St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #141
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #130
Pace 66.1 #257
Improvement -4.3 #334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 C+ C+ C+ D+ C-
Defense #226 D+ C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.14 #194 +0.8 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #80 0.84 #70 +3.0 #52
Three Pointers 34% #323 1.12 #52 -1.9 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #124 +1.9 #125
Freethrows 0.25 #316 77% #47 0.19 #269
Second Chance 34.5% #71 1.04 #192 0.36 #96
Turnovers 15.6% #122
Total Offense +2.9 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.17 #202 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.79 #231 -0.8 #248
Three Pointers 39% #238 1.12 #312 -1.1 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.6 #268
Freethrows 0.28 #125 78% #360 0.22 #201
Second Chance 29.5% #132 1.10 #269 0.33 #195
Turnovers 16.4% #182
Total Defense -1.6 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #257 -0.3% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #100 5.3% #278
Possession Length 17.5 #193 18.0 #284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #65 0.18 #209
Improvement +0.4 #157 -4.8 #357

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 77.0% 89.7% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.0% 15.1% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.1% 6.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 127 Bradley W 69 - 63 47% +4  1 - 0 +8 +1 D+ C C +7 D A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 342 Canisius W 89 - 70 92% +7  2 - 0 +4 +20 C A+ B- -14 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 173 Siena W 75 - 66 69% -1  3 - 0 +5 +7 C A+ D- -1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 221 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 77% -5  4 - 0 -3 +8 A- C F -11 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 20 203 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 75% +4  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F +9 A+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 25 28 North Carolina L 70 - 85 11% -11  5 - 1 -0 +1 C+ C B -1 C C- A
 Thu, Nov 27 262 East Carolina W 67 - 58 74% +2  6 - 1 +3 -7 D D+ D- +10 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 101 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 26% +2  7 - 1 +13 +7 A+ F+ C- +7 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 185 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 50% +7  8 - 1 +9 +5 B- B+ F +4 D+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 213 Colgate W 85 - 77 76% -3  9 - 1 +2 +8 C+ B- D- -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 214 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 67% -3  9 - 2 -8 +1 D+ A- D -9 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 275 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 84% +1  10 - 2 +2 +16 A- B B -15 C F D
 Wed, Dec 31 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 13% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +17 B+ B+ B -10 D+ C- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 117 Richmond L 80 - 89 55% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -9 +7 D+ A+ A+ -16 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Fordham L 77 - 81 73% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -9 +8 B+ A+ D- -17 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 139 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 38% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 +0 -0 F C- C +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 202 @La Salle L 74 - 78 54% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +10 A+ F C- -14 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 280 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 85% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +4 +7 D+ D+ A+ -3 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 26 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 15% -25  11 - 8 1 - 6 -23 -4 C- D- C -18 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 122 @Duquesne W 87 - 79 34% -2  12 - 8 2 - 6 +13 +17 A C+ A+ -3 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 86 George Mason L 71 - 73 41%
 Tue, Feb 3 85 @Dayton L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @Fordham W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 122 Duquesne W 79 - 77 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 139 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 117 @Richmond L 73 - 78 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 109 Rhode Island W 72 - 71 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 86 @George Mason L 68 - 76 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 65 @George Washington L 75 - 85 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 136 Davidson W 72 - 69 60%
Totals 16 - 14 6 - 12 +1 +3 C+ C+ C+ -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.4 2.2 0.4 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 2.1 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 5.7 0.7 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 7.4 4.0 0.1 12.4 9th
10th 0.6 6.9 8.3 0.6 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 0.3 4.6 10.7 2.6 0.0 18.2 11th
12th 0.3 3.7 9.3 4.8 0.2 18.3 12th
13th 0.3 3.6 7.0 4.2 0.5 15.6 13th
14th 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.7 4.4 11.2 18.8 23.8 19.9 13.3 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 5.8% 0.5% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 5.8
8-10 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.1 0.0 13.2
7-11 19.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.8
6-12 23.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.7
5-13 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 18.8
4-14 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.5 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%