Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 #155
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 #152
Pace 65.2 #277
Improvement +0.4 #165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 C+ C- C+ D D+
Defense #172 B- C- C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.09 #263 -5.4 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.92 #21 +2.3 #68
Three Pointers 47% #63 1.08 #88 +4.7 #43
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.6 #132
Freethrows 0.25 #325 73% #145 0.18 #309
Second Chance 29.7% #211 1.02 #211 0.30 #208
Turnovers 15.8% #138
Total Offense +0.4 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #25 1.08 #78 -2.2 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.78 #210 +0.0 #181
Three Pointers 35% #339 0.91 #55 +5.2 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #79 +3.0 #79
Freethrows 0.28 #113 76% #334 0.21 #162
Second Chance 30.8% #194 1.14 #296 0.35 #263
Turnovers 15.1% #262
Total Defense -0.2 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #285 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #102 -7.0% #61
Possession Length 18.8 #316 17.0 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #246 0.14 #90
Improvement +1.9 #82 -1.6 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.9% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 89.3% 94.5% 78.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 38.5% 45.0% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round21.1% 22.9% 17.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 45 - 9
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 80 @Colorado L 78 - 84 18% -1  0 - 1 +4 +9 A F+ C -5 C C C
 Sun, Nov 9 284 Denver L 73 - 75 83% +2  0 - 2 -12 -4 D- B C -9 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 84 @Stanford L 68 - 77 18% -4  0 - 3 +1 -4 B- D+ D- +5 A- C C+
 Sat, Nov 15 58 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 13% -2  0 - 4 +8 -2 C F B +10 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 251 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 58% +3  1 - 4 +4 +5 C- C+ A- -1 C+ C C-
 Sat, Nov 29 38 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 7% -3  1 - 5 +13 +7 B- D+ C+ +7 A- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 128 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 55% +1  2 - 5 +7 +11 C+ C- A+ -4 F+ A A
 Sat, Dec 6 331 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 77% +6  2 - 6 -12 -2 C+ F+ F -10 B- D C
 Sat, Dec 13 182 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 46% -4  2 - 7 -9 -11 F B D- +1 A+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 289 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 67% +3  3 - 7 -1 +6 F+ A A- -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 197 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 70% +6  4 - 7 1 - 0 +9 +9 B- A+ B -1 A- F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 87% +7  5 - 7 2 - 0 -3 +5 B- C B+ -7 D+ C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 241 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 56% -0  6 - 7 3 - 0 +3 -1 C- D+ F +4 A+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 188 @Idaho L 89 - 92 47% +9  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +18 A+ C D -20 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 161 Montana W 76 - 67 62% +0  7 - 8 4 - 1 +6 +1 C D+ C +5 B- A+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 197 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 48% +4  8 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +4 B F B +3 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 228 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 75% +5  9 - 8 6 - 1 +5 +5 C B A+ +2 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 215 Weber St. W 91 - 88 73% +2  10 - 8 7 - 1 -3 +13 A+ C C- -16 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 294 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 67%
 Sat, Jan 31 148 @Portland St. L 68 - 71 37%
 Thu, Feb 5 188 Idaho W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 241 Eastern Washington W 78 - 70 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 161 @Montana L 72 - 75 40%
 Thu, Feb 19 215 @Weber St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 228 @Idaho St. W 72 - 71 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 148 Portland St. W 71 - 68 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 Sacramento St. W 82 - 71 84%
 Mon, Mar 2 313 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 72%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 5 +0 +0 C+ C- C+ +0 B- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.8 12.6 12.3 5.5 1.2 38.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 9.9 14.4 8.6 1.9 0.1 37.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.3 6.6 2.2 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.0 10.8 17.8 22.5 21.3 14.3 5.6 1.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
16-2 98.9% 5.5    5.2 0.4
15-3 86.5% 12.3    9.3 3.0 0.0
14-4 59.1% 12.6    6.3 5.5 0.8
13-5 26.0% 5.8    1.7 2.8 1.2 0.1
12-6 5.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.5% 38.5 23.8 12.1 2.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 41.0% 41.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-2 5.6% 34.6% 34.6% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.7
15-3 14.3% 28.7% 28.7% 13.7 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.3 10.2
14-4 21.3% 24.7% 24.7% 14.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.1 0.0 16.0
13-5 22.5% 19.5% 19.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.7 0.0 18.1
12-6 17.8% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.1 15.0
11-7 10.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 9.3
10-8 5.0% 12.0% 12.0% 15.5 0.3 0.3 4.4
9-9 1.3% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
8-10 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 14.1 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.4 7.1 46.9 43.9 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%