Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#216
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#113
Pace67.5#234
Improvement-4.5#356

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#142
First Shot+2.0#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#257
Layup/Dunks-4.3#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#120
Freethrows+4.5#10
Improvement-2.9#352

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#315
First Shot-5.2#335
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#115
Layups/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#321
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-1.6#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 83.2% 91.6% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 54.4% 29.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 2.1% 7.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 201 Southern Miss W 85-79 59%     1 - 0 +0.2 +14.2 -13.6
  Fri, Nov 7 276 Green Bay W 83-76 71%     2 - 0 -2.1 +11.8 -13.3
  Tue, Nov 11 113 @DePaul W 66-53 18%     3 - 0 +19.4 +0.2 +19.6
  Tue, Nov 18 186 Vermont W 94-90 55%     4 - 0 -0.7 +12.3 -13.2
  Mon, Nov 24 331 VMI W 78-70 75%     5 - 0 -2.4 +2.9 -4.9
  Wed, Nov 26 304 Bucknell W 73-71 67%     6 - 0 -5.9 +8.9 -14.5
  Sat, Nov 29 340 @Canisius W 71-53 68%     7 - 0 +9.8 +2.6 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 111 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 36%     7 - 1 -7.6 -0.4 -7.6
  Tue, Dec 9 285 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 52%     8 - 1 +0.2 +12.1 -11.7
  Sun, Dec 14 280 @East Carolina L 70-73 51%     8 - 2 -6.5 -1.0 -5.5
  Sat, Dec 20 253 @Western Michigan L 76-77 46%    
  Tue, Dec 30 327 @Northern Illinois W 79-76 63%    
  Sat, Jan 3 306 Ball St. W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 175 @Ohio L 77-82 30%    
  Tue, Jan 13 131 Kent St. L 82-84 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 106 @Miami (OH) L 73-83 17%    
  Tue, Jan 20 65 Akron L 80-89 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 152 Massachusetts L 78-79 47%    
  Tue, Jan 27 124 @Bowling Green L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 175 Ohio W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Feb 3 106 Miami (OH) L 76-80 35%    
  Wed, Feb 11 306 @Ball St. W 72-70 56%    
  Tue, Feb 17 327 Northern Illinois W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 152 @Massachusetts L 75-82 27%    
  Tue, Feb 24 65 @Akron L 77-92 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 323 Central Michigan W 79-70 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 226 Eastern Michigan W 74-71 62%    
  Fri, Mar 6 167 @Toledo L 76-82 30%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.4 3.4 0.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.2 6.0 1.3 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.8 1.9 0.1 12.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.7 5.2 2.1 0.2 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.0 8.5 12.4 14.8 15.4 13.8 11.2 7.5 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 88.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 70.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 22.2% 22.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.0% 9.1% 9.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.4% 8.2% 8.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 4.4% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
11-7 7.5% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.2
10-8 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0
9-9 13.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.6
8-10 15.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.3
7-11 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 12.4% 12.4
5-13 8.5% 8.5
4-14 5.0% 5.0
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 98.6 0.0%