Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +7.3 #77
Pace 75.0 #41
Improvement +1.4 #125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #88 B- D+ A D- D+
Defense #83 C B+ C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.29 #59 -2.4 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #128 0.81 #108 +1.5 #97
Three Pointers 46% #79 1.11 #61 +4.7 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #71 +3.8 #71
Freethrows 0.24 #342 72% #207 0.17 #337
Second Chance 27.4% #268 0.99 #251 0.27 #274
Turnovers 12.0% #3
Total Offense +3.7 #88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.13 #142 -0.9 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #64 0.78 #216 -1.7 #312
Three Pointers 34% #340 1.02 #184 +3.3 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.7 #157
Freethrows 0.28 #101 68% #29 0.19 #68
Second Chance 26.2% #45 0.92 #40 0.24 #25
Turnovers 17.4% #113
Total Defense +3.2 #83

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #294 -0.6% #115
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #49 -0.7% #172
Possession Length 15.3 #27 17.7 #245
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #17 0.14 #78
Improvement +2.3 #69 -0.9 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.4
.500 or above 32.8% 41.8% 15.7%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 5.4% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.2% 15.6% 37.5%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 25 - 66 - 16
Quad 34 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 Marist W 66 - 62 82% -1  1 - 0 +1 -0 +2
 Thu, Nov 6 275 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 93% +4  2 - 0 -4 -3 B F D+ -2 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 50 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 46% -15  2 - 1 -11 -3 F B- B+ -7 C D C
 Fri, Nov 14 23 @Iowa L 62 - 81 13% -10  2 - 2 +0 -1 D- C A +1 D A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 222 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 89% +20  3 - 2 +23 +18 A- A+ B+ +4 B C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 29 Georgia L 77 - 78 23% -4  3 - 3 +14 +7 C C A+ +7 A- B+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 57 West Virginia W 78 - 68 38% +3  4 - 3 +20 +14 A+ D- B +6 A- A- C+
 Fri, Nov 28 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 86% +12  5 - 3 +16 +11 B- F+ A+ +4 B A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 1 354 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  6 - 3 +5 +6 D+ D+ A+ -3 C- C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 52 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 48% +4  7 - 3 +12 +11 A- F A+ +1 A+ D- D-
 Fri, Dec 12 183 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 86% +7  8 - 3 +13 +8 B D- A+ +7 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 55 Creighton L 57 - 98 49% -21  8 - 4 0 - 1 -34 -17 D- F F+ -14 F A- B
 Sat, Dec 20 89 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 40% -2  9 - 4 1 - 1 +12 +6 B+ D D +6 C+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 10 Connecticut L 67 - 90 17% -18  9 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +1 B F+ A- -7 D- B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 95 @DePaul L 77 - 86 43% -3  9 - 6 1 - 3 -0 +12 B+ C A+ -13 D- C C-
 Wed, Jan 7 93 @Marquette L 65 - 66 43% -5  9 - 7 1 - 4 +8 -4 C F D- +11 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 66 Providence W 97 - 84 55% +11  10 - 7 2 - 4 +18 +10 B+ D- A+ +7 A- A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 60 Butler W 89 - 75 53% +11  11 - 7 3 - 4 +20 +14 B+ B+ A- +6 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 21 55 @Creighton L 93 - 94 28% -1  11 - 8 3 - 5 +12 +21 A+ C B+ -9 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 18 St. John's L 83 - 88 23% +3  11 - 9 3 - 6 +9 +10 A+ F A+ +0 C A- C
 Wed, Jan 28 53 @Seton Hall L 68 - 86 27% +2  11 - 10 3 - 7 -5 +4 B+ B F+ -8 C B- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 95 DePaul W 77 - 73 66%
 Tue, Feb 3 10 @Connecticut L 66 - 82 6%
 Mon, Feb 9 18 @St. John's L 74 - 88 9%
 Sat, Feb 14 93 Marquette W 81 - 77 66%
 Tue, Feb 17 36 Villanova L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 60 @Butler L 79 - 84 32%
 Tue, Feb 24 66 @Providence L 85 - 90 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 89 Georgetown W 78 - 75 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 53 Seton Hall L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 @Villanova L 68 - 78 18%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7 +4 B- D+ A +3 C B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.6 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.7 5.9 4.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 7.1 9.1 1.1 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.1 4.9 11.5 2.4 0.1 19.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 11.4 4.5 0.2 18.3 9th
10th 1.1 7.5 6.6 0.5 15.7 10th
11th 0.9 3.9 4.6 0.7 10.1 11th
Total 0.9 5.0 14.3 24.1 24.4 18.3 9.2 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.6% 41.2% 1.8% 39.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 40.2%
10-10 3.1% 22.2% 2.7% 19.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.4 20.0%
9-11 9.2% 3.1% 1.2% 1.9% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.9 1.9%
8-12 18.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.2 0.2%
7-13 24.4% 0.4% 0.4% 11.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 24.3
6-14 24.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0
5-15 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 14.3
4-16 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 5.0
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 10.9 98.4 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%