Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#154
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#92
Pace70.8#153
Improvement-0.8#234

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#147
First Shot+1.7#129
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#252
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#128
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#174
First Shot+0.6#147
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks-4.8#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#9
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-0.6#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 26.5% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 90.4% 98.2% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 90.4% 79.3%
Conference Champion 26.1% 41.1% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 0.8% 3.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round18.5% 26.4% 18.1%
Second Round1.1% 2.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 292 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 67%     1 - 0 +2.8 +2.1 -0.4
  Fri, Nov 21 135 St. Thomas L 72-73 44%     1 - 1 +0.7 -3.1 +3.8
  Sat, Nov 22 243 @Portland W 86-80 OT 57%     2 - 1 +4.3 +1.6 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 23 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 72%     3 - 1 -1.7 +8.4 -10.7
  Wed, Nov 26 324 @Air Force W 71-53 75%     4 - 1 +11.3 +7.2 +6.7
  Wed, Dec 3 234 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 55%     5 - 1 +3.9 +4.3 -0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 278 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 81%     6 - 1 -7.2 +2.0 -9.3
  Tue, Dec 16 24 @Texas Tech L 67-85 5%    
  Sat, Dec 20 312 Denver W 86-74 88%    
  Sun, Dec 28 62 @Colorado L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 174 @Montana St. L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Jan 3 205 @Montana W 79-78 51%    
  Thu, Jan 8 163 Idaho St. W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 212 Weber St. W 80-73 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 177 @Portland St. L 71-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 279 @Sacramento St. W 80-76 63%    
  Mon, Jan 19 174 Montana St. W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 @Northern Arizona W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 172 Idaho W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 241 Eastern Washington W 84-76 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 212 @Weber St. W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 163 @Idaho St. L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 279 Sacramento St. W 83-73 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 Portland St. W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 270 Northern Arizona W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 241 @Eastern Washington W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 172 @Idaho L 75-77 43%    
  Mon, Mar 2 205 Montana W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.1 7.1 5.3 2.9 1.1 0.2 26.1 1st
2nd 0.6 4.1 6.7 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.5 2.4 0.3 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.4 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 7.9 10.3 12.5 13.7 13.2 11.4 8.9 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 99.5% 2.9    2.8 0.1
15-3 94.0% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 80.5% 7.1    5.1 1.8 0.2
13-5 53.4% 6.1    3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0
12-6 20.9% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.1% 26.1 17.5 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 56.3% 56.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 47.6% 47.6% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.9% 44.2% 44.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.7% 37.1% 37.1% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.6
14-4 8.9% 32.3% 32.3% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.1 6.0
13-5 11.4% 27.2% 27.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.3
12-6 13.2% 21.7% 21.7% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 10.3
11-7 13.7% 16.5% 16.5% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 11.5
10-8 12.5% 13.4% 13.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 10.8
9-9 10.3% 9.2% 9.2% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.4
8-10 7.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 7.4
7-11 5.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.3
6-12 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.3
5-13 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.8 6.6 3.3 0.6 81.4 0.0%