Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#90
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#103
Pace66.7#258
Improvement+3.7#17

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#80
First Shot+3.8#79
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+4.6#1

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#110
First Shot+0.6#146
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#101
Layups/Dunks-2.6#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#119
Freethrows+1.2#112
Improvement-0.9#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 21.5% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 96.2% 98.5% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 94.7% 83.4%
Conference Champion 25.2% 33.4% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round18.7% 21.4% 15.7%
Second Round3.7% 4.6% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 39 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 175 @Ohio L 68-72 65%     0 - 1 -2.0 -5.3 +3.3
  Sun, Nov 9 164 Cornell W 76-65 80%     1 - 1 +7.9 -5.3 +12.8
  Fri, Nov 14 37 USC L 67-87 26%     1 - 2 -7.6 +0.7 -8.6
  Sun, Nov 16 277 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 80%     2 - 2 -1.2 +8.9 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 23 244 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 89%     3 - 2 +44.3 +13.7 +27.5
  Thu, Nov 27 194 Charlotte W 79-69 78%     4 - 2 +7.6 +9.2 -0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 151 Furman W 72-65 69%     5 - 2 +7.6 +1.9 +6.0
  Wed, Dec 3 260 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 90%     6 - 2 +2.6 +8.7 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 6 338 Chicago St. W 95-53 96%     7 - 2 +28.1 +18.7 +11.2
  Sat, Dec 13 46 Utah St. L 78-83 30%     7 - 3 +6.3 +13.5 -7.5
  Thu, Dec 18 129 @Southern Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Sun, Dec 21 181 Indiana St. W 79-69 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 136 @Drake W 72-71 55%    
  Thu, Jan 1 275 Evansville W 78-63 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 213 @Valparaiso W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 189 Illinois-Chicago W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Jan 14 181 @Indiana St. W 76-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 116 Bradley W 75-69 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 93 Northern Iowa W 67-64 62%    
  Sun, Jan 25 85 @Belmont L 75-79 36%    
  Wed, Jan 28 99 @Murray St. L 79-81 42%    
  Tue, Feb 3 129 Southern Illinois W 78-71 73%    
  Fri, Feb 6 136 Drake W 75-68 74%    
  Mon, Feb 9 275 @Evansville W 75-66 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 213 Valparaiso W 76-64 86%    
  Sun, Feb 15 189 @Illinois-Chicago W 77-72 66%    
  Wed, Feb 18 99 Murray St. W 82-78 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 116 @Bradley L 71-72 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 93 @Northern Iowa L 64-67 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 85 Belmont W 78-76 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.8 7.0 5.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 25.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.1 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.6 4.0 0.9 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.8 7.5 10.2 12.5 14.1 14.0 12.0 9.3 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 98.7% 2.9    2.7 0.1
17-3 92.4% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 75.0% 7.0    4.7 2.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 48.6% 5.8    2.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.7% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 16.6 6.5 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.7% 50.9% 15.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.1%
19-1 1.0% 53.8% 46.5% 7.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 13.7%
18-2 2.9% 41.4% 40.1% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.7 2.3%
17-3 5.7% 38.1% 37.7% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 3.5 0.7%
16-4 9.3% 30.5% 30.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 0.1%
15-5 12.0% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.0 0.1%
14-6 14.0% 20.5% 20.4% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 11.2 0.0%
13-7 14.1% 17.1% 17.1% 12.3 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 11.7
12-8 12.5% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.9
11-9 10.2% 10.8% 10.8% 12.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.1
10-10 7.5% 7.8% 7.8% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9
9-11 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
8-12 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
7-13 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.8% 18.6% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 81.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.4 3.4 6.9 31.0 20.7 10.3 6.9 6.9 13.8