Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #294
Pace 65.5 #270
Improvement -0.5 #213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #356 F+ D D C D-
Defense #163 C F+ C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.01 #336 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #15 0.62 #344 +2.1 #73
Three Pointers 31% #344 0.93 #293 -6.3 #343
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #356 -8.0 #356
Freethrows 0.28 #260 77% #25 0.21 #194
Second Chance 26.5% #292 0.97 #277 0.26 #303
Turnovers 18.4% #301
Total Offense -9.0 #356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.25 #288 -2.5 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.79 #245 +1.8 #57
Three Pointers 45% #66 0.85 #16 +1.6 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #150 +0.9 #149
Freethrows 0.32 #243 78% #359 0.25 #300
Second Chance 36.4% #347 1.16 #312 0.42 #355
Turnovers 17.6% #100
Total Defense +0.1 #163

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #339 1.6% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.0% #351 -3.4% #116
Possession Length 19.1 #334 16.6 #54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.18 #227
Improvement -1.9 #283 +1.3 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.4% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.4% 6.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 66.8% 34.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.6% 2.2% 1.2%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 411 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 15% -5  0 - 1 -1 -7 C- F F +7 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 7 255 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 48% +5  1 - 1 -0 -11 F C+ D+ +11 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 5% -7  1 - 2 -10 -1 C+ F+ D- -12 B F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -28 -9 D- F B- -20 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 219 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 21% -16  1 - 4 -21 -7 D- D D+ -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 8 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -24 -4 B F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 250 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 46% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -3 F B- A -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 263 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 49% -5  1 - 7 -18 -15 F D F+ -4 C C C
 Sun, Dec 14 9 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 1% -15  1 - 8 -2 -8 D- D+ D +6 A- A B
 Thu, Dec 18 261 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 49% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -5 +1 B C F -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 246 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 25% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -13 D- F C- +2 B+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 231 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 23% +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -5 -7 F F D- +2 B F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 338 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 70% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +1 D C+ B -4 C D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 229 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 42% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -1 C- C B- -1 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 360 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 81% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -16 -19 F F F+ +3 A F+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 31% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -7 F A- F -9 D F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 322 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 41% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 +1 -15 F D D- +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 299 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 36% -0  6 - 12 5 - 5 -10 -1 F A- F -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 231 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 64 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 246 Southeast Missouri St. L 67 - 68 45%
 Thu, Feb 5 229 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 68 47%
 Tue, Feb 10 360 @Western Illinois W 65 - 62 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 67 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 Morehead St. W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 322 Southern Indiana W 67 - 63 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 250 @Lindenwood L 67 - 74 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 65 28%
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9 -9 F+ D D +0 C F+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 1.0 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 3.5 0.2 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 6.4 1.1 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.1 4.6 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 8.3 9.0 1.3 20.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.8 13.5 12.2 3.0 0.0 35.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.7 0.2 6.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.4 2.8 9.1 16.8 22.2 21.0 15.5 8.2 3.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 91.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 56.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
13-7 13.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 23.8% 23.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 0.6
13-7 3.2% 11.4% 11.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.8
12-8 8.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 7.7
11-9 15.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 15.1
10-10 21.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 20.6
9-11 22.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.9
8-12 16.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 16.7
7-13 9.1% 9.1
6-14 2.8% 2.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%