Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #113
Pace 74.2 #48
Improvement -0.7 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #76 C C+ A- B B-
Defense #252 C- C D+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.13 #202 +3.7 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.73 #219 -0.7 #220
Three Pointers 35% #311 1.02 #186 -3.2 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #185 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 0.34 #67 75% #93 0.26 #54
Second Chance 30.9% #169 1.11 #75 0.34 #109
Turnovers 13.5% #20
Total Offense +4.4 #76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.28 #317 -0.7 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.92 #358 -2.3 #336
Three Pointers 42% #146 0.96 #100 +0.7 #154
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #263 -2.3 #266
Freethrows 0.24 #19 72% #140 0.17 #24
Second Chance 33.6% #299 0.95 #69 0.32 #194
Turnovers 15.4% #269
Total Defense -2.5 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 -0.7% #107
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #201 5.3% #284
Possession Length 16.5 #99 16.7 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #29 0.15 #98
Improvement -3.5 #336 +2.8 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 33.9% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 58.1% 65.0% 37.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round33.1% 33.9% 30.6%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 37 - 37 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 2% -27  0 - 1 -15 +12 A+ D+ A -23 F D- F
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  0 - 2 +14 +13 B- A- A +1 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 6 @Houston L 45 - 78 3% -21  0 - 3 -8 -10 F+ F+ A- -2 B- C D
 Mon, Nov 17 44 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 12% -5  0 - 4 +11 +12 C+ C A- -2 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 236 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 62% -1  0 - 5 -7 +14 A- C+ A+ -21 F B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 190 Lamar W 83 - 68 65% +4  1 - 5 +13 +9 D+ A+ B +4 B F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 158 @Montana W 95 - 87 46% +4  2 - 5 +11 +15 A+ D- B+ -5 C- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 78% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +16 A- C+ A+ -14 D C F
 Sat, Dec 6 159 Toledo W 98 - 97 69% -1  4 - 5 -2 +11 C B+ A+ -13 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 32% -5  4 - 6 -5 -4 C- C F -1 C B F+
 Wed, Dec 17 194 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 55% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +6 +6 D D- A+ -1 C C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 10 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  5 - 7 +11 +12 A C+ C -1 B+ C+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 145 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 42% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -11 -0 F+ D C- -11 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 225 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 60% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +1 +18 A B- A+ -16 C+ F F
 Sun, Jan 4 220 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 78% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +21 C A A+ -4 C- B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 9 305 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 89% +13  8 - 8 5 - 1 +14 +8 F A+ C- +4 A+ D D-
 Sun, Jan 11 145 Wright St. L 84 - 94 65% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -12 +5 C D- A+ -17 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 66% +9  9 - 9 6 - 2 +11 -6 F B+ F +16 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 257 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 66% +11  10 - 9 7 - 2 +23 +18 B+ A+ C- +7 B- B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 340 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 93% -8  10 - 10 7 - 3 -33 +2 F B A+ -34 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 278 @Detroit Mercy W 95 - 87 70% +4  11 - 10 8 - 3 +4 +20 B+ C+ A+ -16 F C C
 Wed, Jan 28 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 74 - 65 58% +1  12 - 10 9 - 3 +9 +2 D+ F+ A+ +7 A+ F D-
 Sun, Feb 1 194 Northern Kentucky W 76 - 65 75% +2  13 - 10 10 - 3 +6 -6 F A+ B- +11 A+ B+ D-
 Wed, Feb 4 305 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 83 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 225 Youngstown St. W 84 - 75 79%
 Sun, Feb 15 220 @Robert Morris W 80 - 78 57%
 Fri, Feb 20 257 Green Bay W 85 - 75 84%
 Sun, Feb 22 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87 - 77 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 340 @IU Indianapolis W 95 - 85 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Detroit Mercy W 89 - 78 85%
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +2 +4 C C+ A- -2 C- C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 12.5 25.1 17.8 58.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 10.6 15.0 9.2 1.2 40.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.6 13.4 27.5 34.4 19.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 93.5% 17.8    13.8 4.0
16-4 73.1% 25.1    15.1 10.0 0.0
15-5 45.4% 12.5    4.9 7.2 0.5
14-6 18.2% 2.4    0.5 1.5 0.5
13-7 4.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.1% 58.1 34.3 22.7 1.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 19.1% 39.3% 39.3% 12.8 0.0 2.5 4.3 0.7 11.6
16-4 34.4% 35.3% 35.3% 13.5 0.7 5.7 5.3 0.5 22.2
15-5 27.5% 30.9% 30.9% 13.8 0.1 2.8 4.7 0.9 19.0
14-6 13.4% 26.1% 26.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.0 9.9
13-7 4.6% 28.0% 28.0% 14.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 3.3
12-8 1.0% 16.8% 16.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
11-9 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.1% 33.1% 0.0% 13.5 67.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.5% 100.0% 12.8 0.5 33.1 57.2 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%