Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #197
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #220
Pace 70.8 #130
Improvement -4.5 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #143 B- C- C- D C
Defense #269 C C F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.25 #80 +0.6 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.79 #129 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 45% #103 1.09 #76 +3.7 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #70 +3.9 #70
Freethrows 0.24 #332 74% #131 0.18 #314
Second Chance 28.4% #243 1.06 #157 0.30 #211
Turnovers 17.2% #240
Total Offense +0.7 #143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #36 1.19 #230 -4.1 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #174 0.81 #271 -0.5 #226
Three Pointers 35% #333 0.91 #49 +5.0 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #173 +0.3 #172
Freethrows 0.34 #299 75% #308 0.25 #309
Second Chance 26.6% #52 1.19 #336 0.32 #178
Turnovers 12.4% #352
Total Defense -3.0 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 0.8% #240
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.3% #67 -1.4% #161
Possession Length 17.5 #184 17.2 #157
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #346 0.15 #106
Improvement -1.2 #247 -3.3 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.6% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 48.4% 59.8% 31.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 20.2% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 7.0% 19.3%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round6.3% 7.4% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 75 - 9
Quad 410 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 281 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 57% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 B- C F +0 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 34% +5  1 - 1 +1 -3 C B F +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 218 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 42% +2  2 - 1 +6 +3 C C B +2 B+ F D+
 Sun, Nov 23 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 54% +4  3 - 1 +1 +10 C C+ A+ -10 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 347 @Air Force W 71 - 53 74% +5  4 - 1 +9 +7 A+ F C+ +5 B+ C- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 243 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 47% +1  5 - 1 +3 +5 B F C+ -2 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 287 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 78% +2  6 - 1 -8 +1 A D- D- -10 D C C-
 Tue, Dec 16 15 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  6 - 2 +10 +27 A+ A+ B -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 284 Denver L 79 - 86 77% +2  6 - 3 -17 -6 D D- C -11 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 80 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  7 - 3 +15 +12 A+ C D +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 155 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 30% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +2 C A- F+ -12 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 161 @Montana L 79 - 88 31% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -6 +1 F+ C+ B- -7 C+ B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 228 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 67% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +14 A+ D- B+ -6 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 215 Weber St. L 71 - 76 65% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -11 -3 D- C C- -9 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 148 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 28% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +4 A+ F D+ -3 C F A
 Sat, Jan 17 294 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 59% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -9 +2 B- F+ C- -10 F+ C+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 155 Montana St. L 68 - 73 52% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -8 -2 C- B+ D- -6 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 64% -2  8 - 10 1 - 7 -10 +9 A- B F -20 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 188 Idaho W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Jan 31 241 Eastern Washington W 82 - 77 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 215 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @Idaho St. L 75 - 77 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 294 Sacramento St. W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 Portland St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 313 Northern Arizona W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 241 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 @Idaho L 75 - 78 38%
 Mon, Mar 2 161 Montana W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 14 - 14 7 - 11 -2 +1 B- C- C- -3 C C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.6 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.3 5.2 8.7 1.8 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.4 5.2 10.5 3.6 0.1 19.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.9 12.1 5.0 0.4 24.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.6 7.3 4.0 0.4 17.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1 5.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.3 14.4 21.6 21.5 17.7 9.9 3.5 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 19.2% 19.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
10-8 3.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.9
9-9 9.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 8.5
8-10 17.7% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 16.2
7-11 21.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 20.3
6-12 21.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.4 0.7 20.5
5-13 14.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.9
4-14 7.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 7.1
3-15 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.0 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 26.1 73.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%