Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #243
Pace 75.8 #30
Improvement +2.4 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #305 D+ D+ D+ C D+
Defense #313 C D- D+ F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.11 #245 -1.6 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #81 0.67 #317 +0.8 #128
Three Pointers 37% #264 0.99 #220 -2.6 #275
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #282 -3.4 #283
Freethrows 0.30 #195 75% #106 0.23 #165
Second Chance 25.7% #311 1.00 #207 0.26 #292
Turnovers 18.4% #277
Total Offense -5.2 #305

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.22 #264 -3.4 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.70 #79 +2.3 #24
Three Pointers 42% #147 0.99 #131 +0.1 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #210 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 0.39 #355 74% #259 0.28 #354
Second Chance 35.3% #332 1.13 #311 0.40 #342
Turnovers 15.3% #279
Total Defense -4.8 #313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #283 1.8% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #273 0.1% #184
Possession Length 16.2 #79 16.8 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #176 0.13 #56
Improvement +1.0 #125 +1.4 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.5% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 11.5% 14.6% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 96.8% 80.5%
Conference Champion 7.8% 10.2% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 5.5% 4.6%
First Round3.1% 3.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 412 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0 - 1 -29 -19 F F F -9 C- F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 205 @Portland L 74 - 83 17% -10  0 - 2 -9 -9 F C- F +2 B- B B
 Sat, Nov 8 154 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 12% -9  0 - 3 -19 +2 B D+ D -21 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 57 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 3% -9  0 - 4 -14 -0 D+ C F -14 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 12 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -14  0 - 5 -7 +8 B- D+ B -13 A- F F+
 Tue, Nov 18 39 @SMU L 60 - 106 2% -24  0 - 6 -29 -15 D- F D -8 F+ B+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 156 @Marshall L 70 - 98 12% -5  0 - 7 -25 -8 F D+ D- -15 F A+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 92 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 5% -16  0 - 8 -18 +1 F A- A -16 F C- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 134 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 10% +5  1 - 8 +6 -8 C D+ C- +14 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 95 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5% +1  1 - 9 +5 +2 A F+ F +3 A+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 68 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 4% -16  1 - 10 -22 +5 B+ C D- -23 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 56% +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +0 +27 A- A+ B- -25 C- F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 318 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 60% +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 -2 +6 C+ D- D+ -8 C C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 312 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 35% +8  4 - 10 3 - 0 +2 -2 C+ F C+ +4 A- C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 12 340 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 45% -6  4 - 11 3 - 1 -20 -14 F F+ C- -6 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 324 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 62% -1  4 - 12 3 - 2 -17 -6 F+ B- D+ -11 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 222 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 37% +2  4 - 13 3 - 3 -11 -2 B- D- F -9 B+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @Southern W 75 - 74 25% -2  5 - 13 4 - 3 -2 +2 D- C B- -4 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 70 84% +7  6 - 13 5 - 3 -13 -3 F F B- -10 D- D C-
 Wed, Feb 4 276 @Grambling St. W 67 - 64 28% +4  7 - 13 6 - 3 -1 -3 F C+ C+ +2 A- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 351 Alcorn St. W 81 - 75 71%
 Mon, Feb 9 341 Jackson St. W 83 - 78 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 318 @Alabama St. L 78 - 81 37%
 Mon, Feb 16 307 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 312 Texas Southern W 82 - 80 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 340 Prairie View W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 65 94%
 Tue, Mar 3 341 @Jackson St. L 80 - 81 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 351 @Alcorn St. W 78 - 77 49%
Totals 12 - 17 11 - 6 -10 -5 D+ D+ D+ -5 C D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.3 0.9 7.8 1st
2nd 1.4 11.1 12.1 3.8 0.3 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.8 11.3 2.6 0.1 21.8 3rd
4th 1.5 10.1 2.9 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 5.1 4.5 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.5 6.3 0.6 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 2.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 0.3 3.0 8th
9th 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.3 6.6 15.6 24.5 25.8 17.8 7.2 1.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 72.7% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
13-5 46.2% 3.3    1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 17.1% 3.1    0.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 2.1 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.2% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.1
13-5 7.2% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.1 0.8 6.3
12-6 17.8% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6 16.2
11-7 25.8% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 24.1
10-8 24.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.1 23.3
9-9 15.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 15.0
8-10 6.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.5
7-11 1.3% 1.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%