Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 #338
Expected Predictive Rating -12.5 #339
Pace 69.3 #166
Improvement -6.5 #364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 D D+ D D+ D+
Defense #309 D+ D- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.12 #213 -1.2 #224
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #90 0.67 #302 +0.7 #147
Three Pointers 38% #253 0.87 #336 -4.6 #320
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #321 -5.1 #321
Freethrows 0.27 #275 72% #182 0.20 #257
Second Chance 27.7% #260 1.00 #237 0.28 #264
Turnovers 19.0% #328
Total Offense -6.6 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.21 #251 -0.3 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #232 0.74 #142 +0.8 #127
Three Pointers 44% #94 1.12 #313 -3.8 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.3 #280
Freethrows 0.29 #169 74% #273 0.22 #188
Second Chance 31.6% #230 1.26 #358 0.40 #340
Turnovers 14.9% #281
Total Defense -4.7 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #268 0.3% #195
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.9% #322 6.0% #292
Possession Length 17.6 #200 17.1 #139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #159 0.22 #321
Improvement -2.9 #327 -3.6 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 6.8% 17.7%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 138 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 82 10% -9  0 - 1 -10 -6 C- B+ F -3 A- F C
 Fri, Nov 7 165 @Charlotte L 65 - 70 10% -9  0 - 2 -2 -5 C- A+ F +2 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 328 West Georgia L 59 - 61 58% -6  0 - 3 -15 -18 F D+ F +3 B+ A- B
 Wed, Nov 19 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 88 - 84 29% +3  1 - 3 -2 +7 B- A- F -8 F+ B+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 27 @Kentucky L 54 - 104 1% -18  1 - 4 -32 -12 F D+ B -18 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 29 @Georgia L 81 - 123 1% -23  1 - 5 -24 -0 C- C- B -16 F B D+
 Wed, Dec 3 169 @Lipscomb L 80 - 83 11% -1  1 - 6 -1 +5 B+ C- B- -5 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 328 @West Georgia W 87 - 59 35% +11  2 - 6 +21 +10 A+ F D+ +11 A+ F+ A-
 Thu, Dec 18 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 85 - 74 36% +2  3 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +7 D- C+ B -5 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 231 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 86 34% +7  3 - 7 1 - 1 -31 -5 B- F F -28 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 229 Tennessee St. L 76 - 88 33% -9  3 - 8 1 - 2 -19 -1 B D- F+ -17 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 24% -5  3 - 9 1 - 3 -23 -15 F C F -8 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 8 312 @Eastern Illinois L 61 - 71 30% +2  3 - 10 1 - 4 -16 -3 D D- F -14 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @Western Illinois W 59 - 54 54% -2  4 - 10 2 - 4 -7 -10 F F F+ +4 D B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 322 Southern Indiana L 54 - 71 55% +0  4 - 11 2 - 5 -30 -20 F D- F -10 C D F
 Sat, Jan 17 299 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 49% -7  4 - 12 2 - 6 -17 -3 F B B- -15 C F F
 Thu, Jan 22 250 @Lindenwood L 68 - 89 19% -19  4 - 13 2 - 7 -23 -10 F F F+ -12 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 62 20% -9  4 - 14 2 - 8 -7 -1 D- D+ A+ -6 C+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 72 - 74 44%
 Mon, Feb 2 229 @Tennessee St. L 72 - 82 16%
 Thu, Feb 5 360 Western Illinois W 73 - 66 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 312 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 67 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 299 @Morehead St. L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 322 @Southern Indiana L 68 - 73 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 261 SIU Edwardsville L 65 - 68 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 250 Lindenwood L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 231 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 246 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 79 18%
Totals 8 - 20 6 - 14 -11 -7 D D+ D -5 D+ D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 8.6 14.3 11.1 4.0 0.4 40.7 9th
10th 0.4 4.7 13.1 14.6 8.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 43.0 10th
11th 1.0 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.8 11th
Total 1.3 7.4 17.0 23.8 22.8 15.4 8.3 3.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-12 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.2
7-13 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
6-14 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.8
5-15 23.8% 23.8
4-16 17.0% 17.0
3-17 7.4% 7.4
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%