Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.8 #62
Expected Predictive Rating +9.2 #66
Pace 70.2 #138
Improvement +4.3 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 C C+ C B- C+
Defense #20 A- B- C+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.22 #108 +3.6 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.65 #330 -1.6 #267
Three Pointers 38% #233 0.97 #238 -2.2 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.2 #184
Freethrows 0.33 #118 75% #80 0.25 #87
Second Chance 33.0% #110 1.02 #181 0.34 #124
Turnovers 16.8% #165
Total Offense +1.1 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.00 #24 +4.5 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #47 0.77 #204 -2.0 #327
Three Pointers 39% #250 0.83 #6 +4.9 #17
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #13 +7.3 #12
Freethrows 0.32 #238 72% #141 0.23 #228
Second Chance 25.7% #33 1.07 #247 0.27 #86
Turnovers 18.3% #102
Total Defense +7.7 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #118 -1.6% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #198 -12.8% #12
Possession Length 17.8 #237 16.8 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.16 #136
Improvement +1.2 #111 +3.1 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 18.9% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.9% 9.5% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 10.0% 13.5% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 6.3% 4.1%
First Round13.5% 15.7% 9.4%
Second Round3.6% 4.2% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 25 - 27 - 8
Quad 34 - 212 - 10
Quad 410 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 93% +15  1 - 0 +11 +7 A- B- C +3 B+ C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 197 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 90% -3  1 - 1 -14 +3 D- A+ C+ -17 D+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 310 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96% +17  2 - 1 +17 +9 C+ A+ D- +8 A D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 25 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 16% -11  2 - 2 +5 -4 D- D- C +10 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 283 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 95% +8  3 - 2 +3 +8 C C+ C+ -4 D- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 107 Utah W 68 - 58 68% +6  4 - 2 +14 -2 F D A+ +17 A+ D A
 Wed, Nov 26 21 Iowa L 46 - 59 21% -6  4 - 3 +4 -12 C+ F F +14 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 335 Stetson W 67 - 45 97% +4  5 - 3 +8 -9 F C F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 51 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 44% -2  5 - 4 +4 +8 D+ A A+ -4 D- A B
 Sat, Dec 13 240 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 93% +19  6 - 4 +13 +10 D A+ A +4 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 108 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 57% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +19 +8 A+ D+ F +10 A+ D+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 338 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -1 +3 C B C- -5 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 75% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -8 F B- C -2 B+ B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 59 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 37% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +29 +10 A- C- C- +19 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 238 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 93% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +10 -3 C C D+ +13 B+ A A
 Tue, Jan 13 49 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 31% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -9 -4 D- F+ A+ -4 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 32 Utah St. W 84 - 74 39% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +21 +22 A+ B A+ +0 A+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 44 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 49% +2  12 - 6 5 - 2 +10 +4 B- D+ D+ +6 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 145 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 68% +5  13 - 6 6 - 2 +15 +4 F A+ B+ +12 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 70 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 41% +2  13 - 7 6 - 3 +5 -11 F+ D+ F+ +16 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 30 59 Boise St. W 86 - 69 60% +6  14 - 7 7 - 3 +23 +21 A+ C+ B+ +3 A+ C- B-
 Tue, Feb 3 350 Air Force W 81 - 57 98% +21  15 - 7 8 - 3 +9 +5 A- B- C+ +4 B+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 130 @UNLV W 78 - 74 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 49 New Mexico W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 238 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 83%
 Tue, Feb 17 44 @San Diego St. L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 Wyoming W 75 - 67 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 130 UNLV W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 @Utah St. L 68 - 77 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 350 @Air Force W 75 - 57 96%
 Sat, Mar 7 145 Fresno St. W 76 - 65 83%
Totals 21 - 10 14 - 6 +9 +1 C C+ C +8 A- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.0 5.5 1.4 10.0 1st
2nd 0.1 4.1 13.1 3.3 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.9 16.4 6.7 0.1 28.2 3rd
4th 0.4 4.3 13.8 8.1 0.1 26.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.6 4.2 0.3 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.5 10.7 23.0 29.0 22.9 8.8 1.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.4    1.2 0.1
16-4 62.4% 5.5    1.7 3.1 0.7 0.0
15-5 13.1% 3.0    0.2 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 3.2 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.4% 61.8% 19.1% 42.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 52.7%
16-4 8.8% 39.6% 17.4% 22.2% 10.3 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 0.0 5.3 26.9%
15-5 22.9% 23.3% 12.1% 11.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 0.2 17.6 12.7%
14-6 29.0% 14.4% 9.1% 5.3% 10.9 0.1 0.6 3.3 0.2 24.8 5.9%
13-7 23.0% 8.4% 6.6% 1.9% 11.0 0.2 1.6 0.2 21.1 2.0%
12-8 10.7% 5.4% 4.4% 1.0% 11.1 0.5 0.1 10.1 1.1%
11-9 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.1 3.4
10-10 0.6% 0.6
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.5% 9.3% 7.2% 10.7 83.5 7.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.0 3.8 3.8 26.9 30.8 30.8 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 84.0% 9.8 28.0 44.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 49.0% 10.2 2.0 3.9 23.5 19.6