Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.8 #103
Expected Predictive Rating +6.4 #85
Pace 78.1 #14
Improvement -2.0 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #67 B- B- B- B- C+
Defense #179 B- C- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.22 #113 +1.3 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #236 0.82 #92 -0.5 #205
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.06 #112 +2.4 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +3.1 #90
Freethrows 0.32 #122 77% #43 0.25 #89
Second Chance 32.3% #135 1.13 #75 0.37 #83
Turnovers 14.7% #78
Total Offense +5.3 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.04 #55 -2.5 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #31 0.76 #188 -2.5 #342
Three Pointers 26% #365 1.04 #224 +7.6 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #93 +2.6 #94
Freethrows 0.28 #112 73% #217 0.21 #134
Second Chance 32.2% #261 1.07 #224 0.34 #248
Turnovers 15.9% #214
Total Defense -0.5 #179

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -0.4% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #92 -4.7% #86
Possession Length 16.0 #56 16.5 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #186 0.18 #212
Improvement -0.5 #209 -1.5 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 19.8% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 20.4% 43.9% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round16.6% 19.7% 15.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 512 - 11
Quad 411 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 81% +5  1 - 0 +3 -0 F C+ F+ +3 C B A
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 B+ F A+ +1 B- B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 37 @SMU L 91 - 102 13% -9  2 - 1 +6 +11 A- A- C -4 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 255 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 89% +11  3 - 1 +12 +15 A+ A+ F -5 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 91% +16  4 - 1 +11 +16 C A+ A+ -4 A F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 142 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 64% -3  4 - 2 -2 +10 B+ C A -11 B- F D
 Mon, Nov 24 82 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 41% -16  4 - 3 -6 -14 F C D- +9 B+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 65 George Washington W 96 - 95 36% +1  5 - 3 +10 +22 A A+ A- -12 C B F
 Tue, Dec 2 299 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 92% +10  6 - 3 +21 +7 D+ B+ D +15 A- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 303 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 93% +13  7 - 3 +2 +2 A- F F +0 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 62 Akron W 115 - 100 34% +9  8 - 3 +24 +26 A+ B+ F+ -4 C A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 152 Drake W 81 - 72 76% +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +6 +11 D A A+ -4 A- F+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 167 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 59% -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +8 +13 A+ F B -5 D+ D+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 134 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 72% +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +2 +9 A+ F C- -7 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 138 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 52% -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +8 +8 F A+ C+ +1 B C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 127 Bradley W 86 - 66 71% +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +19 +14 A+ C B- +5 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 267 @Evansville W 79 - 69 77% +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +7 +6 C- B- A +1 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 167 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 79% +6  15 - 3 7 - 0 +9 +13 A+ D- B -5 D C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 196 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 83% +5  16 - 3 8 - 0 -1 +8 B- B+ C -9 B F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 152 @Drake L 90 - 101 55% -5  16 - 4 8 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D+ B- -12 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 114 @Northern Iowa L 76 - 81 44% -4  16 - 5 8 - 2 +1 +16 C A+ A- -15 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 88 Illinois St. L 65 - 70 55% -3  16 - 6 8 - 3 -2 -4 F C+ A+ +2 C+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 78 @Belmont L 83 - 89 30%
 Tue, Feb 3 138 Illinois-Chicago W 83 - 77 73%
 Fri, Feb 6 134 @Southern Illinois W 81 - 80 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 114 Northern Iowa W 73 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 12 196 @Indiana St. W 86 - 82 65%
 Sun, Feb 15 78 Belmont W 87 - 86 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 88 @Illinois St. L 77 - 82 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 267 Evansville W 86 - 72 90%
 Sun, Mar 1 127 @Bradley L 82 - 83 49%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +5 +5 B- B- B- +0 B- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.6 8.9 4.3 0.8 20.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 12.3 13.7 3.7 0.1 32.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 9.8 11.2 2.6 0.0 25.2 3rd
4th 0.3 4.4 6.5 1.2 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.6 0.9 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.7 10.4 19.8 25.5 22.0 12.7 4.4 0.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-4 96.9% 4.3    3.5 0.8
15-5 70.6% 8.9    4.4 4.1 0.5
14-6 25.7% 5.6    1.2 2.8 1.5 0.2
13-7 2.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 9.8 7.8 2.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.8% 30.3% 28.9% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.9%
16-4 4.4% 26.0% 25.9% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 3.3 0.2%
15-5 12.7% 23.4% 23.4% 0.1% 11.9 0.5 2.2 0.2 9.7 0.1%
14-6 22.0% 19.9% 19.9% 12.0 0.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 17.6
13-7 25.5% 16.7% 16.7% 12.2 0.1 3.2 0.9 0.0 21.2
12-8 19.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.3 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.0 17.3
11-9 10.4% 8.1% 8.1% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 9.6
10-10 3.7% 6.8% 6.8% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
9-11 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 12.1 83.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.1 2.3 88.6 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 3.6% 11.0 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 2.9% 11.0 2.9