Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#149
Pace71.0#144
Improvement-1.1#256

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#171
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#325
Layup/Dunks+1.7#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+0.5#132

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#94
First Shot+0.6#143
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#58
Layups/Dunks-1.2#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#64
Freethrows-1.1#253
Improvement-1.6#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 11.8% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 91.8% 92.8% 76.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 86.4% 76.2%
Conference Champion 12.8% 13.1% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.5% 11.8% 6.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 67 - 9
Quad 412 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 240 Texas St. W 83-48 82%     1 - 0 +27.6 +7.7 +19.7
  Sun, Nov 9 307 Le Moyne W 83-60 89%     2 - 0 +11.7 +0.7 +10.9
  Sat, Nov 15 127 @Davidson L 87-91 39%     2 - 1 +1.2 +6.9 -5.3
  Wed, Nov 19 121 William & Mary L 74-82 59%     2 - 2 -8.0 -6.3 -0.9
  Mon, Nov 24 304 Bucknell W 71-66 83%     3 - 2 -2.9 -3.0 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 26 331 VMI W 81-48 88%     4 - 2 +22.6 +5.9 +18.4
  Mon, Dec 1 67 @Kansas St. W 82-66 20%     5 - 2 +27.3 +20.7 +8.0
  Sat, Dec 6 84 Utah Valley L 71-82 45%     5 - 3 -7.2 +0.6 -7.5
  Tue, Dec 16 338 Chicago St. W 83-67 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 175 @Ohio W 78-77 52%    
  Tue, Dec 30 106 Miami (OH) W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 152 @Massachusetts L 76-77 46%    
  Tue, Jan 6 131 @Kent St. L 80-82 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 65 Akron L 81-84 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 226 Eastern Michigan W 75-66 80%    
  Tue, Jan 20 253 @Western Michigan W 77-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 167 @Toledo W 78-77 51%    
  Tue, Jan 27 216 Buffalo W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 @Central Michigan W 77-68 79%    
  Tue, Feb 3 306 Ball St. W 76-62 89%    
  Wed, Feb 11 327 @Northern Illinois W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 167 Toledo W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Feb 17 131 Kent St. W 83-79 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 106 @Miami (OH) L 74-78 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 253 Western Michigan W 80-69 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 152 Massachusetts W 79-74 67%    
  Fri, Mar 6 226 @Eastern Michigan W 72-69 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 4.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.0 6.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.1 4.6 1.0 0.1 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.7 12.7 13.9 14.5 13.3 10.3 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.3% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 86.3% 2.9    2.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 62.3% 4.1    2.3 1.7 0.2
14-4 29.7% 3.1    1.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 6.9 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 45.9% 45.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
17-1 1.2% 33.6% 33.3% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.4%
16-2 3.4% 28.4% 28.4% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 2.4
15-3 6.6% 23.4% 23.4% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.1
14-4 10.3% 20.3% 20.3% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.2
13-5 13.3% 15.2% 15.2% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.3
12-6 14.5% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.8
11-7 13.9% 9.0% 9.0% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 12.6
10-8 12.7% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.9
9-9 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-10 6.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
7-11 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.8 10.7 7.1 17.9 10.7 53.6