Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#143
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#133
Pace68.8#206
Improvement-1.9#306

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#145
First Shot+1.5#135
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#230
Layup/Dunks+0.2#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#173
Freethrows+2.6#47
Improvement+0.9#103

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot+0.7#140
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks+4.3#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#228
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement-2.8#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 25.2% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 91.0% 94.7% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 96.3% 87.0%
Conference Champion 31.9% 40.3% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.8% 25.2% 15.5%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 35 - 58 - 7
Quad 411 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 131 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 36%     1 - 0 +10.8 +11.5 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 7 151 @Furman W 64-61 41%     2 - 0 +6.6 -6.5 +13.1
  Fri, Nov 14 134 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 36%     2 - 1 -6.3 -4.0 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 221 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 57%     2 - 2 -9.6 +7.6 -16.8
  Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 13%     3 - 2 +14.4 +17.7 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 37 @USC L 106-107 3OT 10%     3 - 3 +14.4 +7.8 +6.9
  Mon, Nov 24 167 Toledo L 68-75 57%     3 - 4 -7.7 -7.1 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 363 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 93%     4 - 4 -5.5 -7.9 +1.9
  Mon, Dec 1 314 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 89%     4 - 5 -16.0 -6.6 -8.7
  Sun, Dec 14 119 @UAB W 86-85 31%     5 - 5 +7.2 +18.0 -10.8
  Sat, Dec 20 161 Marshall W 77-73 65%    
  Wed, Dec 31 240 Texas St. W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 179 South Alabama W 72-67 69%    
  Wed, Jan 7 153 @Arkansas St. L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 325 @Louisiana W 71-63 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 201 Southern Miss W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 153 Arkansas St. W 80-76 63%    
  Wed, Jan 21 215 @Old Dominion W 75-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 230 @Georgia Southern W 79-77 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 182 James Madison W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 231 Appalachian St. W 71-63 77%    
  Wed, Feb 4 334 @Georgia St. W 77-68 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 240 @Texas St. W 71-68 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 201 @Southern Miss W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 179 @South Alabama L 69-70 48%    
  Tue, Feb 24 325 Louisiana W 74-60 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 358 Louisiana Monroe W 84-66 95%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.3 9.4 6.1 2.9 0.6 31.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.6 7.7 5.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.2 6.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.2 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.7 6.1 9.1 12.5 14.5 16.0 14.2 10.8 6.3 2.9 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.9% 2.9    2.9 0.0
16-2 97.7% 6.1    5.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 87.1% 9.4    7.0 2.3 0.2
14-4 58.4% 8.3    3.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.7% 4.0    0.9 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.8% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 20.9 7.9 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 58.6% 58.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
17-1 2.9% 51.1% 51.1% 12.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4
16-2 6.3% 45.4% 45.4% 12.6 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.4
15-3 10.8% 40.3% 40.3% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.5
14-4 14.2% 32.6% 32.6% 13.3 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.6 0.2 9.6
13-5 16.0% 24.4% 24.4% 13.6 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.1
12-6 14.5% 15.8% 15.8% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 12.2
11-7 12.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.4
10-8 9.1% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.6
9-9 6.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.0
8-10 3.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.5 6.3 1.5 0.1 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.1 0.9 2.7 7.1 65.2 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%