Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.4 #114
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #122
Pace 59.3 #364
Improvement -6.0 #359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #265 C F+ B D- B-
Defense #32 B+ A- C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.21 #117 +3.9 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #255 0.77 #153 -1.3 #245
Three Pointers 40% #203 0.97 #243 -1.6 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.0 #144
Freethrows 0.25 #318 66% #340 0.17 #342
Second Chance 21.0% #357 1.00 #236 0.21 #355
Turnovers 14.2% #53
Total Offense -3.3 #265

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 1.12 #129 +1.1 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.70 #90 +0.4 #154
Three Pointers 41% #178 0.83 #7 +3.8 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #40 +5.3 #40
Freethrows 0.26 #63 70% #71 0.18 #52
Second Chance 24.5% #19 0.91 #34 0.22 #12
Turnovers 17.0% #142
Total Defense +6.7 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #70 -0.2% #151
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #171 -10.3% #34
Possession Length 18.9 #324 18.4 #326
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.12 #47
Improvement -2.7 #323 -3.2 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 8.7% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 91.2% 93.2% 76.8%
.500 or above in Conference 65.3% 69.2% 38.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.3% 8.7% 5.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 37 - 79 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 217 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 82% +17  1 - 0 +23 +8 B+ D+ B- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 180 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 77% +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B F C- +7 B- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 158 Furman W 70 - 54 73% +10  3 - 0 +13 +3 B F A- +12 A+ A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 310 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 91% +3  4 - 0 +1 +2 A- F F +1 C- A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 120 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 41% +3  5 - 0 +7 +3 B- F A+ +4 B D+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 280 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 83% +18  6 - 0 +14 +5 C+ F+ A+ +12 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 70 Tulsa L 60 - 63 33% -3  6 - 1 +5 -6 D- D+ B- +11 A- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 99 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 55% -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A +1 D A A
 Sat, Dec 13 135 Oakland W 75 - 63 68% +5  7 - 2 +11 -6 C- F A +16 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 138 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 46% +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +10 -1 A- F F +12 A+ B+ D
 Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 14% +2  8 - 3 +10 +0 B- D B +9 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 167 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 75% +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +6 -3 C D+ C +11 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 196 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 79% +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +7 B B C+ -2 D- A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 267 @Evansville W 62 - 48 73% +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +11 -3 B+ F F +16 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 78 Belmont L 65 - 78 46% -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -9 +6 C+ D A+ -17 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 127 @Bradley L 69 - 75 44% -2  11 - 5 4 - 2 -1 +2 D+ D A+ -3 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 138 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 69% -0  11 - 6 4 - 3 -10 -4 F C+ B+ -6 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 17 167 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 53% -2  11 - 7 4 - 4 -8 -18 F F+ B+ +8 A+ C+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 88 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 28% -5  11 - 8 4 - 5 +4 -9 F C- B +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 103 Murray St. W 81 - 76 56% +4  12 - 8 5 - 5 +7 +11 A+ F+ A- -4 A D D+
 Wed, Jan 28 134 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 45% -6  12 - 9 5 - 6 -10 -14 D+ F F +3 D A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 267 Evansville W 68 - 56 87%
 Fri, Feb 6 127 Bradley W 66 - 62 65%
 Mon, Feb 9 103 @Murray St. L 69 - 73 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 78 @Belmont L 64 - 71 25%
 Sun, Feb 15 152 Drake W 66 - 60 71%
 Wed, Feb 18 196 @Indiana St. W 67 - 64 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 134 Southern Illinois W 65 - 60 67%
 Wed, Feb 25 88 Illinois St. L 62 - 63 49%
 Sun, Mar 1 152 @Drake L 63 - 64 50%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 +3 -3 C F+ B +7 B+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.3 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.3 1.8 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 8.0 5.9 0.3 15.2 4th
5th 0.4 7.4 10.1 1.2 0.0 19.2 5th
6th 0.2 5.2 12.3 2.9 0.1 20.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 10.3 3.9 0.1 17.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.4 3.1 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.9 0.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.8 10.7 19.3 24.7 22.4 13.3 4.3 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 44.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.6% 32.5% 32.5% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.4
13-7 4.3% 19.0% 19.0% 12.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.5
12-8 13.3% 13.9% 13.9% 12.3 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 11.4
11-9 22.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.5 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 20.2
10-10 24.7% 7.5% 7.5% 12.7 0.7 1.0 0.2 22.8
9-11 19.3% 4.6% 4.6% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 18.4
8-12 10.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.3
7-13 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 12.6 91.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 36.6 63.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%