Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #194
Pace 61.9 #345
Improvement -3.9 #325

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #158 C+ D- B- D+ C
Defense #255 C- B- F+ C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.26 #74 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.79 #132 -0.7 #216
Three Pointers 47% #67 1.03 #167 +3.3 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #110 +2.5 #111
Freethrows 0.26 #298 75% #94 0.20 #261
Second Chance 23.4% #344 0.98 #258 0.23 #342
Turnovers 15.0% #96
Total Offense +0.1 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.23 #273 +0.6 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #76 0.70 #87 -0.6 #229
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.12 #310 -2.0 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #246 -2.0 #249
Freethrows 0.32 #253 74% #275 0.24 #273
Second Chance 27.3% #68 1.04 #177 0.28 #96
Turnovers 12.2% #356
Total Defense -2.6 #255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #183 -1.3% #72
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #99 5.2% #275
Possession Length 18.9 #319 17.6 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.07 #364 0.13 #58
Improvement -4.9 #356 +1.0 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 44.8% 37.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 78.3% 88.6% 52.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 4.4% 7.3%
First Round40.3% 42.8% 34.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 420 - 521 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 264 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 51% -3  1 - 0 +2 +7 D+ C- A- -5 F A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 15 256 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 49% +0  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ F C- -0 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 185 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 36% -0  2 - 1 -3 +11 A+ D C+ -14 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 94 Liberty L 73 - 79 22% -10  2 - 2 -0 +3 C+ D+ C+ -4 D- B C-
 Tue, Nov 25 109 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 28% -7  2 - 3 -11 +2 C- B C- -14 D D D
 Wed, Nov 26 212 Princeton W 79 - 74 52% +7  3 - 3 +2 +13 A- B C+ -11 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 71 Yale L 74 - 77 24% -3  3 - 4 +2 +10 A+ D- D -8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 182 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 36% -16  3 - 5 -21 -8 D F C -16 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 281 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 56% +1  4 - 5 +5 +0 B F D+ +6 B A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 206 Merrimack W 66 - 59 63% +7  5 - 5 +1 +5 C- D- A+ -2 B- D+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 173 Siena W 83 - 69 56% +12  6 - 5 +10 +9 B+ C A+ +1 B A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 225 Iona L 78 - 83 66% -0  6 - 6 -12 +6 C+ F+ A+ -18 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 212 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 41% -4  6 - 7 -6 +0 D B- C- -7 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 320 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 65% +9  7 - 7 1 - 0 +12 +13 A- C+ B +1 D+ C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 362 Binghamton W 60 - 59 93% -1  8 - 7 2 - 0 -18 -14 D- F C- -4 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 336 Maine W 67 - 62 86% -1  9 - 7 3 - 0 -9 +1 B- F A -10 B+ C F
 Mon, Jan 19 309 @Albany L 68 - 75 62% -3  9 - 8 3 - 1 -13 -6 C F F -7 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 319 @Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 65% +5  10 - 8 4 - 1 +3 +4 B- F B+ -1 B D- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 344 @Bryant W 62 - 52 73% +8  11 - 8 5 - 1 +1 +7 D+ D+ B -2 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 258 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 339 NJIT W 76 - 64 88%
 Thu, Feb 5 336 @Maine W 67 - 61 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 320 New Hampshire W 74 - 64 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Binghamton W 74 - 63 84%
 Sat, Feb 14 344 Bryant W 73 - 61 87%
 Thu, Feb 19 258 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 339 @NJIT W 73 - 67 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 319 Umass Lowell W 78 - 68 82%
 Tue, Mar 3 309 Albany W 75 - 66 80%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 3 -3 +0 C+ D- B- -3 C- B- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 5.0 16.7 25.5 22.0 8.7 78.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 7.2 5.4 1.4 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.5 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 12.7 22.1 26.9 22.0 8.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 8.7    8.7
14-2 100.0% 22.0    21.5 0.5
13-3 94.7% 25.5    21.8 3.7 0.0
12-4 75.6% 16.7    10.5 5.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 39.5% 5.0    1.3 2.7 0.9 0.1
10-6 7.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 78.3% 78.3 63.8 12.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 8.7% 54.8% 54.8% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.6 3.9
14-2 22.0% 50.7% 50.7% 14.9 0.2 2.6 6.9 1.5 10.9
13-3 26.9% 44.3% 44.3% 15.4 0.0 0.7 6.1 5.1 15.0
12-4 22.1% 39.0% 39.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.7 13.5
11-5 12.7% 34.1% 34.1% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.4 8.3
10-6 5.4% 26.8% 26.8% 15.9 0.1 1.3 4.0
9-7 1.8% 23.0% 23.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.4
8-8 0.4% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.1 0.3
7-9 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 42.7% 42.7% 0.0% 15.2 57.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 13.8 1.9 28.6 57.4 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%