Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #285
Pace 69.1 #171
Improvement +2.9 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 C- C- F C- B-
Defense #214 C C+ D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.14 #197 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #305 0.62 #343 -3.3 #332
Three Pointers 46% #85 0.95 #271 +0.8 #148
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #236 -2.1 #239
Freethrows 0.30 #198 67% #331 0.20 #248
Second Chance 28.9% #234 0.97 #256 0.28 #256
Turnovers 22.4% #364
Total Offense -6.3 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.10 #99 +2.5 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.80 #258 -0.3 #211
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.03 #204 -1.6 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #155 +0.6 #155
Freethrows 0.33 #282 74% #272 0.25 #292
Second Chance 29.6% #138 1.01 #158 0.30 #143
Turnovers 13.7% #334
Total Defense -1.1 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #67 -0.2% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #281 -1.0% #168
Possession Length 17.1 #154 16.8 #106
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #227 0.21 #294
Improvement -0.5 #207 +3.3 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.2% 5.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 51.9% 19.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 412 - 813 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 58 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -4 -8 D- B+ F +4 B A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 316 Bucknell L 62 - 73 69% -4  0 - 2 -24 -12 F F F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 65% +5  1 - 2 -3 -3 B F F -0 B B D
 Sun, Nov 16 53 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -4 -8 C- C- F +5 B+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 19 105 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  1 - 4 +2 +12 A B+ F -9 D+ B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 275 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 34% -8  1 - 5 -26 -15 D- D- F -12 D D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -10 C F C- -24 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 253 Howard W 79 - 75 53% +5  2 - 6 -4 +5 A- C D -9 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 3 269 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 56% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -16 +3 C- A- C -19 B F D
 Fri, Dec 5 164 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -12 F+ C F +7 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 318 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 47% +5  3 - 8 +1 -1 B- C+ F +2 D A+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 205 @Drexel L 67 - 75 23% -7  3 - 9 -8 -4 A- D+ F -3 F C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 231 Iona W 66 - 59 48% +1  4 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -12 D+ D F +12 A+ C- B-
 Fri, Jan 2 208 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 24% -4  4 - 10 1 - 3 -10 -6 F+ D- F -4 C+ C- D
 Sun, Jan 4 191 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 21% -6  4 - 11 1 - 4 -10 -3 F A+ D -7 F+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 227 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 47% +1  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -2 F B C- +0 B+ A- C
 Sun, Jan 11 178 Siena L 50 - 67 38% -5  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -18 F C F -5 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 339 @Canisius W 78 - 68 54% +1  6 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +7 A- C F -5 F A+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 348 @Niagara W 68 - 58 55% +1  7 - 12 4 - 5 +1 +1 D+ F+ C- +2 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 22 191 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 41% -12  7 - 13 4 - 6 -20 -13 C- F F -8 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 352 Rider W 71 - 61 80% +0  8 - 13 5 - 6 -6 +1 B C F -6 A+ F F
 Fri, Jan 30 227 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 26% -1  8 - 14 5 - 7 -9 -4 D C- F -5 C C D-
 Sun, Feb 1 327 Manhattan W 78 - 72 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 208 Merrimack L 66 - 67 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Iona L 69 - 75 27%
 Fri, Feb 13 352 @Rider W 70 - 67 61%
 Fri, Feb 20 348 Niagara W 70 - 63 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 339 Canisius W 70 - 63 74%
 Fri, Feb 27 269 @Sacred Heart L 74 - 78 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 268 @Fairfield L 70 - 74 34%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7 -6 C- C- F -1 C C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.8 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 2.0 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.4 5.4 6.9 1.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.2 4.2 10.9 2.7 0.1 18.1 7th
8th 0.1 3.6 14.0 6.9 0.3 24.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 10.6 7.4 0.6 20.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.2 4.8 0.6 11.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.2 2.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 2.3 9.0 19.4 26.6 24.1 13.1 4.5 0.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.3
11-9 13.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 12.7
10-10 24.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 23.7
9-11 26.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 26.2
8-12 19.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.2
7-13 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%