Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.4 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +22.8 #9
Pace 61.8 #346
Improvement +3.4 #43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 B- B+ A C- F+
Defense #9 A- B A+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #363 1.46 #3 -2.4 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #25 0.78 #138 +4.1 #26
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.07 #99 +1.9 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #75 +3.6 #75
Freethrows 0.26 #308 79% #13 0.20 #232
Second Chance 39.2% #11 1.07 #141 0.42 #29
Turnovers 12.0% #4
Total Offense +11.0 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.03 #38 +5.0 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #140 0.56 #2 +1.7 #60
Three Pointers 44% #80 0.89 #36 +1.1 #144
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #11 +7.7 #11
Freethrows 0.32 #234 69% #35 0.22 #179
Second Chance 27.9% #88 0.96 #65 0.27 #60
Turnovers 23.2% #3
Total Defense +10.4 #9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #355 -0.9% #90
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.6% #27 -14.3% #5
Possession Length 17.7 #210 18.9 #346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #145 0.07 #4
Improvement +3.9 #20 -0.4 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 3.4% 1.4%
#1 Seed 23.5% 24.6% 12.0%
Top 2 Seed 57.2% 59.1% 37.1%
Top 4 Seed 94.2% 95.0% 86.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.4 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 25.9% 27.5% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.7% 97.9% 96.3%
Sweet Sixteen71.8% 72.2% 67.8%
Elite Eight42.8% 43.3% 37.4%
Final Four23.7% 24.1% 19.7%
Championship Game12.1% 12.4% 8.8%
National Champion6.2% 6.5% 3.6%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 010 - 5
Quad 28 - 018 - 5
Quad 35 - 023 - 6
Quad 45 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 304 Lehigh W 75 - 57 99% +15  1 - 0 +7 -0 D- A- D- +7 A C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Towson W 65 - 48 98% +9  2 - 0 +14 -2 C C D +17 B A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 135 Oakland W 78 - 45 97% +21  3 - 0 +32 +10 C- B A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 25 Auburn W 73 - 72 71% +3  4 - 0 +17 +8 C+ C A- +8 A+ B+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 352 Rider W 91 - 45 100% +25  5 - 0 +30 +15 A+ F+ B +16 A B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 76 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 90% +2  6 - 0 +12 +3 D A+ B +8 B A B+
 Tue, Nov 25 20 Tennessee L 73 - 76 66% +2  6 - 1 +14 +20 A+ B B+ -7 A- C- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 81 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 90% +12  7 - 1 +17 +9 F A+ A+ +10 A+ B D
 Sat, Dec 6 105 Florida St. W 82 - 67 93% +10  8 - 1 +19 +12 A+ D- B- +8 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 337 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100% +22  9 - 1 +28 +7 D+ A+ C- +24 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 220 New Orleans W 99 - 57 99% +25  10 - 1 +35 +23 A+ D A+ +13 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 21 Arkansas W 94 - 85 66% +10  11 - 1 +26 +22 A+ A- A+ +3 B C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 142 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 97% +5  12 - 1 +7 +9 C C+ A+ -0 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 52 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 78% -1  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +13 C+ A A+ +8 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 6 15 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 73% -0  14 - 1 2 - 0 +19 +5 D+ B+ A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 48 @Baylor W 77 - 55 76% +11  15 - 1 3 - 0 +36 +19 C A- A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 57 West Virginia W 77 - 48 91% +16  16 - 1 4 - 0 +36 +20 C+ A+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 77 Arizona St. W 103 - 73 93% +22  17 - 1 5 - 0 +35 +30 A+ A+ A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 15 @Texas Tech L 86 - 90 51% -1  17 - 2 5 - 1 +17 +28 A+ B+ A+ -11 A- F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 45 @TCU W 79 - 70 75% +7  18 - 2 6 - 1 +24 +15 A F A+ +9 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 52 Cincinnati W 73 - 59 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 49 Central Florida W 81 - 67 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 14 @BYU L 73 - 74 49%
 Tue, Feb 10 104 @Utah W 81 - 67 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 87 Kansas St. W 83 - 65 95%
 Mon, Feb 16 9 @Iowa St. L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Arizona W 74 - 73 50%
 Mon, Feb 23 17 @Kansas W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 80 Colorado W 82 - 65 95%
 Wed, Mar 4 48 Baylor W 80 - 67 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 @Oklahoma St. W 82 - 72 81%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +21 +11 B- B+ A +10 A- B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 9.0 11.3 3.9 25.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 16.6 16.7 3.6 40.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 8.8 7.8 0.8 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.6 4.5 0.6 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.5 3.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 7.7 17.3 26.7 26.5 14.9 3.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.9    3.2 0.7
16-2 75.9% 11.3    6.5 4.7 0.2
15-3 33.8% 9.0    2.3 4.7 1.8 0.1
14-4 6.3% 1.7    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.9% 25.9 12.0 10.6 2.8 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.3 2.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 14.9% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.6 7.7 6.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 26.5% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.0 7.8 12.3 5.4 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 26.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.5 4.3 9.6 8.9 3.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.3% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.1 1.0 3.8 6.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.7% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3.9 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.3% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 100.0%
10-8 0.5% 99.1% 6.5% 92.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.0%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.5 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.2 81.4 18.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 67.0 32.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.5 57.4 39.1 3.5