Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#166
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#183
Pace68.1#220
Improvement-0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#214
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#232
Layup/Dunks-3.8#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#20
Freethrows-2.5#313
Improvement-0.9#254

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#133
First Shot+0.4#155
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#158
Layups/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#7
Freethrows-1.6#292
Improvement+0.8#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 17.0% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 86.4% 90.3% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 91.6% 85.4%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.3% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round15.7% 16.8% 12.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 33 - 64 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 102 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 22%     0 - 1 -7.4 -7.9 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 7 91 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 19%     1 - 1 +17.8 +20.6 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 15 111 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 25%     1 - 2 +2.5 +10.6 -8.1
  Wed, Nov 19 167 @Toledo L 75-92 39%     1 - 3 -14.8 -4.4 -9.4
  Sun, Nov 23 291 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 73%     1 - 4 -13.1 -17.3 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 235 Georgia Southern W 67-61 63%     2 - 4 +1.9 -7.1 +9.1
  Fri, Nov 28 341 Chicago St. W 87-64 89%     3 - 4 +8.9 +6.4 +2.3
  Wed, Dec 3 153 Wright St. W 69-68 57%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.5 -3.8 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 357 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 84%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +12.0 +2.1 +11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 183 @Robert Morris L 77-80 OT 42%     5 - 5 2 - 1 -1.6 +8.3 -9.9
  Sat, Dec 20 258 South Carolina Upstate W 76-68 78%    
  Mon, Dec 29 296 Detroit Mercy W 77-67 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 144 Oakland W 80-79 55%    
  Sun, Jan 4 195 @Northern Kentucky L 72-73 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 @Wright St. L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 329 @Cleveland St. W 79-73 72%    
  Thu, Jan 22 264 Green Bay W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 233 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 72%    
  Fri, Jan 30 357 IU Indianapolis W 92-76 94%    
  Wed, Feb 4 220 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 183 Robert Morris W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 144 @Oakland L 77-82 34%    
  Sun, Feb 15 296 @Detroit Mercy W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 18 329 Cleveland St. W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 Northern Kentucky W 75-70 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 233 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 264 @Green Bay W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 5.9 3.6 1.5 0.3 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.0 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.1 11.7 14.6 15.7 15.0 11.7 7.7 3.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.8% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 94.9% 3.6    3.2 0.5
16-4 77.5% 5.9    4.0 1.8 0.2
15-5 45.0% 5.3    2.4 2.2 0.7 0.0
14-6 17.0% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 11.8 5.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 39.4% 39.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.5% 38.1% 38.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-3 3.8% 36.3% 36.3% 13.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.4
16-4 7.7% 30.4% 30.4% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 5.3
15-5 11.7% 24.6% 24.6% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.8
14-6 15.0% 19.8% 19.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.1 12.0
13-7 15.7% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 13.3
12-8 14.6% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 13.0
11-9 11.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 10.9
10-10 8.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.6
9-11 5.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 5.0
8-12 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.7
7-13 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.5 2.6 5.8 5.3 1.7 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.5 46.7 53.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%