Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #270
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #237
Pace 71.1 #121
Improvement +8.9 #1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #322 F+ C- C- C D-
Defense #177 C C- C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #364 1.02 #328 -8.7 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.68 #292 +1.2 #113
Three Pointers 47% #61 0.86 #337 -0.5 #201
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #357 -8.0 #357
Freethrows 0.29 #243 79% #11 0.22 #160
Second Chance 26.4% #296 1.11 #85 0.29 #232
Turnovers 17.5% #254
Total Offense -5.7 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.14 #155 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #254 0.66 #41 +1.8 #56
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.02 #186 -0.5 #198
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #159 +0.7 #156
Freethrows 0.29 #170 73% #202 0.21 #164
Second Chance 33.3% #294 1.02 #133 0.34 #236
Turnovers 16.4% #180
Total Defense -0.3 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #336 0.9% #249
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.2% #354 -2.2% #142
Possession Length 17.9 #228 16.8 #86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #332 0.17 #185
Improvement +5.8 #2 +3.1 #31

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 5.1% 8.4% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 89.9% 65.5%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 84 - 11
Quad 48 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 242 @Eastern Michigan L 49 - 71 33% -8  0 - 1 -23 -22 F D- F -2 A F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 52 @Cincinnati L 64 - 74 5% -6  0 - 2 +3 -1 D+ B D +5 B+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 10 269 Presbyterian L 61 - 63 61% +5  0 - 3 -11 -5 D- C D+ -6 C- F A-
 Mon, Nov 17 77 @Arizona St. L 62 - 75 7% +1  0 - 4 -2 -9 D D- F +6 C+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 180 @South Dakota St. L 58 - 105 24% -28  0 - 5 -45 -16 F F C- -28 F B D
 Tue, Nov 25 239 Samford L 63 - 78 44% -7  0 - 6 -19 -14 F C+ D+ -5 D+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 154 New Mexico St. L 58 - 77 27% -9  0 - 7 -19 -20 F F D- +2 C+ B D+
 Tue, Dec 2 150 @Mercer L 67 - 78 18% -5  0 - 8 -8 -7 D+ F D -0 B+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 153 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 92 19% -16  0 - 9 -20 -15 F B- C+ -1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 184 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 73 45% +5  1 - 9 -1 +8 D- B- A+ -8 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 245 @Georgia Southern L 67 - 90 33% -8  1 - 10 0 - 1 -25 -6 D+ F D -20 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 200 @Appalachian St. W 70 - 63 27% +4  2 - 10 1 - 1 +7 +2 B F F +6 C+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 168 @Marshall L 80 - 84 21% -2  2 - 11 1 - 2 -2 +3 D+ B D+ -4 C- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 236 @Coastal Carolina W 89 - 71 32% -1  3 - 11 2 - 2 +17 +24 A+ A C+ -6 B- F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 200 Appalachian St. L 50 - 52 48% +2  3 - 12 2 - 3 -8 -18 F C B+ +10 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Marshall W 81 - 73 40% -3  4 - 12 3 - 3 +4 +2 F A+ D- +2 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 77 - 57 74% +9  5 - 12 4 - 3 +7 +2 C F+ B +6 B+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 22 259 Southern Miss W 69 - 62 59% +2  6 - 12 5 - 3 -1 -8 F A+ D- +7 B A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 156 Arkansas St. W 82 - 81 38% -3  7 - 12 6 - 3 -2 +10 B+ F B+ -12 F+ B- C+
 Thu, Jan 29 314 @Louisiana W 66 - 65 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 192 @South Alabama L 65 - 72 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 113 Troy L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 310 Northern Illinois W 74 - 68 70%
 Thu, Feb 12 210 @James Madison L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 222 @Old Dominion L 70 - 75 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 245 Georgia Southern W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 210 James Madison W 73 - 72 50%
 Tue, Feb 24 236 Coastal Carolina W 72 - 71 55%
 Fri, Feb 27 222 Old Dominion W 73 - 72 53%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 8 -6 -6 F+ C- C- +0 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 6.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 8.1 3.2 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 6.3 5.8 0.3 12.3 4th
5th 1.2 9.9 1.3 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 5.7 5.2 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.5 8.9 0.8 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 5.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 5.8 0.9 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 4.3 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.7 1.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.7 1.7 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.4 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.2 6.3 14.6 21.9 23.6 17.8 10.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 55.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 46.8% 0.4    0.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 13.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.9% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 3.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.2
12-6 10.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.3 0.4 9.4
11-7 17.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 17.2
10-8 23.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 23.4
9-9 21.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.8
8-10 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.5
7-11 6.3% 6.3
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.6 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%