Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#306
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#334
Pace64.0#318
Improvement+1.0#113

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#322
First Shot-5.5#328
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks-3.0#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#255
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-0.8#247

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#256
First Shot-2.1#245
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#219
Layups/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#287
Freethrows+1.7#78
Improvement+1.8#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 0.6% 1.6% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 23.7% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.2% 11.1% 27.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 92 - 12
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 325 Louisiana W 75-64 67%     1 - 0 -1.7 +5.5 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 40 @Wisconsin L 55-86 3%     1 - 1 -16.1 -9.9 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 15 313 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 65%     1 - 2 -18.0 -14.0 -4.3
  Sat, Nov 22 181 @Indiana St. L 52-70 18%     1 - 3 -16.4 -13.9 -4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 220 Monmouth L 73-80 33%     1 - 4 -10.6 +2.1 -13.0
  Sat, Nov 29 319 @Lafayette L 37-55 43%     1 - 5 -24.4 -32.5 +5.6
  Sun, Nov 30 307 Le Moyne W 96-85 51%     2 - 5 +2.7 +19.4 -16.2
  Wed, Dec 3 275 @Evansville L 52-64 31%     2 - 6 -15.0 -18.2 +2.7
  Tue, Dec 9 160 South Dakota St. L 64-68 31%     2 - 7 -6.9 -2.5 -4.8
  Sun, Dec 14 228 @Campbell L 64-69 24%     2 - 8 -5.9 -8.3 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 20 106 Miami (OH) L 67-76 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 216 @Buffalo L 67-75 23%    
  Tue, Jan 6 226 Eastern Michigan L 66-67 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 @Massachusetts L 66-78 14%    
  Tue, Jan 13 65 @Akron L 68-88 4%    
  Fri, Jan 16 175 Ohio L 71-75 36%    
  Tue, Jan 20 323 @Central Michigan L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 327 Northern Illinois W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 167 @Toledo L 68-78 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 @Bowling Green L 62-76 11%    
  Wed, Feb 11 216 Buffalo L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 131 Kent St. L 73-80 27%    
  Tue, Feb 17 175 @Ohio L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 65 Akron L 71-85 11%    
  Tue, Feb 24 152 Massachusetts L 69-75 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 327 @Northern Illinois L 70-71 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 253 @Western Michigan L 67-73 30%    
  Fri, Mar 6 323 Central Michigan W 71-66 66%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.6 5.2 1.1 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.8 2.4 0.2 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.9 7.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 16.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.4 7.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 17.7 12th
13th 0.5 2.2 4.7 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 14.6 13th
Total 0.5 2.3 6.1 11.1 14.8 16.6 15.9 12.7 8.9 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0
14-4 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 5.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.7
8-10 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
7-11 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 16.6% 16.6
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 11.1% 11.1
2-16 6.1% 6.1
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%