Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.8 #145
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #172
Pace 70.2 #142
Improvement -5.0 #347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C+ D+ C+ C+ B+
Defense #139 C B- B D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #3 1.13 #204 +6.1 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #280 0.80 #112 -1.4 #248
Three Pointers 34% #318 1.09 #81 -2.5 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #117 +2.3 #115
Freethrows 0.32 #136 72% #192 0.23 #143
Second Chance 29.6% #217 0.88 #348 0.26 #296
Turnovers 15.5% #117
Total Offense +0.1 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #186 1.15 #158 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #310 0.77 #206 +1.6 #70
Three Pointers 45% #64 0.98 #134 -1.4 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #171 +0.3 #171
Freethrows 0.32 #251 75% #310 0.24 #278
Second Chance 27.6% #81 1.03 #145 0.28 #94
Turnovers 18.7% #58
Total Defense +0.7 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #27 1.2% #284
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #150 -1.8% #151
Possession Length 17.7 #207 16.9 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #22 0.18 #201
Improvement -0.5 #208 -4.5 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 89.4% 94.1% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 88.7% 62.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 6.2% 4.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 412 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 271 Texas St. W 83 - 48 83% +13  1 - 0 +26 +7 A+ F C +18 B A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 275 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 83% +6  2 - 0 +14 +4 B- F A+ +9 B B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 136 @Davidson L 87 - 91 36% -9  2 - 1 +1 +8 C- B- A+ -7 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 133 William & Mary L 74 - 82 58% -9  2 - 2 -9 -7 F+ C+ D- -2 C- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 323 Bucknell W 71 - 66 84% +12  3 - 2 -5 -4 D D- F -1 D- B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 353 VMI W 81 - 48 90% +22  4 - 2 +20 +4 B+ C F +17 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 87 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 20% +9  5 - 2 +26 +21 A B+ A+ +6 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 108 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 50% -10  5 - 3 -10 -2 D+ C B- -8 F A- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 358 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 95% +11  6 - 3 +3 -2 C F A- +6 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 214 @Ohio W 68 - 58 54% +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +10 -2 D+ C- F +12 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 91 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 42% -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -7 +2 C D+ C -9 D- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 45% +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +10 A- F+ A+ -7 F B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 143 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 37% -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +20 B+ A+ B -19 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 62 Akron L 67 - 77 31% -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -8 C F D +5 A- B A-
 Sat, Jan 17 242 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 79% +6  9 - 6 3 - 3 -1 +15 A C+ C+ -16 F C D
 Tue, Jan 20 273 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 65% +10  10 - 6 4 - 3 +15 -1 C F C+ +16 A+ B A
 Sat, Jan 24 164 @Toledo L 72 - 73 43% +1  10 - 7 4 - 4 +2 -0 B+ F F +2 A- D F+
 Tue, Jan 27 185 Buffalo L 78 - 89 71% -5  10 - 8 4 - 5 -16 +3 C- B+ B -20 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Central Michigan W 77 - 71 71%
 Tue, Feb 3 295 Ball St. W 75 - 64 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 @Arkansas St. L 79 - 81 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @Northern Illinois W 77 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Toledo W 80 - 76 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 143 Kent St. W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 91 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 84 22%
 Tue, Feb 24 273 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 Massachusetts W 80 - 75 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 242 @Eastern Michigan W 73 - 71 59%
Totals 16 - 12 10 - 8 +1 +0 C+ D+ C+ +1 C B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.8 6.9 1.7 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 10.8 13.8 3.8 0.2 30.2 4th
5th 0.7 8.5 11.1 2.7 0.1 23.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 8.5 2.1 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.6 2.0 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 2.0 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 12.3 20.8 25.1 22.3 11.0 2.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.1% 11.4% 11.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9
12-6 11.0% 10.9% 10.9% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.8
11-7 22.3% 7.1% 7.1% 13.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 20.8
10-8 25.1% 5.8% 5.8% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 23.6
9-9 20.8% 3.6% 3.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 20.0
8-10 12.3% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.0
7-11 4.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.4 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 21.9 71.9 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%