Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #244
Pace 64.5 #297
Improvement +2.3 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 D+ C C- C D
Defense #341 D+ D+ D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.10 #255 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #43 0.75 #186 +3.0 #53
Three Pointers 32% #339 0.97 #240 -5.3 #331
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #271 -3.1 #270
Freethrows 0.30 #204 71% #218 0.21 #203
Second Chance 35.6% #48 0.93 #325 0.33 #150
Turnovers 17.7% #261
Total Offense -2.0 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.14 #153 -1.6 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #313 0.86 #321 +1.0 #115
Three Pointers 42% #141 1.12 #306 -2.8 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #282 -3.4 #283
Freethrows 0.33 #262 70% #75 0.23 #228
Second Chance 37.7% #358 0.96 #71 0.36 #289
Turnovers 14.1% #315
Total Defense -6.1 #341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #305 1.7% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #248 4.8% #268
Possession Length 19.0 #329 16.7 #80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.25 #352
Improvement +4.6 #9 -2.3 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.5% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 25.7% 36.6% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 97.1% 84.6%
Conference Champion 10.9% 16.3% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.5% 4.5% 2.5%
First Round4.5% 6.3% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 413 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 68 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  0 - 1 -5 -10 F C D- +7 A D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 29 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0 - 2 -21 +5 D- A+ C- -22 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 32 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0 - 3 -10 +3 F+ A+ C- -17 C F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 130 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 12% -2  0 - 4 -10 -3 C D- F -8 B+ D- D
 Sat, Nov 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 77% +0  1 - 4 -13 +2 C C C- -15 D C D-
 Sat, Nov 29 340 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 52% -2  1 - 5 -14 -10 F F F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 103 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 8% -10  1 - 6 -24 -18 F+ F C -8 B- D- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 269 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 31% -3  1 - 7 -11 +1 B- F C -12 F+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 57% +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +4 -5 D- C F +8 A- C C
 Sat, Dec 20 322 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 44% -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -3 -2 F D+ B -0 C B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 250 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 27% -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -15 -7 D- C- D+ -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 261 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 30% -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +10 A+ D F -11 F+ D+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 46% +15  4 - 9 3 - 2 -15 +3 B- C+ F -19 D F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 48% -4  5 - 9 4 - 2 -6 +8 A D D- -13 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 229 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 24% -5  5 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +16 C- C A+ -21 F F+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 338 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 51% +7  6 - 10 5 - 3 -2 +8 D- A- A- -9 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 360 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 83% +1  7 - 10 6 - 3 -13 -2 F A- D+ -11 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 312 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 64% +0  8 - 10 7 - 3 -7 +8 B+ B+ F -14 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 261 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 67 52%
 Sat, Jan 31 250 Lindenwood L 76 - 77 49%
 Thu, Feb 5 246 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 72 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 338 Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 229 Tennessee St. L 77 - 78 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 312 @Eastern Illinois L 67 - 69 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 360 @Western Illinois W 71 - 67 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 322 Southern Indiana W 73 - 68 66%
 Thu, Feb 26 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 71 - 75 35%
Totals 13 - 15 12 - 8 -8 -2 D+ C C- -6 D+ D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 4.5 3.5 1.0 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 7.7 4.9 0.9 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 7.3 7.2 0.7 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.2 4.2 9.6 1.4 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 8.7 3.4 0.1 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 6.2 5.9 0.3 13.1 6th
7th 0.5 3.3 5.5 1.0 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.0 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.1 6.6 14.5 20.4 22.3 18.1 10.1 4.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 95.3% 1.0    0.9 0.2
15-5 79.0% 3.5    2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 44.7% 4.5    1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2
13-7 9.2% 1.7    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 4.5 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 18.8% 18.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.1% 25.2% 25.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
15-5 4.4% 21.7% 21.7% 15.8 0.2 0.8 3.5
14-6 10.1% 17.4% 17.4% 15.9 0.1 1.6 8.4
13-7 18.1% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.1 1.6 16.3
12-8 22.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 21.4
11-9 20.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 20.1
10-10 14.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.3
9-11 6.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.5
8-12 2.1% 2.1
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.9 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%