Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #152
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #162
Pace 66.7 #238
Improvement +0.9 #143

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #157 C+ D+ B C C-
Defense #155 C B D+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #332 1.23 #101 -2.8 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.83 #77 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 47% #64 1.02 #191 +3.0 #82
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #139 +1.2 #138
Freethrows 0.31 #147 70% #251 0.22 #175
Second Chance 25.2% #319 1.08 #120 0.27 #270
Turnovers 14.3% #54
Total Offense +0.1 #157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #334 1.25 #290 +2.7 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.67 #49 +0.4 #153
Three Pointers 47% #42 1.05 #232 -3.5 #318
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #192 -0.4 #193
Freethrows 0.30 #188 69% #44 0.21 #147
Second Chance 28.9% #115 0.91 #35 0.26 #55
Turnovers 15.0% #271
Total Defense +0.3 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #262 -1.3% #71
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.6% #119 2.1% #217
Possession Length 18.0 #237 17.1 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #233 0.17 #178
Improvement +0.2 #170 +0.8 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 40.5% 53.9% 23.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 73.7% 42.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.1% 3.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 37 - 78 - 14
Quad 46 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 81% +0  1 - 0 -3 -1 C+ F B -2 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 203 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 72% -2  1 - 1 -8 -3 F D A+ -5 D- B- A
 Fri, Nov 14 261 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 80% -5  1 - 2 -11 -6 D- B B -5 D A D
 Mon, Nov 17 160 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 40% +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D- F +11 A- A C
 Fri, Nov 28 47 LSU L 62 - 71 16% -9  2 - 3 +2 -5 D- F A+ +7 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 111 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 38% +5  3 - 3 +14 +21 A- A+ A+ -7 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 360 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  4 - 3 +33 +39 A+ A+ C+ -1 C A F+
 Fri, Dec 5 118 UAB L 69 - 74 53% -2  4 - 4 -5 -3 D- C- A -3 C+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 137 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 58% -9  4 - 5 -7 +17 A+ F C -23 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 103 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 24% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 -1 +4 D+ C+ C- -5 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 267 @Evansville W 66 - 65 63% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -1 C D+ D+ -1 A- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 88 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 39% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -11 F+ C- B -4 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 196 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 71% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +7 A C C+ -10 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 127 @Bradley L 66 - 93 33% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -22 -8 D+ F C+ -12 F C D
 Sat, Jan 10 78 Belmont L 76 - 78 35% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +2 +1 A+ F F +2 A+ D C
 Wed, Jan 14 134 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 34% -4  7 - 9 3 - 4 +8 -0 D- B C +7 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 35% -7  7 - 10 3 - 5 -3 +1 C F A+ -4 B C D-
 Wed, Jan 21 103 Murray St. W 101 - 90 45% +5  8 - 10 4 - 5 +13 +12 C+ A+ A+ -0 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 196 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 49% +5  9 - 10 5 - 5 +15 +1 C F B +13 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 267 Evansville W 82 - 78 81% -6  10 - 10 6 - 5 -5 +11 C+ D+ A+ -16 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 127 Bradley W 74 - 73 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 78 @Belmont L 72 - 82 17%
 Fri, Feb 6 88 @Illinois St. L 66 - 75 19%
 Mon, Feb 9 167 Valparaiso W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 138 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 70 58%
 Sun, Feb 15 114 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 66 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 134 Southern Illinois W 72 - 70 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 167 @Valparaiso L 69 - 71 42%
 Sun, Mar 1 114 Northern Iowa W 64 - 63 50%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 10 +0 +0 C+ D+ B +0 C B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.2 2.1 0.1 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.9 5.0 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.4 7.4 8.6 1.0 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.1 5.1 11.7 2.3 0.0 19.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 11.6 4.5 0.1 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.7 4.8 0.3 13.3 8th
9th 0.6 3.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 4.8 12.5 22.1 24.8 19.2 10.9 4.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 84.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 21.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.8% 12.0% 12.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 4.1% 8.5% 8.5% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.7
12-8 10.9% 6.5% 6.5% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.2
11-9 19.2% 4.5% 4.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 18.4
10-10 24.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 24.1
9-11 22.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 21.8
8-12 12.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 12.5
7-13 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 4.8
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.6 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%