Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #225
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #251
Pace 71.0 #124
Improvement +1.7 #107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 C- D+ C+ C- D
Defense #201 C C D+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.11 #247 -3.2 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.66 #318 +1.2 #113
Three Pointers 39% #229 1.06 #111 -0.2 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #245 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 0.28 #255 72% #185 0.20 #236
Second Chance 24.7% #329 1.06 #151 0.26 #294
Turnovers 15.9% #146
Total Offense -2.7 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.26 #300 -6.5 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.68 #63 +0.9 #119
Three Pointers 34% #347 0.86 #22 +6.2 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.6 #158
Freethrows 0.34 #292 74% #283 0.25 #305
Second Chance 29.9% #151 1.10 #260 0.33 #206
Turnovers 14.7% #289
Total Defense -0.9 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #308 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #215 -2.3% #140
Possession Length 17.2 #158 15.0 #1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #229 0.21 #315
Improvement -0.9 #235 +2.6 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 1.7% 3.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 72.5% 36.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round2.2% 3.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 48 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 93 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 12% +3  0 - 1 -6 -4 C+ C- F -1 C A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 296 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 75% +1  1 - 1 -8 -6 F D- B- -1 A- F+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 65 @George Washington L 73 - 96 9% -11  1 - 2 -11 -0 D C F+ -10 C+ C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 82 @Xavier L 69 - 99 11% -20  1 - 3 -20 -3 D- C C- -15 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 355 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 89% +18  2 - 3 +15 +11 C D- A +6 B B- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 201 @Drexel L 71 - 75 34% -1  2 - 4 -3 +6 C+ C- B- -9 C- F+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Villanova L 75 - 89 4% -6  2 - 5 +3 +14 B B+ A -12 D- C- F+
 Sun, Nov 30 135 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 22% -7  2 - 6 -8 -4 D+ F+ D+ -3 C- A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 117 @Richmond L 77 - 86 19% -4  2 - 7 -3 +1 D D- A+ -3 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 86 @George Mason L 61 - 73 11% -10  2 - 8 -2 -9 D B- F +7 A- B+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 194 James Madison W 77 - 68 56% +6  3 - 8 1 - 0 +4 +3 C- F B +1 C B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 234 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 64% -1  3 - 9 1 - 1 -9 -4 C+ C F -6 C+ A F
 Sun, Dec 28 106 @Maryland L 58 - 73 15% -18  3 - 10 -8 -9 F D+ D +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 197 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 57% -13  3 - 11 1 - 2 -13 +3 A- F B -17 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 246 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 65% -12  3 - 12 1 - 3 -15 -4 F D A+ -9 D- C- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 234 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 41% +7  4 - 12 2 - 3 +3 -0 C B- F +3 B C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @James Madison L 69 - 70 33% +9  4 - 13 2 - 4 -0 -5 F D B- +4 D+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 246 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 43% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -5 +7 B D B+ -11 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 34% +10  5 - 14 3 - 5 +3 +10 A+ D+ C- -7 C+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 120 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 38% +1  5 - 15 3 - 6 -6 -8 D- F B +2 A+ C- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 158 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 26% +5  6 - 15 4 - 6 +7 +0 D C- B- +7 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 270 @Texas St. L 71 - 72 49%
 Wed, Feb 4 361 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 70 92%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 Ohio W 78 - 75 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 166 Marshall L 76 - 77 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 275 Georgia St. W 77 - 71 69%
 Mon, Feb 16 310 Louisiana W 72 - 64 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 266 @Southern Miss L 73 - 74 46%
 Tue, Feb 24 166 @Marshall L 74 - 80 28%
 Fri, Feb 27 275 @Georgia St. L 73 - 74 50%
Totals 11 - 19 9 - 9 -4 -3 C- D+ C+ -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.4 0.6 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.6 2.5 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 1.1 7.2 0.7 9.0 5th
6th 4.9 4.5 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.5 11.6 1.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 3.6 7.3 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.4 8.4 1.7 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 3.1 8.4 0.2 11.7 10th
11th 0.6 6.6 2.3 9.5 11th
12th 0.2 2.9 4.8 0.2 8.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.8 3.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.5 15.7 23.5 26.7 18.2 7.9 1.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.4% 20.1% 20.1% 14.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
11-7 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 7.2
10-8 18.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.1 0.7 17.4
9-9 26.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 26.1
8-10 23.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.3
7-11 15.7% 15.7
6-12 5.5% 5.5
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.6 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.1 32.4 21.6 45.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%