Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #183
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #188
Pace 62.8 #332
Improvement +3.8 #34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #190 C C+ C- C+ D+
Defense #201 C- C- C D A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.34 #25 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #114 0.64 #335 -0.3 #186
Three Pointers 44% #120 0.94 #271 +0.0 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #213 -1.0 #211
Freethrows 0.35 #52 68% #317 0.23 #126
Second Chance 32.8% #119 1.08 #133 0.35 #108
Turnovers 17.3% #245
Total Offense -0.9 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #344 1.34 #350 +2.0 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.73 #133 -3.3 #354
Three Pointers 39% #231 1.07 #255 -0.2 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #224 -1.5 #224
Freethrows 0.35 #310 73% #236 0.25 #316
Second Chance 31.4% #223 1.09 #253 0.34 #245
Turnovers 16.9% #150
Total Defense -0.9 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #293 -3.6% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.4% #180 6.7% #306
Possession Length 18.5 #293 17.9 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #241 0.17 #172
Improvement +3.2 #36 +0.6 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.0% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 50.8% 61.8% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 87.9% 64.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.4% 5.0% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 411 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 156 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 54% +7  0 - 1 -4 -1 C C D+ -3 C+ D+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 157 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 32% -7  0 - 2 -15 -17 F F F +2 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 63% -2  1 - 2 +2 +9 C+ D+ A+ -6 B+ F A
 Mon, Nov 24 227 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 69% +1  1 - 3 -21 -8 F B B- -15 F C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 70 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 12% -14  1 - 4 -13 +5 A D+ F -20 F B F+
 Fri, Dec 12 83 @Xavier L 57 - 75 14% -7  1 - 5 -8 -5 D- D D- -5 C- C D
 Tue, Dec 16 331 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 86% +2  2 - 5 -13 -10 D+ F C- -3 B- C C-
 Tue, Dec 23 250 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 72% +5  3 - 5 -3 -4 F+ B A- +1 B A F
 Mon, Dec 29 278 @Delaware W 61 - 43 58% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +14 -3 D+ F+ D +20 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 266 UTEP W 79 - 55 75% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +15 +20 B- A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 154 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 54% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +4 +11 B A+ D- -7 D C B
 Wed, Jan 7 153 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 31% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -7 +3 C- B- D -9 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 190 Florida International W 79 - 71 62% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +3 +3 C A+ D +0 A+ C- C
 Wed, Jan 14 166 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 34% -6  7 - 7 4 - 2 -13 +6 D A+ C- -19 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 142 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 29% -0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +1 +11 B B C+ -9 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 154 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 31% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +12 +18 A+ D D -5 A- D F
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @UTEP W 62 - 57 54% -2  9 - 8 6 - 3 +2 -6 F+ C+ F +8 C A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 115 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 42% -4  9 - 9 6 - 4 -9 -1 C+ A- C -8 D B B
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Jacksonville St. W 68 - 65 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 94 @Liberty L 65 - 75 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 209 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 62 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 278 Delaware W 70 - 62 78%
 Wed, Feb 18 153 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @Florida International L 73 - 76 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 209 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 65 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 77 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 166 Western Kentucky W 73 - 71 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 142 Middle Tennessee W 68 - 67 50%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2 -1 C C+ C- -1 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 8.8 5.0 0.6 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.3 6.7 0.8 0.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.6 6.8 8.1 1.2 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 8.5 2.1 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.7 3.0 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.7 13.3 20.6 22.7 18.9 11.2 4.4 1.1 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 70.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 31.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.1% 11.2% 11.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 4.4% 10.9% 10.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.9
13-7 11.2% 9.2% 9.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.1
12-8 18.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 17.7
11-9 22.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 21.8
10-10 20.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 20.1
9-11 13.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 13.1
8-12 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 14.4 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%