Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#193
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#171
Pace69.6#185
Improvement-2.2#318

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#265
First Shot-3.3#270
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#208
Layup/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#154
Freethrows-2.6#314
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#117
First Shot-2.0#240
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#9
Layups/Dunks-3.2#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#268
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement-2.7#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 15.7% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 78.6% 83.9% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 87.7% 80.7%
Conference Champion 18.3% 19.7% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.5%
First Round14.2% 15.3% 11.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 324 @Air Force W 74-54 67%     1 - 0 +13.3 -1.6 +14.5
  Tue, Nov 11 91 @Wyoming L 65-79 15%     1 - 1 -5.2 -10.0 +6.0
  Sat, Nov 15 284 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 56%     2 - 1 +2.5 -9.5 +11.7
  Tue, Nov 18 60 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +5.2 +0.5 +4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 83 @Tulsa L 75-84 13%     2 - 3 +1.1 +6.2 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 25 327 Northern Illinois W 77-59 84%     3 - 3 +5.1 +3.2 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 130 @Kent St. L 84-96 26%     3 - 4 -7.2 +7.5 -14.2
  Sun, Dec 7 206 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-63 42%     3 - 5 -13.1 -20.4 +7.1
  Fri, Dec 12 123 East Tennessee St. W 76-75 43%     4 - 5 +0.9 +3.1 -2.2
  Sun, Dec 21 347 @UMKC W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Jan 1 344 North Florida W 84-72 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 305 Jacksonville W 74-65 80%    
  Thu, Jan 8 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @Stetson W 74-67 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 259 Eastern Kentucky W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 @Lipscomb L 69-75 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 186 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 346 Stetson W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 259 @Eastern Kentucky W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 314 @West Georgia W 73-69 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 142 Lipscomb L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 209 North Alabama W 71-67 65%    
  Wed, Feb 11 203 @Queens L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 294 Bellarmine W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 344 @North Florida W 81-75 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 @Jacksonville W 71-68 60%    
  Wed, Feb 25 281 Central Arkansas W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 @Bellarmine W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 5.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.4 6.5 4.5 1.2 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.1 0.3 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.4 9.7 12.5 14.2 15.0 13.2 10.0 6.5 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 81.2% 5.3    3.8 1.3 0.1
14-4 49.3% 4.9    2.4 2.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 11.2 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 54.8% 54.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 38.2% 38.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
16-2 3.4% 38.7% 38.7% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 2.1
15-3 6.5% 30.3% 30.3% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.0% 25.7% 25.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.1 7.4
13-5 13.2% 20.4% 20.4% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 10.5
12-6 15.0% 13.6% 13.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 13.0
11-7 14.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.8 12.6
10-8 12.5% 8.8% 8.8% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 11.4
9-9 9.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 9.2
8-10 6.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.2
7-11 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-13 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 5.9 3.3 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 5.9 85.3 8.8