Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.5 #88
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #95
Pace 66.2 #252
Improvement +1.1 #138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 C+ C+ C+ C- C
Defense #67 B B C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.28 #65 +0.8 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.79 #128 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 43% #145 1.03 #171 +1.2 #138
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.6 #108
Freethrows 0.30 #200 70% #246 0.21 #212
Second Chance 29.2% #221 1.17 #40 0.34 #122
Turnovers 15.8% #137
Total Offense +2.3 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.14 #150 +1.6 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.66 #36 -1.4 #293
Three Pointers 36% #308 0.96 #102 +3.5 #52
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #63 +3.8 #63
Freethrows 0.31 #225 68% #30 0.22 #175
Second Chance 25.8% #35 1.00 #120 0.26 #48
Turnovers 16.3% #189
Total Defense +4.1 #67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #225 -2.1% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #85 -5.6% #74
Possession Length 18.3 #270 17.1 #129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.14 #80
Improvement -0.8 #228 +1.9 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 24.1% 19.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.6% 96.6%
Conference Champion 17.8% 21.5% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.0% 24.1% 19.5%
Second Round3.7% 4.1% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 310 - 513 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 214 @Ohio L 68 - 72 74% -2  0 - 1 -4 -5 D+ F C +0 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 174 Cornell W 76 - 65 84% +4  1 - 1 +7 -8 D- C- F +15 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 14 44 USC L 67 - 87 31% -12  1 - 2 -8 +2 D B+ C+ -10 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 251 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 79% +4  2 - 2 +0 +11 C- F+ A+ -11 D- C F
 Sun, Nov 23 236 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 89% +30  3 - 2 +45 +13 A+ C- A- +28 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 165 Charlotte W 79 - 69 75% +10  4 - 2 +10 +8 B- C+ A- +2 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 158 Furman W 72 - 65 73% +4  5 - 2 +7 +3 C A+ C +4 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 263 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 91% +9  6 - 2 +2 +7 B+ A- D+ -5 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 358 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 98% +30  7 - 2 +24 +18 A B B- +8 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 38 Utah St. L 78 - 83 25% -6  7 - 3 +8 +14 A+ A+ F+ -6 D D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 134 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 57% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +12 +8 B- A C- +4 C C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 196 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 86% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +13 A- F+ A+ +3 C+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 152 @Drake W 73 - 56 61% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +20 +6 A+ F F +15 A+ B- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 267 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +17 -3 C F A- +20 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 167 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 65% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -4 +7 C- B- B+ -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 138 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 78% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -6 -13 F D+ B +7 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 196 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 71% -6  11 - 6 4 - 3 -4 +19 A B- B+ -23 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 127 Bradley W 88 - 62 76% +13  12 - 6 5 - 3 +25 +19 A- A- A+ +7 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 114 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 72% +5  13 - 6 6 - 3 +5 -4 D+ B+ F +9 A+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 78 @Belmont L 69 - 80 35% -6  13 - 7 6 - 4 -1 -0 D- B+ D -1 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 103 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 45% +3  14 - 7 7 - 4 +13 -1 B- C D+ +13 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Feb 3 134 Southern Illinois W 74 - 66 77%
 Fri, Feb 6 152 Drake W 75 - 66 81%
 Mon, Feb 9 267 @Evansville W 74 - 65 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 167 Valparaiso W 74 - 64 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 138 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 69 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 103 Murray St. W 82 - 77 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 127 @Bradley W 73 - 72 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 114 @Northern Iowa W 63 - 62 51%
 Sun, Mar 1 78 Belmont W 77 - 75 58%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 7 +6 +2 C+ C+ C+ +4 B B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.2 8.5 3.4 17.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 13.2 15.8 5.7 0.3 37.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.6 10.3 2.1 0.0 23.4 3rd
4th 0.3 4.1 6.0 1.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.7 1.0 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 9.7 19.3 25.2 23.1 14.2 3.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.9% 3.4    2.5 0.9
15-5 59.7% 8.5    3.7 4.3 0.5
14-6 22.5% 5.2    0.8 2.7 1.4 0.2
13-7 2.7% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 7.1 8.0 2.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.8% 33.6% 33.6% 11.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.5
15-5 14.2% 31.5% 31.4% 0.0% 11.7 1.4 2.9 0.2 9.8 0.1%
14-6 23.1% 26.9% 26.9% 12.0 0.8 4.9 0.6 0.0 16.9
13-7 25.2% 22.9% 22.9% 12.1 0.3 4.3 1.1 0.0 19.5
12-8 19.3% 18.1% 18.1% 12.3 0.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 15.8
11-9 9.7% 14.3% 14.3% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 8.3
10-10 3.6% 10.2% 10.2% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.3
9-11 1.0% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 12.0 77.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 11.3 1.6 69.0 29.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%