Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #229
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #176
Pace 74.9 #42
Improvement +0.6 #158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 D+ C C D+ D
Defense #260 D- C C+ F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.14 #191 +0.7 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #26 0.71 #258 +2.9 #55
Three Pointers 30% #356 0.93 #290 -7.2 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #287 -3.6 #285
Freethrows 0.26 #314 75% #100 0.19 #283
Second Chance 29.7% #215 1.06 #146 0.32 #180
Turnovers 16.1% #159
Total Offense -1.1 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.24 #284 -6.0 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #340 0.89 #347 +1.2 #100
Three Pointers 40% #219 1.08 #267 -0.6 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #332 -5.3 #332
Freethrows 0.36 #329 77% #346 0.28 #349
Second Chance 31.9% #243 1.03 #161 0.33 #217
Turnovers 17.3% #117
Total Defense -2.8 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #313 2.5% #356
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #257 7.7% #317
Possession Length 16.6 #110 16.4 #46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #112 0.23 #342
Improvement +4.1 #17 -3.5 #341

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 23.6% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 97.5% 99.2% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 97.1%
Conference Champion 29.1% 35.8% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round20.2% 23.1% 13.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 717 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 78 @Belmont L 79 - 87 10% -6  0 - 1 +2 -1 D- C- C+ +5 B- A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 166 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 27% -9  0 - 2 -11 +5 C+ F C- -14 F D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 20 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0 - 3 -9 -10 D- D+ F +4 B D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 204 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 35% -3  1 - 3 +2 -1 F+ A- F +3 F B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 254 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 44% +8  2 - 3 +4 +1 F C+ B- +4 A- D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 297 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 53% -9  2 - 4 -32 -17 F C F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 125 @UNLV W 63 - 60 20% -2  3 - 4 +8 -9 D- B+ F +17 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 231 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 62% +15  4 - 4 1 - 0 +0 +4 B- D- C+ -4 A B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 246 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 65% -10  4 - 5 1 - 1 -17 +0 D- F A -16 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 338 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 67% +9  5 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +12 C- A+ C -8 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 50% +3  6 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +4 F B+ A- -3 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 360 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 79% +14  7 - 5 4 - 1 +10 +11 C+ A D+ -2 C+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 312 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 58% -8  7 - 6 4 - 2 -10 +0 D+ F C -10 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 299 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 76% +5  8 - 6 5 - 2 -6 +14 A+ B- C -21 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 322 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 80% +4  9 - 6 6 - 2 -7 +0 C- D+ A+ -6 F+ C- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 45% -2  9 - 7 6 - 3 -11 +2 F+ C+ A -14 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 250 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 42% +5  10 - 7 7 - 3 +8 +14 A+ C D -7 F B B-
 Thu, Jan 29 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 80 - 74 71%
 Mon, Feb 2 338 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 72 84%
 Thu, Feb 5 312 Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 360 Western Illinois W 80 - 66 91%
 Thu, Feb 12 322 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 74 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 299 @Morehead St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 250 Lindenwood W 84 - 80 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 SIU Edwardsville W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 40%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -4 -1 D+ C C -3 D- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.9 11.3 11.1 3.7 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 12.4 11.6 2.6 0.1 28.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.7 8.9 1.2 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 7.5 1.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.6 4.1 2.2 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.2 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.8 18.4 25.7 24.1 13.7 3.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 98.2% 3.7    3.5 0.3
15-5 81.1% 11.1    7.6 3.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 46.8% 11.3    3.1 5.6 2.3 0.3
13-7 11.2% 2.9    0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 14.4 9.9 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.8% 41.3% 41.3% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 2.2
15-5 13.7% 35.9% 35.9% 14.8 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.4 8.8
14-6 24.1% 28.9% 28.9% 15.2 0.0 0.6 4.2 2.2 17.2
13-7 25.7% 17.7% 17.7% 15.5 0.1 2.2 2.2 21.2
12-8 18.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 16.3
11-9 9.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.3
10-10 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
9-11 0.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 15.1 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.8 1.9 29.9 55.7 12.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%