IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#151
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.6	#79
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#196

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	25.9%	28.7%	19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.5	14.3

.500 or above	74.7%	81.9%	58.4%
.500 or above in Conference	88.0%	90.8%	81.7%
Conference Champion	36.0%	40.3%	26.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	0.9%	2.4%

First Four	1.6%	1.2%	2.5%
First Round	25.9%	28.7%	19.4%
Second Round	2.0%	2.4%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Neutral) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 4	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	257	Merrimack	W	70-65	69%
Nov 09, 2025	110	@ Northern Iowa	L	67-74	28%
Nov 12, 2025	28	@ Oregon	L	66-83	6%
Nov 21, 2025	284	Georgia St.	W	82-72	82%
Nov 25, 2025	119	Utah Valley	L	72-74	43%
Nov 26, 2025	93	UC Irvine	L	71-76	33%
Dec 03, 2025	263	@ Northern Arizona	W	75-72	60%
Dec 06, 2025	235	Idaho	W	78-71	75%
Dec 09, 2025	244	@ Ball St.	W	75-73	57%
Dec 15, 2025	155	Wyoming	W	70-69	51%
Dec 19, 2025	214	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	78-74	62%
Dec 29, 2025	10	@ Arizona	L	68-89	4%
Jan 01, 2026	182	Nebraska Omaha	W	78-73	66%
Jan 03, 2026	315	@ North Dakota	W	80-74	70%
Jan 08, 2026	321	Denver	W	79-66	86%
Jan 14, 2026	208	@ North Dakota St.	W	73-72	50%
Jan 17, 2026	301	UMKC	W	74-63	82%
Jan 22, 2026	148	@ St. Thomas	L	74-77	39%
Jan 28, 2026	182	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	75-76	46%
Jan 31, 2026	310	Oral Roberts	W	81-69	83%
Feb 04, 2026	148	St. Thomas	W	77-74	60%
Feb 07, 2026	294	South Dakota	W	91-80	81%
Feb 12, 2026	321	@ Denver	W	76-69	71%
Feb 14, 2026	310	@ Oral Roberts	W	78-72	68%
Feb 18, 2026	208	North Dakota St.	W	76-70	69%
Feb 21, 2026	315	North Dakota	W	83-71	84%
Feb 26, 2026	301	@ UMKC	W	71-66	66%
Feb 28, 2026	294	@ South Dakota	W	88-83	65%
Projected Record						17 - 11	11 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.4	2.6	6.4	9.5	9.1	5.9	2.1		36.0	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	3.7	7.8	7.1	2.9	0.5				22.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	4.0	6.1	3.5	0.6	0.0					15.0	3rd
4th							0.0	0.6	3.4	4.5	1.8	0.2							10.5	4th
5th						0.0	0.5	2.4	2.9	1.0	0.1								6.8	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	1.6	1.9	0.6	0.0									4.3	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	1.0	1.1	0.3	0.0										2.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0											1.5	8th
9th	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0												0.7	9th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.3	5.2	7.6	10.2	12.1	13.9	14.1	12.5	9.6	5.9	2.1			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	2.1		2.1
15-1	100.0%	5.9		5.8	0.1
14-2	94.8%	9.1		7.8	1.3	0.0
13-3	76.3%	9.5		6.5	2.9	0.2
12-4	45.2%	6.4		2.8	2.8	0.8	0.0
11-5	18.3%	2.6		0.6	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0
10-6	3.4%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	36.0%	36.0		25.6	8.4	1.7	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	2.1%		63.9%	63.9%		11.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.8
15-1	5.9%		56.3%	56.3%	0.0%	12.4										0.0	0.0	0.5	1.4	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	2.6		0.0%
14-2	9.6%		46.7%	46.7%	0.0%	13.0											0.0	0.2	1.2	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	5.1		0.0%
13-3	12.5%		38.2%	38.2%		13.5												0.1	0.7	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.1	7.7
12-4	14.1%		30.7%	30.7%		14.1												0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	1.0	0.2	9.8
11-5	13.9%		23.7%	23.7%		15.3													0.1	0.4	1.2	1.3	0.5	10.6
10-6	12.1%		17.3%	17.3%		16.3														0.1	0.5	1.0	0.7	10.0
9-7	10.2%		10.8%	10.8%		17.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	9.1
8-8	7.6%		7.9%	7.9%		16.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	7.0
7-9	5.2%		5.9%	5.9%		16.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	4.9
6-10	3.3%		4.2%	4.2%		16.9																0.0	0.1	3.2
5-11	1.9%		1.7%	1.7%		15.9																0.0	0.0	1.9
4-12	1.0%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
3-13	0.4%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
2-14	0.2%																							0.2
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		25.9%	25.9%	0.0%	14.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.3	4.2	6.4	6.6	4.9	3.0	74.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0			48.8			1.2	50.0