Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 #178
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #174
Pace 65.4 #273
Improvement +2.5 #76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 D+ C D+ B- C-
Defense #115 C+ C C B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.06 #293 -0.9 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #105 0.72 #224 +0.9 #129
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.96 #249 -3.7 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #289 -3.7 #287
Freethrows 0.34 #81 74% #123 0.25 #70
Second Chance 30.3% #191 1.06 #147 0.32 #166
Turnovers 18.2% #292
Total Offense -3.3 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.22 #266 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #39 0.80 #253 -2.8 #347
Three Pointers 43% #117 0.90 #43 +1.5 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.3 #112
Freethrows 0.25 #44 74% #282 0.19 #59
Second Chance 29.9% #150 1.04 #167 0.31 #155
Turnovers 16.7% #162
Total Defense +1.9 #115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #231 -2.6% #21
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #292 -2.0% #145
Possession Length 18.6 #301 17.3 #176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #272 0.16 #151
Improvement -0.1 #183 +2.6 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 35.8% 29.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.6% 79.8% 58.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round34.5% 35.5% 28.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 421 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 56% +16  1 - 0 +18 +9 C+ C B+ +11 B+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 71 Yale L 68 - 97 27% -14  1 - 1 -24 -11 D+ C- F -11 C- D- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 110 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 23% -6  1 - 2 -2 +0 D+ C+ F -3 B+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 28 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 5% -10  1 - 3 +6 -5 F D+ A+ +11 B A+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 339 NJIT W 86 - 70 88% +10  2 - 3 +2 +10 B C- C+ -8 B D- F+
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 93% +16  3 - 3 +15 +7 D+ A+ F +10 B B A-
 Fri, Nov 28 121 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 25% -21  3 - 4 -24 -9 F F+ D+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 265 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 66% -7  3 - 5 -10 -2 F+ D+ C+ -8 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 357 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 82% +9  4 - 5 -4 -8 F B+ F +4 B- C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 347 Air Force W 61 - 56 89% -0  5 - 5 -10 -10 F+ F B+ +0 B+ C+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 97% +12  6 - 5 +10 +8 D A+ D- +3 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 283 Boston University W 82 - 77 79% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +4 B- C- C -9 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 325 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 70% +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 +0 -2 D D- D- +3 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 323 Bucknell W 76 - 55 86% +16  9 - 5 3 - 0 +8 +4 C- B+ F +6 A A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 316 Lafayette W 76 - 50 85% +20  10 - 5 4 - 0 +14 +1 B D+ C- +14 B+ A+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 233 @American L 51 - 65 49% -11  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -15 F F+ F -2 B B F
 Sat, Jan 17 304 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 65% -0  11 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +0 D B+ F+ -3 B- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 325 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 86% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +4 +12 C A+ A -7 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 335 Army W 84 - 56 88% +12  13 - 6 7 - 1 +14 +11 A+ A+ F +6 C A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 283 @Boston University W 58 - 50 60% -2  14 - 6 8 - 1 +4 -5 C F+ F +11 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 317 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 65 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 316 @Lafayette W 71 - 66 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 233 American W 72 - 66 70%
 Mon, Feb 9 323 @Bucknell W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 213 @Colgate L 70 - 71 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 304 Lehigh W 73 - 63 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 335 @Army W 74 - 67 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 317 @Loyola Maryland W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 Colgate W 73 - 68 68%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 -1 -3 D+ C D+ +2 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 7.8 20.3 24.9 16.8 5.5 76.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.5 7.1 4.0 0.3 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 8.5 15.9 24.4 25.2 16.8 5.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.5    5.5
16-2 100.0% 16.8    16.8
15-3 98.9% 24.9    22.2 2.7 0.0
14-4 83.5% 20.3    13.2 6.6 0.6
13-5 49.1% 7.8    3.0 3.7 1.1 0.0
12-6 14.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.6% 76.6 60.9 13.6 2.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.5% 49.2% 49.2% 13.4 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.8
16-2 16.8% 41.5% 41.5% 14.4 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.9 0.1 9.8
15-3 25.2% 38.0% 38.0% 14.8 0.2 2.2 6.2 1.0 15.6
14-4 24.4% 33.9% 33.9% 15.1 0.0 1.0 5.1 2.1 16.1
13-5 15.9% 30.4% 30.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 2.6 2.0 11.1
12-6 8.5% 23.5% 23.5% 15.6 0.0 0.8 1.2 6.5
11-7 2.9% 17.6% 17.6% 15.7 0.2 0.4 2.4
10-8 0.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 14.8 65.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 13.4 7.4 50.1 39.1 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%