Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #246
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #262
Pace 72.9 #76
Improvement -1.0 #234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #283 D+ B- C D+ C+
Defense #181 D+ D+ C+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.06 #290 +0.7 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.80 #115 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 37% #272 0.92 #305 -4.0 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #272 -3.1 #272
Freethrows 0.30 #197 66% #348 0.20 #263
Second Chance 27.9% #255 1.31 #4 0.37 #80
Turnovers 16.1% #157
Total Offense -4.2 #283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.17 #200 -3.2 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #219 0.86 #322 -0.4 #212
Three Pointers 38% #277 1.05 #242 +1.1 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.5 #266
Freethrows 0.41 #363 76% #342 0.31 #363
Second Chance 29.5% #135 1.22 #346 0.36 #283
Turnovers 17.3% #118
Total Defense -0.5 #181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #137 1.1% #272
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #295 3.8% #256
Possession Length 17.0 #140 17.1 #134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #243 0.20 #273
Improvement -2.4 #305 +1.4 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 12.5% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 53.9% 61.5% 29.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 92.6% 70.8%
Conference Champion 5.1% 6.4% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
First Round10.0% 11.2% 6.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 413 - 914 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  0 - 1 -7 -2 D+ F+ A- -2 B- C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 56 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  0 - 2 +8 +8 A- C F +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 36% -13  0 - 3 -13 -8 D- B- C -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -10 +9 B- A+ F+ -20 F F C
 Tue, Nov 25 289 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 60% +3  1 - 4 +9 +2 D+ C+ C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 313 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 55% -7  1 - 5 -13 -5 F C A -8 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 169 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 46% -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F+ D D- -7 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 254 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 41% -1  2 - 6 +2 +4 C B- D -2 D- D- B
 Thu, Dec 18 338 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 64% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -19 -4 F B+ F -15 C F F+
 Sat, Dec 20 229 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 35% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +9 A- A+ F -2 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 312 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 75% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -6 F+ A+ B +3 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 360 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 89% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +5 -1 D+ A+ D- +8 B+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 8 322 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 57% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +1 +11 A+ D- B- -10 F+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 299 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 52% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 D- C- A+ -10 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 15 250 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 62% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -20 -10 F B+ C- -9 D+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 261 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 65% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -22 -13 D- F+ F -10 F D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 231 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 59% +20  7 - 10 5 - 4 +9 -2 D B- D- +12 B C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 69% +5  8 - 10 6 - 4 -5 -6 D F B- +1 B+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 360 @Western Illinois W 74 - 66 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 67 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 299 Morehead St. W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 322 Southern Indiana W 76 - 68 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 @Lindenwood L 76 - 79 39%
 Tue, Feb 17 231 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 338 Tennessee Tech W 79 - 69 82%
Totals 13 - 14 11 - 8 -5 -4 D+ B- C +0 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.1 2.5 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 7.6 6.4 0.4 15.1 3rd
4th 0.2 4.9 10.0 1.3 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 9.9 3.9 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.0 7.3 0.5 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.1 1.3 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.4 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.9 17.8 24.2 23.4 15.1 5.8 1.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 89.7% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 50.6% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1
13-7 8.1% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.1% 37.9% 37.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 5.8% 33.2% 33.2% 15.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 3.9
13-7 15.1% 21.3% 21.3% 15.6 0.0 1.1 2.1 11.9
12-8 23.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.1 20.7
11-9 24.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.2 1.4 22.5
10-10 17.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0 16.8
9-11 8.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 8.6
8-12 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.0
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.6 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.2 9.9 61.7 27.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%