Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #190
Pace 63.0 #327
Improvement +0.4 #164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 C D C- D- C+
Defense #248 C- C+ C- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 0.98 #347 -4.8 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #257 0.85 #55 -0.6 #215
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.10 #72 +5.3 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 -0.2 #179
Freethrows 0.24 #335 70% #266 0.17 #340
Second Chance 28.7% #236 0.89 #340 0.26 #305
Turnovers 17.2% #238
Total Offense -1.9 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.19 #227 -0.6 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.66 #35 +1.6 #72
Three Pointers 43% #125 1.11 #295 -2.9 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #241 -1.8 #240
Freethrows 0.30 #195 71% #124 0.22 #180
Second Chance 31.6% #228 0.95 #55 0.30 #124
Turnovers 15.1% #263
Total Defense -2.4 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #155 0.4% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.8% #186 3.2% #240
Possession Length 18.0 #243 17.0 #118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.18 #206
Improvement +1.1 #130 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.1% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 44.9% 64.8% 34.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 62.3% 32.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.7% 4.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 3.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 95 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 336 Maine W 71 - 60 82% +6  1 - 0 -3 -4 D+ F A+ +0 B- B F
 Sat, Nov 15 71 @Yale L 79 - 86 8% -7  1 - 1 +4 +16 A+ C+ D- -12 F+ B+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 264 Brown W 80 - 70 67% +9  2 - 1 +1 +11 B+ B B -9 F D C
 Mon, Nov 24 123 Pacific L 58 - 86 26% -17  2 - 2 -26 -11 F+ D D -16 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 248 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 52% -2  3 - 2 +2 -7 D- D- F +10 A A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 162 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 25% +6  4 - 2 +6 +5 B- D+ C+ +1 C+ D A-
 Sat, Dec 6 122 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 18% -8  4 - 3 -4 +6 C- C A -9 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 170 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 48% +8  5 - 3 +0 -7 D- B F +7 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 302 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 75% +16  6 - 3 +12 +7 A+ A+ F +7 A+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 309 Albany L 55 - 71 76% -8  6 - 4 -28 -20 F F A- -9 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 159 @Marist L 51 - 70 24% -13  6 - 5 -16 -12 F F C- -5 C C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 235 @Hampton L 59 - 62 38% +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -8 B- F F +3 C+ C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 133 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 20% -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -14 -9 D- F C -7 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 293 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 72% +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 +8 B+ C C+ -18 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @Drexel L 37 - 56 33% -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -19 -25 F C- C+ +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 121 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 35% +8  7 - 9 1 - 4 -4 +3 C A+ D+ -7 F+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 15 129 Hofstra W 76 - 71 38% +6  8 - 9 2 - 4 +4 +14 A C- B -10 C- B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 160 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 45% +3  9 - 9 3 - 4 +3 +16 A+ D A -15 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 256 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 42% +9  10 - 9 4 - 4 +13 +17 A+ C+ F+ -4 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 207 @Campbell L 73 - 77 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 193 @Elon L 72 - 77 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 186 Monmouth W 68 - 67 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 Northeastern W 78 - 74 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 163 @Towson L 61 - 68 26%
 Mon, Feb 16 201 Drexel W 66 - 65 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 235 Hampton W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Feb 26 186 @Monmouth L 65 - 70 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 129 @Hofstra L 66 - 75 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 163 Towson L 64 - 65 47%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4 -2 C D C- -2 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.5 4.6 2.1 0.2 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 5.3 0.5 9.4 5th
6th 0.9 7.8 1.7 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 5.3 6.1 0.2 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 9.0 1.6 12.0 8th
9th 0.3 6.2 6.2 0.1 12.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 7.9 1.4 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 5.8 3.4 0.1 10.8 11th
12th 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.2 4.6 12th
13th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 13th
Total 0.8 4.0 10.8 19.1 22.9 19.9 13.2 6.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.4% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 6.3% 7.3% 7.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.9
10-8 13.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.7
9-9 19.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.6
8-10 22.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.7
7-11 19.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.9
6-12 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.8 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%