Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#168
Pace67.0#248
Improvement-3.1#346

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-5.0#315
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#125
Layup/Dunks-2.8#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#239
Freethrows-3.6#344
Improvement+1.8#53

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#69
First Shot+1.3#122
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#26
Layups/Dunks-1.1#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#37
Freethrows-1.8#300
Improvement-5.0#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 23.7% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 96.8% 98.2% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 96.9% 94.4%
Conference Champion 30.0% 32.4% 22.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round22.0% 23.5% 17.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 417 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 101 @Xavier L 62-66 22%     0 - 1 +3.9 -4.2 +7.9
  Sun, Nov 9 208 @Dartmouth W 75-56 49%     1 - 1 +18.9 -0.4 +18.6
  Sun, Nov 16 200 Harvard L 54-56 70%     1 - 2 -7.6 -15.2 +7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 332 Army W 76-65 89%     2 - 2 -2.4 +0.9 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 308 Lehigh W 78-55 85%     3 - 2 +11.5 +2.5 +9.7
  Fri, Dec 5 302 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 83%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -2.4 -14.6 +12.0
  Sun, Dec 7 319 Manhattan W 80-68 87%     5 - 2 2 - 0 -0.4 -7.6 +6.3
  Sat, Dec 13 299 @Bryant W 82-74 65%     6 - 2 +3.6 +10.0 -6.2
  Tue, Dec 16 128 @Georgia Tech L 76-87 30%     6 - 3 -6.0 +10.2 -16.4
  Sun, Dec 21 239 Stony Brook W 69-62 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 157 @Quinnipiac L 69-72 38%    
  Fri, Jan 2 290 @St. Peter's W 65-61 64%    
  Sun, Jan 4 172 Iona W 74-70 63%    
  Fri, Jan 9 268 @Sacred Heart W 73-71 59%    
  Sun, Jan 11 348 @Rider W 66-57 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 301 Fairfield W 73-63 82%    
  Mon, Jan 19 266 Merrimack W 68-60 78%    
  Thu, Jan 22 171 @Siena L 65-67 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 Quinnipiac W 72-69 60%    
  Fri, Jan 30 342 @Canisius W 66-58 76%    
  Sun, Feb 1 353 @Niagara W 69-59 81%    
  Thu, Feb 5 348 Rider W 69-54 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 301 @Fairfield W 70-66 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 266 @Merrimack W 65-63 60%    
  Sun, Feb 15 171 Siena W 68-64 63%    
  Fri, Feb 20 319 @Manhattan W 75-69 71%    
  Sun, Feb 22 268 Sacred Heart W 76-68 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 290 St. Peter's W 68-58 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.7 7.3 8.8 6.1 2.6 0.7 30.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.4 5.4 1.8 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.6 14.9 15.3 13.5 10.6 6.2 2.6 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 97.9% 6.1    5.5 0.6 0.0
17-3 82.6% 8.8    6.3 2.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 53.7% 7.3    3.7 2.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 24.0% 3.7    1.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.0% 30.0 20.2 7.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 47.0% 47.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
19-1 2.6% 50.8% 50.8% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3
18-2 6.2% 38.5% 38.5% 13.4 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 3.8
17-3 10.6% 34.7% 34.7% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 6.9
16-4 13.5% 29.4% 29.4% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.5 0.1 9.6
15-5 15.3% 25.4% 25.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.3 11.4
14-6 14.9% 19.0% 19.0% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.4 12.1
13-7 12.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 10.6
12-8 9.6% 10.8% 10.8% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 8.6
11-9 6.5% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.9
10-10 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.6
9-11 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 7.4 7.8 2.5 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.6 2.5 1.3 36.3 52.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%