18.0% 8.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 64.2% 75.0% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 36.0% 46.3% 23.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 5.9% 16.5%
First Four5.1% 6.4% 3.5%
First Round12.1% 16.0% 7.1%
Second Round4.5% 6.2% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 25 - 47 - 14
Quad 35 - 212 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 156 Marist W 66-62 84%     1 - 0 +1.2 -0.6 +1.9
  Thu, Nov 6 307 Le Moyne W 74-69 95%     2 - 0 -6.3 -6.4 +0.2
  Mon, Nov 10 74 Santa Clara L 68-87 61%     2 - 1 -14.2 -5.3 -8.5
  Fri, Nov 14 20 @Iowa L 62-81 15%     2 - 2 -0.3 -2.3 +2.0
  Tue, Nov 18 215 Old Dominion W 99-69 90%     3 - 2 +23.6 +16.7 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 21 19 Georgia L 77-78 21%     3 - 3 +15.0 +8.2 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 23 64 West Virginia W 78-68 46%     4 - 3 +18.6 +13.1 +5.9
  Fri, Nov 28 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 90%     5 - 3 +14.7 +9.3 +4.1
  Mon, Dec 1 363 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +3.5 +6.6 -5.3
  Fri, Dec 5 78 Cincinnati W 79-74 62%     7 - 3 +9.5 +9.9 -0.6
  Fri, Dec 12 251 Missouri St. W 75-57 92%     8 - 3 +9.9 +6.3 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 17 59 Creighton W 74-73 56%    
  Sat, Dec 20 101 @Georgetown L 75-76 49%    
  Wed, Dec 31 6 Connecticut L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 113 @DePaul W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 88 @Marquette L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 69 Providence W 83-80 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 54 Butler W 79-78 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 59 @Creighton L 71-76 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 16 St. John's L 74-81 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 56 @Seton Hall L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 113 DePaul W 76-69 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 6 @Connecticut L 63-79 7%    
  Mon, Feb 9 16 @St. John's L 71-84 13%    
  Sat, Feb 14 88 Marquette W 78-73 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 36 Villanova L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 54 @Butler L 76-81 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 69 @Providence L 80-83 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 101 Georgetown W 78-72 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 56 Seton Hall W 70-69 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 36 @Villanova L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 5.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 6.8 10.1 12.7 13.6 13.8 12.1 9.3 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 75.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 37.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 13.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 97.9% 13.8% 84.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
15-5 1.1% 94.3% 8.9% 85.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.8%
14-6 2.3% 85.0% 6.7% 78.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 84.0%
13-7 4.2% 73.6% 4.9% 68.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.1 72.2%
12-8 6.5% 50.5% 3.7% 46.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 3.2 48.6%
11-9 9.3% 30.3% 2.6% 27.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 28.5%
10-10 12.1% 13.9% 1.8% 12.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 10.4 12.3%
9-11 13.8% 3.3% 0.9% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 13.3 2.5%
8-12 13.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 11.4 0.1 0.0 13.5 0.1%
7-13 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
5-15 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.1
3-17 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 1.5% 13.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.4 4.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 13.6%