Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #235
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #229
Pace 74.3 #49
Improvement +3.4 #40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C+ C- D C C
Defense #244 C C F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.07 #286 -6.6 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #248 0.71 #254 -1.8 #272
Three Pointers 53% #12 1.15 #26 +9.9 #4
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.6 #132
Freethrows 0.31 #166 72% #213 0.22 #168
Second Chance 25.7% #311 1.14 #66 0.29 #236
Turnovers 18.7% #317
Total Offense -2.1 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.20 #244 -4.6 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.74 #148 +0.5 #150
Three Pointers 36% #313 0.89 #38 +4.9 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #151 +0.8 #152
Freethrows 0.28 #118 72% #164 0.20 #118
Second Chance 30.3% #166 1.03 #153 0.31 #158
Turnovers 10.9% #365
Total Defense -2.2 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #213 1.1% #276
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #121 -2.8% #129
Possession Length 16.8 #122 17.0 #115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #301 0.17 #189
Improvement +1.9 #87 +1.5 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 7.2% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 9.5% 30.5% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 75.4% 41.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 11.3% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 4.6% 16.3%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round2.7% 6.8% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 47 - 710 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 160 Marist L 56 - 75 45% -8  0 - 1 -22 -15 F D+ F -6 C- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 344 @Bryant L 75 - 82 67% -1  0 - 2 -16 -5 C- F D -11 F+ A- F
 Sun, Nov 16 202 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 55% -5  0 - 3 -14 +1 A- D+ F -14 F C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 228 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 37% +7  1 - 3 +25 +22 A+ B A- +5 A- D D
 Wed, Dec 3 319 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 78% -2  2 - 3 -12 -7 C F F -4 B- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 15% -1  2 - 4 -6 +7 A+ B- F -13 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 97 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 12% -9  2 - 5 -13 -11 D+ D- F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 278 Boston University W 77 - 64 70% +9  3 - 5 +3 +1 C F D+ +3 A+ B- D-
 Tue, Dec 16 326 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 61% +11  4 - 5 +18 +16 A+ C F +2 B+ B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 277 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 48% -8  4 - 6 -26 -17 F C- F -7 A- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 10 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  4 - 7 +1 +6 A C- B -4 C+ D C
 Mon, Jan 5 179 @Harvard W 76 - 68 29% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +10 +11 A- B+ C- -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Cornell W 102 - 91 28% +8  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +16 B B+ A+ -4 B C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 193 Penn L 74 - 84 53% -1  6 - 8 2 - 1 -15 -4 D C- D -10 D C F
 Mon, Jan 19 213 Princeton W 71 - 69 57% -3  7 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +8 B- D+ A -12 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Columbia L 69 - 79 48% -4  7 - 9 3 - 2 -14 -8 D- B+ D -6 B- B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 30 70 @Yale L 71 - 86 8%
 Sat, Jan 31 265 @Brown L 70 - 71 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 179 Harvard W 73 - 72 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 70 Yale L 74 - 83 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 265 Brown W 73 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Columbia L 75 - 81 27%
 Fri, Feb 27 193 @Penn L 77 - 82 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 @Princeton L 71 - 75 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 176 Cornell L 90 - 91 50%
Totals 10 - 15 6 - 8 -4 -2 C+ C- D -2 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 1.2 6.2 5.0 1.1 0.1 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.1 6.5 0.7 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.6 9.8 1.1 0.0 16.5 4th
5th 2.0 13.4 2.5 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.5 9.3 5.5 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.2 4.5 7.5 0.4 12.7 7th
8th 2.0 4.0 0.6 6.6 8th
Total 2.2 9.0 19.5 25.2 21.8 13.9 6.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 82.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1
10-4 37.7% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1
9-5 8.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.3% 21.9% 21.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-4 1.8% 11.2% 11.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-5 6.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.7
8-6 13.9% 7.8% 7.8% 15.5 0.6 0.5 12.8
7-7 21.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.1 0.8 20.9
6-8 25.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.1
5-9 19.5% 19.5
4-10 9.0% 9.0
3-11 2.2% 2.2
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.4 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%