Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#99
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#88
Pace77.9#22
Improvement+3.7#18

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#69
First Shot+3.8#78
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#103
Layup/Dunks-0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#79
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement+2.5#33

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#146
Layups/Dunks-3.4#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#27
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement+1.2#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.3% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 95.7% 97.7% 90.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 89.5% 71.5%
Conference Champion 17.9% 21.6% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round14.7% 16.2% 10.6%
Second Round2.5% 2.7% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 511 - 10
Quad 411 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 234 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 80%     1 - 0 +3.9 -1.1 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +22.3 +14.4 +3.4
  Tue, Nov 11 38 @SMU L 91-102 17%     2 - 1 +4.1 +11.6 -6.0
  Sat, Nov 15 259 Nicholls St. W 99-79 89%     3 - 1 +11.6 +16.1 -5.9
  Tue, Nov 18 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 93%     4 - 1 +9.0 +15.4 -5.2
  Sun, Nov 23 157 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 68%     4 - 2 -2.8 +7.7 -10.3
  Mon, Nov 24 70 McNeese St. L 60-73 38%     4 - 3 -5.1 -11.1 +6.8
  Tue, Nov 25 82 George Washington W 96-95 41%     5 - 3 +8.3 +20.7 -12.4
  Tue, Dec 2 322 Morehead St. W 84-52 94%     6 - 3 +19.4 +8.6 +12.1
  Sat, Dec 6 295 Bellarmine W 81-68 92%     7 - 3 +2.6 +5.2 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 65 Akron W 115-100 37%     8 - 3 +23.4 +23.8 -2.6
  Thu, Dec 18 136 Drake W 82-76 72%    
  Sun, Dec 21 213 @Valparaiso W 79-74 69%    
  Mon, Dec 29 129 Southern Illinois W 85-79 71%    
  Thu, Jan 1 189 @Illinois-Chicago W 84-80 63%    
  Sun, Jan 4 116 Bradley W 81-76 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 275 @Evansville W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 213 Valparaiso W 82-71 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 181 Indiana St. W 87-78 80%    
  Wed, Jan 21 136 @Drake W 79-78 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 93 @Northern Iowa L 70-74 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 90 Illinois St. W 81-79 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 85 @Belmont L 83-88 33%    
  Tue, Feb 3 189 Illinois-Chicago W 87-77 81%    
  Fri, Feb 6 129 @Southern Illinois L 82-83 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 93 Northern Iowa W 73-71 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 181 @Indiana St. W 84-81 62%    
  Sun, Feb 15 85 Belmont W 86-85 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 90 @Illinois St. L 78-82 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 275 Evansville W 85-71 89%    
  Sun, Mar 1 116 @Bradley L 78-79 45%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 4.9 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 17.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.6 6.4 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.4 3.8 0.8 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 1.3 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.6 9.6 11.8 13.7 13.6 12.7 10.1 6.8 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.9% 1.8    1.7 0.1
17-3 90.9% 3.5    3.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 71.6% 4.9    3.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 47.2% 4.7    2.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-6 16.0% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 10.8 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 68.8% 43.8% 25.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4%
19-1 0.4% 49.2% 39.8% 9.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 15.6%
18-2 1.8% 41.9% 38.7% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.0 5.2%
17-3 3.8% 32.2% 31.6% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 2.6 0.9%
16-4 6.8% 28.1% 27.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 4.9 0.3%
15-5 10.1% 23.7% 23.7% 11.9 0.5 1.7 0.2 7.7
14-6 12.7% 20.3% 20.3% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.1
13-7 13.6% 15.2% 15.2% 12.2 0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 11.6
12-8 13.7% 10.7% 10.7% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.3
11-9 11.8% 8.7% 8.7% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.8
10-10 9.6% 6.2% 6.2% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.0
9-11 6.6% 4.4% 4.4% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
8-12 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-13 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 2.5
6-14 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.8% 14.6% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 85.2 0.2%