Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.9 #172
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #137
Pace 71.3 #114
Improvement +0.5 #156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 D+ C C+ C- C
Defense #121 C- B+ B+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.04 #309 -2.1 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.75 #181 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 40% #208 0.95 #273 -2.0 #258
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #302 -3.9 #302
Freethrows 0.28 #259 71% #224 0.20 #254
Second Chance 29.3% #222 1.14 #67 0.33 #141
Turnovers 15.8% #138
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.25 #296 -1.5 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.76 #192 -0.2 #199
Three Pointers 41% #181 1.04 #229 -0.7 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #262 -2.3 #261
Freethrows 0.29 #168 67% #22 0.20 #104
Second Chance 30.8% #190 0.76 #3 0.23 #20
Turnovers 19.4% #41
Total Defense +1.5 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #199 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.6% #310 4.7% #270
Possession Length 17.0 #136 16.8 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #88 0.20 #274
Improvement +3.0 #42 -2.5 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 28.2% 22.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 65.8% 72.4% 47.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round26.5% 28.2% 22.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 418 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 347 @Air Force W 74 - 54 78% +10  1 - 0 +11 -2 C+ D F +12 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 113 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 25% -5  1 - 1 -8 -11 F C F +5 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 309 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 68% +3  2 - 1 +0 -12 F C- F+ +12 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 64 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 12% -7  2 - 2 +5 +0 D- B- C +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 71 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 13% +2  2 - 3 +2 +5 B- C- B+ -4 F+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 308 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 84% +7  3 - 3 +6 +6 A- C+ B +2 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 144 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 32% -3  3 - 4 -8 +9 A F C -16 F C- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 189 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 43% -0  3 - 5 -12 -20 F D- C +8 A- F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 140 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 53% +6  4 - 5 -1 +2 C D- A- -3 D+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 351 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +5 F A+ A -4 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 281 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 80% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D A- -2 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 236 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 51% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +8 D+ A+ B- +2 C- B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 325 @Stetson W 81 - 69 72% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +4 F+ B- A+ +1 C+ D B-
 Thu, Jan 15 258 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 77% +1  9 - 5 5 - 0 -7 +2 D- A- C- -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 174 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 39% -2  9 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +2 D+ C+ D+ -4 D- A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 236 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 73% +12  10 - 6 6 - 1 +14 +8 C- B A +7 C+ B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 325 Stetson W 73 - 65 87% +0  11 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -3 F A+ D -1 C A- C
 Wed, Jan 28 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 56% +10  12 - 6 8 - 1 +5 +8 B+ C+ F -3 B A F
 Sat, Jan 31 327 @West Georgia W 78 - 72 73%
 Wed, Feb 4 174 Lipscomb W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 North Alabama W 79 - 66 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 203 @Queens L 79 - 80 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 306 Bellarmine W 83 - 72 84%
 Thu, Feb 19 351 @North Florida W 88 - 79 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 281 @Jacksonville W 70 - 67 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 220 Central Arkansas W 77 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 @Bellarmine W 80 - 75 66%
Totals 18 - 9 14 - 4 -1 -2 D+ C C+ +1 C- B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.0 16.5 23.2 16.4 5.4 65.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.4 8.9 7.9 1.3 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.6 0.5 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.2 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.4 16.7 24.8 24.6 16.4 5.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.4    5.4
16-2 100.0% 16.4    16.0 0.4
15-3 94.6% 23.2    17.9 5.1 0.3
14-4 66.5% 16.5    6.9 7.6 1.9 0.1
13-5 23.9% 4.0    0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3
12-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.8% 65.8 46.9 15.0 3.4 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.4% 39.8% 39.8% 13.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2
16-2 16.4% 35.2% 35.2% 13.8 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.9 0.0 10.6
15-3 24.6% 29.5% 29.5% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.8 0.1 17.3
14-4 24.8% 24.5% 24.5% 14.6 0.2 2.2 3.4 0.3 18.7
13-5 16.7% 21.7% 21.7% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.3 13.1
12-6 8.4% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 7.1
11-7 3.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.7
10-8 0.7% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 14.3 73.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 13.0 21.8 61.5 16.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%