Harvard
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 #179
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #217
Pace 61.6 #348
Improvement +3.3 #43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #181 C+ D+ D+ D C+
Defense #197 C- C C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.15 #184 +1.2 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #224 0.77 #155 -0.8 #224
Three Pointers 41% #183 1.13 #44 +2.2 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.6 #108
Freethrows 0.22 #360 81% #3 0.18 #321
Second Chance 27.7% #259 0.98 #270 0.27 #274
Turnovers 17.9% #278
Total Offense -0.6 #181

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.16 #184 -2.8 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #257 0.77 #210 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 39% #242 1.03 #196 +0.9 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #212 -1.2 #215
Freethrows 0.27 #77 73% #218 0.20 #90
Second Chance 30.8% #189 1.01 #131 0.31 #162
Turnovers 16.3% #187
Total Defense -0.8 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #119 1.3% #291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #111 0.8% #200
Possession Length 18.2 #264 18.7 #339
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.15 #123
Improvement +2.3 #68 +0.9 #134

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 9.0% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.8
.500 or above 39.6% 53.5% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 77.7% 45.2%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 2.1% 15.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round7.0% 9.0% 4.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 48 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 319 New Hampshire W 86 - 75 85% -6  1 - 0 -2 +9 A+ F B- -10 F C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 259 Northeastern L 60 - 77 75% -9  1 - 1 -25 -16 F F+ F -10 C D+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 339 @Army W 75 - 52 75% +9  2 - 1 +15 +3 B+ F F +14 B+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 160 @Marist W 56 - 54 34% +1  3 - 1 +5 -4 D+ D+ F +9 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 112 @Penn St. L 80 - 84 23% -2  3 - 2 +2 +16 A A+ D+ -14 D D+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 278 Boston University L 74 - 75 70% +2  3 - 3 -8 +1 B C- F -9 F C- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 130 @Boston College L 60 - 73 28% -9  3 - 4 -8 -2 C C- C- -8 F A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 344 Bryant W 56 - 53 89% +2  4 - 4 -12 -11 D+ F F+ -1 A- D D
 Wed, Dec 3 170 @Massachusetts L 71 - 78 37% -10  4 - 5 -5 -3 C- D+ C- -2 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 159 @Furman L 69 - 79 33% -7  4 - 6 -7 -0 B- F+ C+ -7 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 326 Holy Cross W 81 - 53 86% +16  5 - 6 +15 +13 B+ A+ F+ +5 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 21 @St. John's L 59 - 85 3% -9  5 - 7 -6 -2 B F D+ -4 D+ C A-
 Sun, Dec 28 209 @Colgate W 78 - 69 44% +2  6 - 7 +9 +6 A+ F C +4 B C C+
 Mon, Jan 5 235 Dartmouth L 68 - 76 71% -3  6 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -2 F A D+ -14 F+ F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @Columbia W 79 - 54 36% +13  7 - 8 1 - 1 +27 +20 A+ C+ D +12 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Princeton W 87 - 80 OT 68% -7  8 - 8 2 - 1 +1 +15 B+ D- A+ -14 B- F F
 Mon, Jan 19 193 Penn W 64 - 63 64% +1  9 - 8 3 - 1 -4 -4 C D- F+ +0 C A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 176 Cornell L 79 - 86 61% +2  9 - 9 3 - 2 -11 +3 D B+ C -15 C- D C-
 Fri, Jan 30 265 @Brown W 65 - 64 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 70 @Yale L 66 - 78 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @Dartmouth L 72 - 73 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 265 Brown W 68 - 61 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 70 Yale L 69 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @Cornell L 80 - 83 39%
 Fri, Feb 27 213 @Princeton L 66 - 67 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 193 @Penn L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 168 Columbia W 72 - 70 58%
Totals 13 - 14 7 - 7 -1 -1 C+ D+ D+ -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 1.3 9.8 9.3 3.0 0.2 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 10.1 9.8 1.2 0.0 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 4.8 11.1 1.2 0.0 17.1 4th
5th 1.3 10.9 2.1 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.2 5.8 4.2 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.4 0.3 6.8 7th
8th 0.7 1.8 0.3 2.8 8th
Total 0.7 4.1 11.8 20.5 24.7 20.8 11.4 4.8 1.2 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
11-3 81.8% 1.0    0.6 0.4
10-4 36.8% 1.8    0.6 1.0 0.1
9-5 7.6% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 29.6% 29.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 1.2% 28.0% 28.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
10-4 4.8% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 3.9
9-5 11.4% 16.1% 16.1% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 9.6
8-6 20.8% 12.1% 12.1% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.1 18.3
7-7 24.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 23.3
6-8 20.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 20.4
5-9 11.8% 11.8
4-10 4.1% 4.1
3-11 0.7% 0.7
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 14.6 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%