Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.8 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -10.4 #325
Pace 67.6 #217
Improvement -3.8 #327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 F+ D C D- C-
Defense #278 D- D+ C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #355 1.04 #303 -7.1 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.50 #364 -2.9 #320
Three Pointers 51% #19 0.90 #324 +2.2 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #356 -7.8 #356
Freethrows 0.23 #351 74% #140 0.17 #340
Second Chance 22.3% #352 1.05 #155 0.23 #340
Turnovers 16.7% #195
Total Offense -6.6 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.28 #323 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.89 #346 -1.3 #288
Three Pointers 44% #94 1.13 #329 -4.1 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -5.8 #337
Freethrows 0.32 #249 74% #241 0.24 #264
Second Chance 34.4% #316 1.07 #216 0.37 #294
Turnovers 16.1% #199
Total Defense -3.2 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #261 -0.5% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.3% #358 12.2% #354
Possession Length 18.8 #315 17.5 #210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #354 0.17 #185
Improvement -0.6 #218 -3.2 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.0% 17.1% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.3% 22.1% 46.7%
First Four2.2% 2.9% 1.5%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 410 - 1210 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 278 Delaware W 78 - 70 49% -4  1 - 0 -2 +0 F B F -2 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 7 291 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 30% -1  2 - 0 +7 +6 B- F A+ +2 B- B B+
 Tue, Nov 11 213 @Princeton L 63 - 73 18% -12  2 - 1 -10 -7 C- F F -3 D+ C- C+
 Fri, Nov 14 134 Hofstra L 77 - 83 21% -7  2 - 2 -7 -3 D+ B F -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 94 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 5% -20  2 - 3 -25 -16 F F+ F -12 F F+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 19 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -21  2 - 4 -27 -18 F D- F -6 D A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 146 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 16% -12  2 - 5 -4 -5 C- D- F +1 C C- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Buffalo L 71 - 73 22% -10  2 - 6 -4 +5 C+ C- D+ -9 D+ A D
 Sun, Nov 30 174 Cornell L 72 - 101 30% -21  2 - 7 -33 -13 F C+ F -19 F F A
 Wed, Dec 3 62 @Akron L 77 - 97 3% -16  2 - 8 -8 +8 C+ F A -17 D- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 260 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 45% -4  2 - 9 -16 -6 F F+ D+ -10 F C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 352 @Rider W 51 - 38 51% +6  3 - 9 +3 -18 F+ F F +23 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 23 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -39 -23 D+ F F -20 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 323 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 39% -7  3 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -11 D- F F -4 D C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 304 Lehigh W 72 - 65 56% -8  4 - 11 1 - 1 -4 -8 F B- C- +4 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 175 @Navy L 55 - 76 14% -16  4 - 12 1 - 2 -19 -11 F F F -10 F+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 318 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 60% -9  5 - 12 2 - 2 -9 -8 F F+ F -1 F A A+
 Wed, Jan 14 315 Lafayette W 76 - 69 60% -6  6 - 12 3 - 2 -5 +2 B+ B+ F -7 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 17 214 @Colgate L 76 - 95 18% -23  6 - 13 3 - 3 -19 +0 D- C- D -19 F F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 334 Army L 84 - 87 OT 66% -10  6 - 14 3 - 4 -17 +2 C F C- -19 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 318 @Loyola Maryland L 62 - 67 37% -14  6 - 15 3 - 5 -11 -8 F F+ C- -4 C D- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 315 @Lafayette L 79 - 81 37% -6  6 - 16 3 - 6 -8 +9 D D+ D -18 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 286 Boston University W 70 - 69 51%
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @American L 66 - 75 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 214 Colgate L 70 - 74 38%
 Mon, Feb 9 175 Navy L 65 - 70 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 286 @Boston University L 67 - 73 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 233 American L 69 - 72 40%
 Sun, Feb 22 323 Holy Cross W 71 - 68 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 334 @Army L 72 - 74 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 @Lehigh L 68 - 72 33%
Totals 9 - 22 6 - 12 -10 -7 F+ D C -3 D- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.8 0.2 7.3 4th
5th 1.0 6.4 2.3 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.3 6.3 5.8 0.4 12.9 6th
7th 3.7 10.0 1.3 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 2.3 11.2 4.0 0.1 17.6 8th
9th 1.3 9.3 7.6 0.3 18.5 9th
10th 1.9 7.3 7.1 0.9 17.3 10th
Total 1.9 8.6 18.7 23.8 21.7 15.3 6.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.6% 21.0% 21.0% 16.0 0.1 0.5
10-8 3.0% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.3 2.7
9-9 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.4 6.0
8-10 15.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.6 14.7
7-11 21.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.3
6-12 23.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.5
5-13 18.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.6
4-14 8.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.5
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%