Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 #306
Pace 76.8 #24
Improvement -1.2 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 F+ C+ C+ B D
Defense #296 D+ C- C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 0.99 #343 -5.1 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.68 #290 +1.9 #84
Three Pointers 37% #267 0.84 #353 -5.4 #333
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #361 -8.5 #361
Freethrows 0.33 #115 77% #22 0.25 #62
Second Chance 28.8% #232 1.24 #17 0.36 #100
Turnovers 15.7% #128
Total Offense -3.4 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.19 #217 -3.1 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #348 0.92 #356 +1.3 #88
Three Pointers 43% #110 1.03 #207 -1.4 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #277 -3.2 #277
Freethrows 0.30 #191 74% #283 0.23 #217
Second Chance 32.0% #251 1.09 #242 0.35 #256
Turnovers 15.6% #227
Total Defense -4.2 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #321 2.3% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.5% #358 3.9% #257
Possession Length 16.2 #67 16.4 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.21 #316
Improvement +1.3 #117 -2.5 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.8% 14.0% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.0% 14.4% 31.7%
First Four1.2% 1.9% 0.9%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 101 - 16
Quad 46 - 67 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 146 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 30% -6  0 - 1 -7 +5 B C C -12 C C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 181 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 20% +2  0 - 2 -3 -2 D- C+ D+ -1 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 269 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 56% -4  1 - 2 -7 -9 F A- F +3 A- B+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 34 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2% -19  1 - 3 -14 -18 F C- B- +4 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 69 @California L 67 - 91 5% -18  1 - 4 -13 -4 F B B -7 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 123 @Pacific L 54 - 68 12% -6  1 - 5 -9 -17 F D+ C +8 B- B B+
 Tue, Dec 2 48 @Baylor L 88 - 110 3% -7  1 - 6 -8 +13 F+ A+ D+ -19 F F B
 Sat, Dec 20 140 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 14% -2  1 - 7 -3 +0 F A+ D+ -3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 24% -4  1 - 8 -12 +2 D- D- A+ -13 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 228 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 26% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -14 -2 D- B- C- -10 F B F+
 Sat, Jan 3 215 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 24% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -13 +0 C+ F+ F+ -12 D F+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 148 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 15% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -0 F F A+ -22 F B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 313 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 66% +1  2 - 11 1 - 3 +2 +7 D A+ A+ -4 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 41% -7  3 - 11 2 - 3 -1 +4 C- C+ B -6 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 188 @Idaho L 76 - 86 21% -7  3 - 12 2 - 4 -9 +1 F A B -10 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 241 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 28% -7  3 - 13 2 - 5 -9 -3 F D+ D+ -7 B- F D
 Thu, Jan 29 155 Montana St. L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Montana L 78 - 83 33%
 Mon, Feb 2 215 Weber St. L 81 - 82 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 148 Portland St. L 73 - 78 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 197 @Northern Colorado L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 313 @Northern Arizona L 76 - 78 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 241 Eastern Washington L 80 - 81 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 Idaho L 76 - 79 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 161 @Montana L 75 - 86 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 155 @Montana St. L 71 - 82 16%
 Mon, Mar 2 228 Idaho St. L 77 - 78 47%
Totals 7 - 20 6 - 12 -8 -3 F+ C+ C+ -4 D+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 4.7 1.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.5 7.9 2.4 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.6 10.6 4.3 0.2 22.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 9.7 12.9 5.1 0.5 30.7 9th
10th 1.8 4.8 5.2 1.7 0.1 13.6 10th
Total 2.1 7.2 15.7 21.6 20.5 16.0 10.1 4.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 10.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.6% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6
9-9 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 4.4
8-10 10.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.9
7-11 16.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.8
6-12 20.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 20.3
5-13 21.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.4
4-14 15.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.6
3-15 7.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-16 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%