Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 331
Results Rating -9.6 319
Consistency 0.12 41
Pace 72.9 70
Improvement -3.0 292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 319 F+ C D B F
Defense D 318 D+ D- C D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 245 D 53% 308 -3.3 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 66% 4 D 34% 309 +3.9 32
Three Pointers 29% 358 D- 29% 335 -8.0 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -1.9 352 D- -5.5 345
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.87 356
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 147 D+ 0.96 280 C 0.31 189
Turnovers D 19.1% 313
Freethrows B 0.35 56 B- 75% 88 B 0.26 43
Total Offense D -6.0 319

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 318 D+ 12.7% 282
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 85 D+ 6.6% 281
Three Pointers D+ 80% 261 D+ 1.2% 280
Total D- 46% 342 D- 7.3% 329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 141 C 58% 189 +0.9 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 225 D- 44% 342 +0.4 221
Three Pointers 41% 166 D+ 36% 285 +1.7 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 228 D+ +2.6 284
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 276
Second Chance F 36.9% 355 C 1.04 211 D- 0.39 337
Turnovers C 17.2% 151
Freethrows D- 0.36 326 C 73% 200 D- 0.26 326
Total Defense D -5.3 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 205 B 14.6% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 260 A- 9.6% 20
Three Pointers D 89% 320 C 0.9% 149
Total C- 59% 253 B+ 8.0% 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 177 16.0 20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 156 0.22 323
Consistency 0.10 48 0.11 112
Improvement -1.1 242 -1.8 285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 344 331 318
Results Rating Rank 337 312 294
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 98% 87% 99%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 44 - 77 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 D- F F C- -2 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 82% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -5 D- -7 F+ F+ F B- +3 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 74 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 C- C+ D F -11 B+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 151 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 9% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 C- A+ F F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 91% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F B- A- D -6 D- B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 80 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 3% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -20 F -20 F B+ F B +4 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 130 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 7% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 C+ +3 D D A B+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 158 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 10% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -18 F -11 F A F D -6 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 8% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +4 A F C F -24 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 129 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 17% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -12 F -11 F B D- C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 281 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 44% -4  12% 3 - 8 F -18 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 186 Idaho W 64 - 63 26% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 121 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 15% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B +7 C B+ A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 176 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D B+ A C -1 D+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 283 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 44% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -9 F -12 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 10 262 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 21% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 D- -6 D+ F C- C- -2 D F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 140 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 19% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 F A A- D- -7 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 17 134 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 17% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -22 F -13 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 118 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D+ -4 F F+ A+ F -14 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 230 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 33% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -32 F+ -8 C- A- F F -21 F F+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 176 UC Davis L 72 - 80 24% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 C B- D D- -7 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 121 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 6% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 F+ -8 F B+ F C -1 B- A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 14% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -16 F -13 F C- D- C- -2 D- A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 118 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C +0 C+ C- C+ F -15 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 283 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 24% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -32 F -17 F F D+ F -12 F B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 29% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -14 C- -2 F+ C A F -11 F B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @UC San Diego L 66 - 82 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 262 Long Beach St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 158 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 86 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 230 @Cal Poly L 79 - 90 16%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -11 D -6 B D- F D -5 D- B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D D- D- 36% 66% 29% F F+ C+ D+ C D B B- B D C D- D+ D+ 40% 19% 41% C- D+ F C D- C D- C D-
1.00 53% 34% 29% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.0 .31 19% .35 75% .26 1.16 58% 44% 36% +3 0 1.08 37% 1.0 .39 17% .36 73% .25
Nov
3		 California F F D D D- 51% 33% 16% D D- C+ F F F A+ C- A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ F B- F A F A- D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C F+ B- F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D C- B- D+ C+ D A+ F+ A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A F+ F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C 34% 32% 34% F+ C- C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ B B- A- A+ D- A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- C+ B+ B- F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B B+ F A+ F A+ B C- F A+ A- 44% 2% 54% F B F+ C- F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. C+ B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D D+ D A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F+ A+ F F F A D D D-
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C+ A F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D 57% 8% 35% F D- F F+ F C+ F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F F D- F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ B- B D- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F D+ F F 40% 24% 36% D- F A- F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F A+ A+ A- F+ A D+
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B A- C- B 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B- C- F F F F B+ B- C+ A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C- C- C- C+ C+ F C-
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ D+ B+ A B A- B+ F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A- B+ A A A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- D+ F+ D F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F B- B+ B B- A+ D- F D+ 42% 18% 40% D+ D+ B A+ A A- C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F C- D+ A+ C+ C- C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D B F F+ B+ F D+ F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C- D+ A F F+ 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A A- B C- B- D- C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% B- C- D+ A B C F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D 29% 29% 43% F+ D- C+ F F F A+ C+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B F D- F D- C- D-
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D+ F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F A F+ A+ A+ B A+ F F A- A+ B 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D F F F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A+ B- C 31% 29% 40% F C- B B+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A F+ A- D+ F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C D+ A+ B- D B D B- D- C+ D- B+ B 29% 29% 42% A B D- F F D- F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine F+ F C F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- A- B+ F B A+ A+ C C F+ A+ B+ 57% 20% 23% F B- F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F C- D- A+ F C C- A+ F F D- 35% 15% 50% D+ D- F+ A+ A- C- D D+ D
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C A- A+ F A 25% 55% 20% F C+ C D C- C+ C+ A- B F F A+ D- F 30% 30% 40% A+ D F F F C- F F+ F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D+ A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ B+ D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton C- A+ F+ F D 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- C+ C A B+ A+ A F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F B- C- C- B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 2.2 1.8 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 8.0 0.9 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 38.1 42.5 6.3 0.0 87.0 11th
Total 38.1 42.5 16.5 2.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 16.5% 16.5
3-17 42.5% 42.5
2-18 38.1% 38.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 38.1%