Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#174
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#263
Pace65.2#295
Improvement-1.7#299

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#209
First Shot-1.3#209
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#193
Layup/Dunks-3.9#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#71
Freethrows-3.7#346
Improvement-0.7#235

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#146
First Shot-1.8#236
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#33
Layups/Dunks-2.4#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#20
Freethrows-2.8#331
Improvement-1.1#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.5% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 36.3% 46.3% 24.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 75.6% 66.8%
Conference Champion 17.3% 20.4% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 3.6% 5.8%
First Four2.6% 2.0% 3.2%
First Round12.6% 14.8% 10.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 62 @Colorado L 78-84 12%     0 - 1 +5.8 +9.6 -3.9
  Sun, Nov 9 312 Denver L 73-75 85%     0 - 2 -14.0 -4.9 -9.3
  Wed, Nov 12 92 @Stanford L 68-77 18%     0 - 3 -0.3 -5.0 +5.3
  Sat, Nov 15 47 @Boise St. L 58-62 9%     0 - 4 +10.1 +0.0 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 21 277 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 58%     1 - 4 +2.8 +3.6 -0.7
  Sat, Nov 29 46 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 8%     1 - 5 +11.3 +6.6 +5.0
  Wed, Dec 3 135 St. Thomas W 82-74 51%     2 - 5 +6.7 +10.9 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 6 300 @Oral Roberts L 68-72 64%     2 - 6 -8.8 -2.7 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 13 159 @Oregon St. L 57-67 34%     2 - 7 -6.8 -9.0 +1.3
  Tue, Dec 16 250 @Cal Poly W 78-77 54%    
  Thu, Jan 1 154 Northern Colorado W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 270 Northern Arizona W 72-64 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 241 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 172 @Idaho L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 205 Montana W 76-71 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 154 @Northern Colorado L 70-74 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 163 Idaho St. W 68-66 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 212 Weber St. W 74-69 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 279 @Sacramento St. W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 @Portland St. L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 172 Idaho W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 241 Eastern Washington W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 205 @Montana L 73-74 46%    
  Thu, Feb 19 212 @Weber St. L 71-72 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 163 @Idaho St. L 65-69 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 177 Portland St. W 69-66 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 279 Sacramento St. W 77-69 77%    
  Mon, Mar 2 270 @Northern Arizona W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 17.3 1st
2nd 0.6 3.7 6.0 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 6.1 2.7 0.3 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.7 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.0 0.4 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.0 7.6 10.4 12.7 13.8 13.3 11.7 9.0 6.0 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.1% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 94.2% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 79.9% 4.8    3.2 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 50.1% 4.5    2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 20.5% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.6 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.3% 42.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 45.7% 45.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.5% 38.8% 38.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 34.2% 34.2% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.1
14-4 6.0% 30.8% 30.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.2
13-5 9.0% 24.0% 24.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 6.8
12-6 11.7% 19.2% 19.2% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 9.4
11-7 13.3% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6 11.4
10-8 13.8% 10.3% 10.3% 15.8 0.3 1.1 12.3
9-9 12.7% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0 11.6
8-10 10.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.5 9.9
7-11 7.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 7.4
6-12 5.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-14 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 4.1 86.5 0.0%